Four Seasons Later, The 2025-26 Hawks Might Be Better Than The 2020-21 ECF Team

Do the 2025-26 Hawks have an argument to be a better constructed team than the one that went to the 2020-21 Eastern Conference Finals?

Apr 15, 2025; Orlando, Florida, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) reacts after given a technical foul against the Orlando Magic in the fourth quarter at Kia Center. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

While the most successful team in Atlanta Hawks history has to be the 2014-15 team, the 2020-21 team is the most recent Hawks team that had a chance to make the NBA Finals. As a refresher, Trae Young and the Hawks took down both the New York Knicks and the Philadephia 76ers before taking the eventual NBA champions to six games in an Eastern Conference Finals duel versus the Milwaukee Bucks.

Last year, it was ridiculous to consider that the roster would be on the level of the 2020-21 squad. If anything, they seemed poised for a step back due to replacing Dejounte Murray with Dyson Daniels and Larry Nance. There was some optimism for the team's ceiling if Jalen Johnson could stay healthy, but it became clear that last year was a reset season for the Hawks. As predicted, the Hawks were a scrappy team that gradually fell off after Johnson got injured, eventually losing to the Heat in the play-in tournament.

The expectations are different this year. After trading for Celtics big man Kristaps Porzingis and drafting Georgia power forward Asa Newell, Atlanta reached a pair of huge free agent signings. The Hawks signed a marquee free agent in Wolves guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker to a four-year, $62 million deal in a sign and trade that sent a 2027 2nd-round pick (via CLE) to the Wolves. Then, the Hawks signed free agent guard Luke Kennard to a one-year, $11 million deal.

Apr 15, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Luke Kennard (10) makes a three point basket over Golden State Warriors guard Buddy Hield (7) in the first quarter at the Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images | Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

It's clear that the Hawks are gearing up to be one of the top teams in the East next year, so how does this team compare to the 2020-21 roster that actually earned that moniker?

Comparing Both Teams:

Back in October 2020, the Hawks were not viewed as a serious contender in the Eastern Conference. After the Lakers won the 2020 NBA championship, Michael Shapiro of SI had this to say about the 24th-ranked Hawks in his way-too-early power rankings for the 2020-21 season.

"The Hawks have a fair amount of talent after back-to-back lottery appearances, but this team isn’t going anywhere if they remain an absolute disaster on the defensive end. Perhaps Clint Capela can turn the tide. The former Rockets center isn’t exactly an All-Defense honoree, but he’s a legitimate 7’0” with plenty of shot-blocking prowess. Trae Young should feast in the pick-and-roll alongside Capela, and the defense should trend closer to No. 20 than the league’s worst mark. If Capela is healthy, he could make a major impact in Year 3 of the Lloyd Pierce era."

Recently, Bleacher Report's Andy Bailey had this to say about the 2025-26 Hawks, who he named as the 13th best team in the NBA.

"If there was a "we thought they would be better" award, the Atlanta Hawks would be in the hunt just about every year, so we have to approach this slide with a bit of caution. They've made that difficult, though, by Kristaps Porziņģis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to a team that already has Trae Young, Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels, as well as a possible developmental leap on the way for Zaccharie Risacher. The ideal roster around Young would likely include loads of length, defense and shooting, and this one now has it. In an injury-weakened East, Atlanta should push for a top-six finish. But ultimately, their success or failure may come down to the health of Johnson. For moments of last season, he looked poised to overtake Young as the team's best player, but a shoulder injury limited him to 36 appearances."

For some reference, the 2020-21 team finished with a 41-31 record and fifth in the East. Because the Hawks won 40 games just last season, the 2025-26 team needs to comfortably exceed the 41-win mark to show progress. They should have a better regular-season record than the 2020-21 team, but it is true that the 2020-21 season had less games than the usual 82-game slate. Therefore, it'd be more realistic to consider the 2020-21 squad as a 45-win team. Again, 45 wins shouldn't be an unrealistic standard for the 2025-26 Hawks to meet.

Comparison of Strengths

Apr 18, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) tries to get to the basket against Miami Heat guard Davion Mitchell (45) during the first half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

While it's hard to boil down everything that made the 2020-21 Hawks so good, there are a few statistical areas which they stood out in. Despite their recent reputation, the 2020-21 Hawks were an adequate defensive unit. They were especially good at closing out (3rd in 3P% conceded) while finishing 9th in defensive rebounding and 12th in opponent points per game during the regular season. Those numbers largely held true in the playoffs - they were 5th in opponent 3P% during the playoffs and 6th in defensive rebounding. The key to their defense was having a dominant rim protector in Clint Capela. Capela should have made an All-Defense team that year due to his ability to anchor an Atlanta defense that didn't have a ton of defensive star talent. Kris Dunn was a solid backcourt defender, DeAndre Hunter and Cam Reddish had some two-way moments and John Collins grew into being a passable defender. Even so, there wasn't a ton of help for Capela.

However, the biggest strength of the Hawks was their offense. After Lloyd Pierce was dismissed and Nate McMillan took over, the Hawks were one of the hottest teams coming out of the All-Star break due to their improved offense. Atlanta was 17th in points per game before the break, but rocketed up to 9th due to Bogdan Bogdanovic and Kevin Huerter shooting the lights out from deep (5th in 3P% as a team). John Collins was excellent as a play-finisher and improved his efficiency to become an integral part of the Hawks' offense. They weren't quite as dominant in the playoffs, but they were clearly a more offensively tilted team.

I think the 2025-26 Hawks have the potential to be much better on both ends.

While Capela's durability throughout the season sets him apart from Porzingis, there should be little doubt that the Latvian center is capable of anchoring a defense in the same way. He's been one of the best rim protectors in the NBA for multiple seasons, and he's more of a proven defender relative to where Capela was in 2020-21. Furthermore, unlike 2020-21, he won't be a one-man show on that end. Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are both among the NBA's best as on-ball defenders and perimeter stoppers. Daniels led the NBA in steals this past season while NAW's ability to chase his man around ball screens is unparalleled.

The top 10 in Ball Screen Navigation

1. Nickeil Alexander-Walker
2. Luguentz Dort
3. Miles McBride
4. Fred VanVleet
5. Andrew Nembhard
6. Kris Dunn
7. Max Christie
8. Alex Caruso
9. Haywood Highsmith
10. Cason Wallace

Metric Explainer pic.twitter.com/LHTjQDitky

— BBall Index (@The_BBall_Index) January 13, 2025

Furthermore, while he's not at the level of Porzingis in terms of defensive impact, don't underestimate what Onyeka Okongwu brings to this roster as a defender. Rim protection isn't a strength of his, but he can actually guard on the perimeter at a reasonable level.

The top 5 Bigs in Perimeter Isolation Defense last season

1. Bam Adebayo
2. Deandre Ayton
3. Domantas Sabonis
4. Walker Kessler
5. Onyeka Okongwu

— BBall Index (@The_BBall_Index) July 11, 2025

Zaccharie Risacher had flashes of being a good defender in Year 1, but he was held back by needing to adjust to NBA physicality. That shouldn't be as big of an issue in Year 2 - Risacher has gotten noticeably stronger this offseason and seems more prepared to take on the physical toll of guarding wings.

Offensively, the Hawks have a ton of capable shooters who are capable of going on hot streaks and igniting the offense. NAW, Risacher and Porzingis all profile as volume shooters that can space the floor. However, the standout in this area should be Luke Kennard. There aren't many players league-wide that shoot it better than Kennard. He hasn't shot under 40% from deep in five seasons and the volume with which Kennard lets it fly is formidable. He's in the 90th percentile for three-point frequency among all guards and he takes difficult threes as well. He shot a staggering 52% on corner threes last season while finishing in the 80th percentile for taking those shots. Slotting Risacher and Kennard into the roles previously occupied by Bogdan Bogdanovic and Kevin Huerter would make sense while Porzingis is a much better shooter from deep than John Collins ever was.

Comparison of Weaknesses

Against bigger rosters, the 2020-21 Hawks weren't able to hold up. They got outrebounded by the Bucks (46.3 rebounds to 41 rebounds) and didn't have a credible answer for the size the Bucks were able to field. Giannis, Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis all had strong series on both ends of the floor and Capela could only do so much to limit the damage. Collins was a fairly consistent rebounder, but he wasn't able to hold up as a defender against Milwaukee's physicality. Khris Middleton also torched the Hawks, marked by a 38-point outburst in Game 3 and a 32-point effort in Game 6.

The biggest blow, however, was Trae Young's injury handicapping the offense. Young was central to their offensive scheme and everything went through him. Ultimately, this proved to be their fatal flaw as there wasn't anyone who was capable of stepping up, getting their own shot and keeping Atlanta afloat while he was hobbled.

Apr 1, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks head coach Quin Snyder shown on the sidelines against the Portland Trail Blazers during the first half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Those are still problems that the 2025-26 Hawks must show they can handle. However, they are better equipped to solve those. They have five starter-level players in Porzingis, Okongwu, Johnson, Risacher and Daniels who are 6'8 or taller. Porzingis is also someone who has the ability to create his own shot, either through post-ups or shooting over smaller defenders. Even so, the real answer for the scenarios where the defense loads up on stopping Young start is Johnson. He's shown flashes of being a player that can create his own offense, but that needs to come to fruition this year. Whether as a playmaker and scorer, the expectation is that Johnson will take a big leap this year. The 2020-21 Hawks did not have any players who were realistically expected to create offense out of Young.

The key area that the 2025-26 Hawks struggle in when compared to the 2020-21 Hawks is the injury variance. Both Porzingis and Johnson are very injury-prone and Kennard hasn't been that durable either. He played 65 games last year, but played 39 and 59 games respectively in the seasons prior. There are likely going to be stretches where this team is hobbled and they're going to have to figure out a way to work around it due to the roster construction.

When examining the two teams, there's no question that the 2025-26 Hawks can be a significantly better roster than the 2020-21 team. It falls upon them to turn that into a reality and make a dark-horse push to represent the East in the 2026 Finals.