How could expansion affect the Miami Heat?

Expansion seems to be somewhere on the horizon, and that could mean big changes for the NBA landscape. It would trigger an expansion draft, and in the past, teams have been able to protect up to eight players who are under contract for the next season from being picked.

In the Miami Heat’s case, what would it mean for the six prospects, including 22-year-old Nikola Jović if hypothetically there was one at the end of the season? Most of them would be protected, but it seems that Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins and Davion Mitchell are the veterans who would stay, too.

Pelle Larsson, Kasparas Jakučionis, Jaime Jaquez Jr., and Kel’el Ware would all go higher in re-draft. To boot, Ware has the highest ceiling, possessing an inside and out game, with shot blocking and rebounding skills. He’s going to be a dangerous player when he figures out how to keep his motor running full-time.

The NBA’s current expansion draft rules:

- Expansion teams will get to “steal” unprotected players from teams
- Teams can protect 8 of their players
- Teams can’t protect players on expiring contracts or restricted free agents
- Only one player taken per team
- Contracts…
— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) March 16, 2026

After him, it turns into a real debate, yet the other three are impact players because they are effective at multiple tasks. It also helps that they all have great positional size.

And that leaves Jović and Myron Gardner.

Management decided to extend Jović before the season started, thinking it would be a bargain, but he hasn’t done anything to earn it. Now his deal is aging badly without having kicked in, and it would be a big help to the Heat if a team picked him from the expansion draft, which would also clear his contract.

He’s not a good attacker in the half-court, and he’s dropped off as a 3-point shooter. When he’s not playing with confidence, which happens often, it’s not worth putting him on the floor.

In fairness to Jović, he’s a very young man, and many people, in all walks of life, don’t have it together at that age. He’s talented, and although it may not look like it’s working out with the Heat, there’s still optimism he can be somebody when he’s older.

In Gardner’s case, losing him would hurt as well because he has the team‘s DNA as a hard worker who takes no BS on the court. Still, the team routinely finds players like him or quality production of equal value. Consider how the development pipeline has made contributors out of Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, Gabe Vincent, Rodney McGruder, and Caleb Martin. Their scout team will find others like that again.