Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jalen Johnson, Pistons vs. Jazz, Kon Knueppel)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Friday, Dec, 26.

Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson is a great prop target on Friday night. / Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

What a Christmas it was for yesterday’s picks in Peter’s Points, as six of the seven bets I gave out came through, with only Steph Curry 25+ points (he finished with 23) failing to hit. 

That has pushed this season’s record to over 30 picks over .500 with over 11 units in profit. It’s a long season, but this is a great start to the campaign.

The NBA doesn’t stop on Friday, as there are nine games to dive into, including some interesting Eastern Conference clashes between the Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat and the Charlotte Hornets and Orlando Magic.

I have player props that I’m eyeing in both of those games, and there is a home underdog later on in the slate that I believe is worth a bet. 

Can we keep the momentum from Christmas going? 

Here’s a complete breakdown of each pick for Friday night’s action. 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 113-82 (+11.54 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1404-1319-27 (+44.69 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Utah Jazz +9.5 (-105) vs. Detroit Pistons
• Jalen Johnson OVER 18.5 Rebounds and Assists (-117)
• Kon Knueppel OVER 17.5 Points (-124)

Utah Jazz +9.5 (-105) vs. Detroit Pistons

The Utah Jazz are just 10-19 this season and have lost four games in a row, but I’m buying them at home on Friday. 

Utah has played much better at home (7-10) this season, and the Jazz have covered the spread in 12 of those 17 games, posting an average scoring margin of just -3.1 points. Detroit, on the other hand, has gone 8-7 against the spread on the road, posting an average scoring margin of +4.9 points.

The Pistons have won 11 of those games, but can they win by 10 or more on Friday? 

I’m willing to buy the Jazz with Lauri Markkanen off the injury report and expected to play in this game. Utah is 10-15 when the All-Star forward is in the lineup, and he gives them a huge lift on the offensive end, which will be crucial against a Detroit team that ranks No. 2 in the NBA in defensive rating. 

Even though the Jazz have dropped four games in a row, they only lost by nine at home against Memphis in their last game with Markkanen out of the lineup. 

Detroit has been one of the best teams in the league this season, but I can’t pass up a chance to get this many points with Utah at home. 

Jalen Johnson OVER 18.5 Rebounds and Assists (-117)

Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson is making an All-NBA case this season, averaging 23.8 points, 10.5 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game while shooting 52.3 percent from the field and 37.8 percent from beyond the arc. 

The former first-round pick has turned into Atlanta’s best all-around player over the last two seasons, and he’s been on a heater in December, averaging 25.7 points, 11.8 rebounds and 10.3 assists per game.

Now, Johnson takes on a Miami Heat team that ranks No. 1 in the NBA in pace, meaning he’ll have a ton of possessions to pick up rebounds and assists on Friday. The Heat are 17th in opponent assists per game and 29th in the league in opponent rebounds per game this season.

Johnson has at least 19 rebounds and assists in eight of his nine games this month and 15 games overall this season. The star forward is also averaging 15.0 potential assists and 16.5 rebound chances per game, giving him a terrific floor when it comes to this prop. 

I think he’s a great bet with Miami expected to push the pace in this divisional matchup. 

Kon Knueppel OVER 17.5 Points (-124)

Charlotte Hornets rookie Kon Knueppel has been extremely consistent in the 2025-26 season, averaging 19.4 points per game while shooting 47.4 percent from the field and 41.9 percent from beyond the arc. 

He’s scored 18 or more points in six games in a row and 20 overall this season. He struggled against Orlando back in October, scoring just five points on 2-of-6 shooting from the field, but his role has increased in a major way as the season has gone on.

The Duke product is averaging 14.2 shots per game, giving him a great floor even against an Orlando defense that ranks 12th in the NBA in opponent points per game. 

I’ll buy Knueppel with this prop set well below his season average.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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