Hornets 2023 Free Agency Preview
Charlotte acquired four players during Thursday's NBA draft. Brandon Miller (#2) and Nick Smith Jr (#27) will join the main roster immediately, while James Nnaji (#31) is likely to play oversees for another year due to limited roster spots. It is possible Nnaji signs a two-way contract, but no player drafted before #39 has ever done so before. Amari Bailey (#41) is expected to sign a two-way contract, finally giving Charlotte a developmental point guard in their talent system. These selections will impact Charlotte's upcoming free agency decisions.
Hornets players currently under contract:
GUARDS (4): LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, James Bouknight, Nick Smith Jr.
WINGS (4): Brandon Miller, Gordon Hayward, Cody Martin, Bryce McGowens
FORWARDS (1): JT Thor
CENTERS (3): Mark Williams, Nick Richards, Kai Jones
Charlotte has three roster spots available, so let's explore the potential options.
1. Run it back
Re-sign Miles Bridges (RFA), PJ Washington (RFA) and Dennis Smith Jr (UFA) to fill the holes at power forward and back-up point guard. Bridges is likely to sign for around $18-25 million per year (likely including non-guarantees), while Washington may receive a slightly lower offer of $12-18 million per year. Smith Jr. could return as with a standard backup point guard salary around $4-8 million. Unfortunately, Kelly Oubre may not return due to the team's greater need at guard. One option to accommodate Oubre is to clear a roster spot and some salary. A package of James Bouknight or Kai Jones with Cody Martin would be one possibility. Another option could involve moving on from Gordon Hayward to open up a starting spot for Miller, both of which are unlikely.
Choosing this option would suggest Mitch Kupchak truly believes this years' struggles were solely a result of injuries and suspensions. I'm skeptical that's the case, the existing roster is flawed, but Kupchak has discussed about not "overreacting" to this past season.
Option No. 2: Explore trades
Mitch Kupchak won't let both of Charlotte's restricted free agents Miles Bridges and PJ Washington leave without getting something in return. Considering the struggles of LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller's scoring in the paint, prioritizing Bridges who ranks given his higher attempts and finishing percentage at the rim compared to Washington. One potential option Kupchak could explore for either player is a Sign and Trade (S&T), a strategy Kupchak has used in the past with Devonte' Graham and Terry Rozier. This approach allows the team to target free agents and players currently under contract on other teams.
Kupchak suggested following the draft the Hornets are searching for leadership this off-season. "Can you get a leader, somebody that can play and also be a force in the locker room? That would be helpful". Neither Bridges or Washington fit project to fit that role, however here are three names that might.
Draymond Green A well-known and vocal leader, he could be a highly sought-after player in free agency after opting out of his contract. A sign-and-trade deal involving Green and PJ Washington could benefit both teams, although Green might prioritize joining a team with a better chance of competing for a championship, making Charlotte less likely to be his top choice.
Grant Williams is another free agent, he could also be a target for Charlotte through a sign-and-trade with the Boston Celtics. Williams is a young player who serves as a leader both on and off the court. He also holds the position of Vice President of the NBA Players Association. Known for his skills as a 3-and-D power forward, Williams would be a reliable option as a backup power forward.
Harrison Barnes a former University of North Carolina star, might capture the attention of Hornets fans. He is an unrestricted free agent who had a statistically underwhelming season with the Sacramento Kings, making him potentially available. Barnes brings championship experience from his time with the Golden State Warriors and is highly regarded by his teammates, including De'Aron Fox, who praised his leadership abilities; "He’s been in big games. We look for that (leadership) in him. I think that’s what he wants to do. I mean, everyone here has met HB. We’ve talked to him. You can feel the aura around him. It’s always a calm aura. When he’s out there talking, everybody listens. He helps his team tremendously.”
Option 3: Create $18.6M in cap space and sign a free agent
If the Sign and Trade route is too complex, Charlotte could let one of Bridges or Washington walk in free agency by renouncing their cap hold (approx $17 million). This would open $18.6 million in CAP space that the Hornets would likely spend on a power forward or back-up point guard. Guard depth could be prioritized as we know that "Point Terry Rozier" isn't a good fit for either party, plus LaMelo Ball has averaged just 54 games a season so far in his career. But what about Dennis Smith Jr.?
Dennis Smith Jr. stole the hearts of the Hornets fanbase this past season, but his offensive limitations hinder the team's offense. Smith Jr. ranks in the 9th percentile for points per shot attempt and has a putrid 105.4 offensive rating when acting as the lead ball handler, ranking in just the 4th percentile. So what upgrades are available on the free agent market?
Bruce Brown's value has reached its peak after his impressive performance during the Nuggets' championship run. Despite being only 6'4" tall, he plays bigger than that and can easily fit into the rotation as a guard, wing, or forward.
Russell Westbrook, known for his close relationship with Michael Jordan, would be an intriguing addition. Despite a poor reputation among fans, NBA players still respect and look up to Westbrook as a leader. However, it is unlikely that he would be willing to accept a backup point guard role in Charlotte.
Gabe Vincent would provide the Hornets with a valuable backup guard option off the bench. Vincent's stock rose after an outstanding postseason, where he averaged 13 points, 1.4 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game, shooting with splits of 40% from the field, 38% from beyond the arc, and 88% from the free-throw line.
Overall, Charlotte has several options to improve their roster significantly this off-season. I anticipate them re-signing Miles Bridges, then acquiring a veteran leader through free agency or a sign-and-trade deal involving PJ Washington. The last roster spot will be used to sign a backup point guard. The team also has other options available, such as utilizing the Mid-Level and Bi-Annual exceptions, although limited roster spots might prevent their usage this year.
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