Why Lonzo Ball Makes Little Sense for the Hornets as a Backup Guard Option

Just one year ago, I wrote an article detailing how the Charlotte Hornets should make a run at then-Bulls guard Lonzo Ball.

It would give the Hornets another ball handler who can play excellent defense as well as playmake, and would give Charlotte an extremely quality starter for when [LaMelo Ball] is out.

While Lonzo did get moved in the offseason, he found himself as Ty Jerome's replacement with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and the Hornets instead made a deal with the Utah Jazz for Collin Sexton.

Cleveland has been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA after winning 64 games last season, and Ball has been no bright spot for them. His defense, as mentioned above, has taken no steps back. His defense ranks 44th in the entire NBA in defensive daily plus-minus, a stat that measures a player’s defensive impact on point differential per 100 possessions, and adjusts for game-to-game context.

In fact, the Cavs are allowing 2.5 less points per 100 possessions when Ball is on the floor versus when he is off the floor, forcing a higher turnover percentage, and allowing less offensive rebounds.

The Hornets have three players who play significant lead guard minutes when Lonzo's brother, LaMelo, is off the court: Collin Sexton, Tre Mann, and Sion James.

The Hornets' defense allows 1.1 fewer points/per 100 when Sexton is in, and Ball is off, allows 5.9 more points/per 100 when Mann is in, and Ball is off, and allows 3.1 fewer points/per 100 when James is in, and Ball is off. Outside of when Tre Mann is in the ballgame, statistically, the Hornets improve defensively when they have someone else playing lead guard minutes.

Yet, the team is 10.3 points/per 100 worse in medium to high leverage possessions when Ball is sitting on the bench.

With the trade deadline approaching in just two days, President of Basketball Operations Jeff Peterson has been searching for a backup guard to help keep the team afloat when Ball needs to sit.

None of the three backup guards the Hornets have can keep the team afloat on offense when their star is off the court. The offense gets 3 points/per 100 possessions worse with Mann in and Ball out, 4.4 points worse with Sexton in and Ball out, and 2.5 points worse with James in and Ball out.

In short, when LaMelo Ball is off the floor, the Hornets' offense is unable to stay afloat despite the fact that their defense plays well.

Lonzo Ball is on the trade market. Just last night, it was reported by Marc Stein and Jake Fischer that the Hornets and Cavaliers have discussed a deal that would send Lonzo to the Hornets.

Sources say there has been some preliminary conversation between the Cavaliers and Hornets about Ball trade constructions that could furnish Charlotte with second-round draft capital and thus enable the Hornets to pair the elder Ball with his younger brother LaMelo.

Why should the Hornets not make this deal?

Nov 29, 2021; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Charlotte Hornets guard LaMelo Ball (2) and Chicago Bulls guard Lonzo Ball (2) hug after the game at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

As mentioned above, the Hornets need a backup guard who can come in and keep leads/the offense afloat when LaMelo sits. If they make a deal for Lonzo, he may be one of the few guards on the market who would do the exact opposite of this.

When Lonzo is in the ballgame for the Cavaliers, they are 6.6 points per 100 possessions worse with him on versus when he is off. Their true shooting percentage, turnover percentage, and offensive rebound percentage all get worse.

Remember how above I mentioned that Lonzo was 44th in the NBA in defensive daily plus-minus? He's 292nd in offensive daily plus-minus. Amongst guards, he is in the 24th percentile of rim field goal percentage (55.6%), 54th of short mid-range 42.9%), and 7th of three point percentage (27.2%).

For reference, Collin Sexton, a player where the team gets 4.4 points worse per/100 with him in and LaMelo out, is 58th in ODPM.

If the Hornets plan to bring in their star's older brother for chemistry and veteran leadership with spot minutes every few games, bringing him in would turn out to be a great idea. However, if they bring him in with the intention to receive 15-20 minutes a night and lead bench lineups, they are in for a world of trouble.

At the end of the day, Jeff Peterson will do what is right for the team.

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