Utah Jazz: The Chance of Making the NBA Finals According to the Elo Forecast
The Utah Jazz are in the middle of their best run in franchise history. They sit atop the NBA standings with two full games between them and the second-place Lakers. At this point in the season, Utah has the highest probability of making the NBA Finals according to the Elo forecast. We'll explain the Elo forecast in greater detail below.
According to FiveThirtyEight's Elo forecast, the Jazz have a >99% chance to make the playoffs, a 36% chance of making the NBA Finals, and a 26% chance of winning the NBA Finals. After their win against the Clippers, the Jazz have an Elo rating of 1694. 1694 is the highest rating in the NBA.
According to FiveThirtyEight, that puts the Jazz right under the "Title contender" tier:
| Elo | Equivalent Record | Team Description |
|---|---|---|
1800 | 67-15 | All-time great |
1700 | 60-22 | Championship contender |
1600 | 51-31 | Playoff bound |
1500 | 41-41 | Average |
1400 | 31-51 | In the lottery |
1300 | 22-60 | LOL |
1200 | 15-67 | Historically awful |
Understanding Elo Ratings
Below is an explanation of Elo Ratings from FiveThirtyEight:
"The ratings depend only on the final score of each game and where it was played (home-court advantage). They include both regular-season and playoff games. The principal source for game-by-game scores is Basketball-Reference.com.
Teams always gain Elo points after winning games and lose ground after losing them. They gain more points for upset wins and for winning by wider margins.
The system is zero-sum. When the Denver Nuggets gained 30 Elo points by upsetting the No. 1 seed Seattle SuperSonics in the first round of the 1994 NBA playoffs, the Sonics lost 30 points.
Ratings are established on a game-by-game rather than a season-by-season basis. So you can see changes in a team’s “form” over the course of the year: The Toronto Raptors had a much higher rating early in the 2014-15 season than at the end of it, while the reverse has been true for the Cleveland Cavaliers."
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