The Magic Insider

How the Orlando Magic can contain Nikola Jokic's Nuggets

3 Keys to how Banchero's Magic slows down Denver tonight
Jan 15, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) dribbles the ball up court against Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) in the first quarter at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images
Jan 15, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) dribbles the ball up court against Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) in the first quarter at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

The 15-11 Orlando Magic visit the 19-6 Denver Nuggets in Orlando's first game back on the regular season grind after bowing out of the NBA Cup Semi Finals.

The best offense in basketball, led by perennial world-beater Nikola Jokic, is as lethal as ever; can the Magic contain the Serbian supernova?

With Vegas now in the rearview mirror, how will Orlando speed past the Nuggets in Denver?

1. Slow down Nikola Jokic without double teams

Wendell contests Jokic
Feb 6, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) shoots against Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero (5) in the second quarter at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Nikola Jokic is a one-man offense in and of himself, let alone when flanked by complementary play-finishers in every direction like Denver's done.

Orlando must throw the kitchen sink at Jokic to stand a chance, utilizing its gauntlet of lengthy defenders.

Make someone else beat you, but you can't leave them wide open with double teams to do so, because Nikola Jokic is just waiting for the split second you fall asleep to beat you with the pass.

Wendell Carter Jr. tends to play well in this matchup against the Joker throughout his career, averaging 16 Points, 8 Rebounds, 3 Assists, 1.2 Steals (2.0 STL + BLK) over 10 games.

Feed Wendell quickly to see if he's got his shooting rhythm going; add some easy points from the big man early on before defenses buckle down.

Orlando will need to win on the margins to overcome Denver's offense.

Getting Carter rolling right away on the offensive end could help keep him engaged on the defensive end the rest of the way.

Having an active big man defender like Wendell (Bitadze, Isaac) who brings two-way impact by competing on defense and on the glass while finding a role to fill offensively is one way to balance the scales versus Jokic.

2. Find the Four Factors Edge as as team

Jokic reaches behind Paol
Feb 6, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) and guard Jalen Pickett (24) defend Orlando Magic guard Jalen Suggs (4) in the second half at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Let's check the four factors for which aspect of the team game Orlando might have an edge in Denver, looking at stats via Cleaning the Glass:

Denver rates 4th in Point Differential, 1st in Offense, 18th in Defense.
Orlando rates 11th in Point Differential, 13th in Offense, 7th in Defense.

Orlando's 13th-rated Offense should have an edge over Denver's 18th-rated defense; but is Orlando's 7th-rated Defense strong enough to slow down the best offense in basketball?

With Franz Wagner unavailable, both of these margins shift further in Denver's favor.

Denver's #1 offense rates 1st in scoring efficiency, 4th at not turning the ball over, and 5th at drawing fouls; the only edge Orlando's defense has is on the glass.

The Magic rate #2 in defensive rebounding while the Nuggets rate in the middle of the pack at #16; winning the rebounding battle will be a swing factor in this one, especially with Orlando's defense preventing second chances by securing the defensive rebound after the first shot.

Denver's defense has more meat to pick off the bones for Orlando; the Magic's offense rates 10th at not turning the ball over and 2nd at drawing fouls, while Denver's defense rates 29th at forcing turnovers and 9th at not fouling.

Orlando shouldn't force high-risk plays against a team that isn't great at forcing turnovers to begin with, so making team-first decisions is key.

Orlando attacking the rack behind Banchero and Bane drives and foul-draws is one final margin Orlando can gain an edge: rack up the free throws.

3. Keep giving Bane more touches until the bubble bursts

Bane drives
Dec 13, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Orlando Magic guard Desmond Bane (3) drives to the basket on New York Knicks center Mitchell Robinson (23) and guard Jalen Brunson (11) during a game at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

In the fifteen games since drilling the game-winning buzzer-beater over Portland, Bane is averaging 22 PPG on 58% TS% , dishing out 20% of his team's Assists to just 9.5% of the teams Turnovers when on the court, piling up an overall impact of +1.8 BPM.

In that span, Bane's hitting 40% 3P% of his 6 threes per game, 48% 2P% of his 11 twos per game, and 97% FT% of his 4 free throws per game.

Being automatic from the pinstripe, it's clear that Bane can not shoot enough free throws for this team; finding ways to open up driving lanes for Bane to penetrate the paint has become a huge priority for Orlando.

I asked Bane about his 'bump-and-finish' mindset after he scored 13 of his 37 points against the Heat on such drives; he made a point to emphasize being the aggressor, being the one to initiate contact, hunt the paint

The limit on how many Bane drives to the basket Orlando wants does not exists; ride the Bane train until the tracks run out.


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Ryan Kaminski
RYAN KAMINSKI

Ryan is a basketball scout data analyst who has been covering the Orlando Magic, NBA, and NBA Draft with a focus on roster building strategy, data analytics, film breakdowns, and player development since 2017. He is credentialed media for the Orlando Magic along with top high schools in Central Florida where he scouts talent in marquee matchups at Montverde Academy, IMG Academy, Oak Ridge, and the NBPA Top-100 Camp. He generates basketball data visualizations, formerly with The BBall Index. He has two B.A.s from Florida State University in Business Management and Business Marketing. Twitter/YouTube/Substack: @BeyondTheRK