Could Mavs Tanking Talk Affect Luka Doncic’s Future?
DALLAS — Ahead of Friday's matchup against the Chicago Bulls, the 11th-ranked Dallas Mavericks face a thin margin for error amid their ongoing efforts to qualify for the final play-in spot in the Western Conference standings.
A win on Wednesday against the Sacramento Kings kept the Mavs' outlook alive. Doncic played an important part in helping Dallas to defeat the Sacramento Kings, finishing with 29 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists in the 123-119 victory while even showing impressive defensive sequences guarding De'Aaron Fox.
However, that result should not allow the conversation in the days leading up to the game to be forgotten.
On Monday, it was reported by Shams Charania of The Athletic that the Mavs had been "seriously considering" whether they should sit Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving for the rest of the regular season despite not being officially eliminated from potential play-in qualification.
“I think the Mavericks have to seriously look at whether you shut Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic down for these last three games of the season. … I’m told that the organization is seriously considering the possibility of shutting down those guys,” Charania said.
While some may believe the idea of tanking the rest of the season to maximize an outlook to retain a top-10 pick is the appropriate course of action from a team-building standpoint, it overlooks an important detail: Doncic's perception of even having that conversation.
Doncic has a highly competitive personality and takes pride in achieving success at the highest level. Coming off a Western Conference Finals run, the expectations to compete for a championship only intensified. The midseason trade to acquire Kyrie Irving from the Brooklyn Nets had the organization being brought up as title contenders, but the team has gone 9-16 since Irving's debut.
“It’s easy to look at all the talk of the negative, but let’s look at the positive of what he’s done on and off the court, and that’s the way we’re approaching it,” Mavs coach Jason Kidd said in early February. “We feel that the talent and his abilities to make us better are something that we needed, so we feel that getting him is going to help put us in position to win a championship.”
After Tuesday's practice, Doncic made clear that he wanted the team to compete, as long as there still is a chance to win games. When asked if he's considered shutting his season down, he put that idea to rest quickly.
“No, I’m playing tomorrow (against Sacramento),” Doncic said on Tuesday. “When there’s still a chance, I’m going to play. So, that’s not going to happen yet.”
There are many stories that portray Doncic's fierce pursuit of victory beyond basketball that should make it known how poorly the idea of tanking would be received. Whether he's playing chess or trying to lead the Slovenian men's basketball team in international play, the examples are clear — he wants to fight until the bitter end.
A superstar athlete's drive to achieve the highest level of success shouldn't come as a surprise, and there is more to consider here. What could Doncic think if those around him are not fully invested and determined to win at the highest level until the final outcome is sealed?
Think back to the 2020-21 season when Doncic reportedly was upset with former director of quantitative research and development Haralabous Voulgaris for standing up from his seat to leave with about 45 seconds remaining in a game the Mavs trailed by 10 points, per Tim Cato of The Athletic. Doncic perceived Voulgaris' actions as "quitting" on the team.” Voulgaris didn't attend another game that season.
"Doncic noticed Voulgaris’ early departure. In the locker room after the game, multiple league and team sources say he told teammates he viewed Voulgaris leaving before the game’s conclusion as him quitting on them. Voulgaris would not attend another game the rest of the year," Cato wrote.
If one member of team personnel leaving a single game early resulted in Doncic sharing a sentiment that the team was quit on, what's he to think about a report surfacing that mentioned the Mavs as "seriously considering" shutting he and Irving to maximize draft lottery odds?
Will the person(s) who leaked that report be perceived as quitting on the team by Doncic? Another question: why even take that risk with such few games remaining?
Doncic has long held the belief that he'd rather compete for a championship than win the MVP. Now, he's on a team that isn't equipped to contend for a title and is instead struggling to earn a play-in spot.
“I'd rather have the championship than MVP,” Doncic told The New York Times in February.
Now, Doncic isn't factored into the equation on either part of that championship or MVP hypothetical given how unsuccessful the Mavs have been this season. Despite once again being a common preseason MVP favorite, he's long been out of the conversation despite averaging 32.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 8.1 assists. Those numbers speak for itself, but to put it into perspective, the only other player to ever average 32-8-8 in a season is Michael Jordan in 1988-89.
Long before the Mavs had traded for Irving, the sentiment from national reporters like ESPN's Tim MacMahon as perceiving the Mavs being with a "two-year window" to build a contender around Doncic. Tanking for the sake of keeping a top-10 pick is about as opposite as it gets to contending for a title. The summer of 2024 is just a little over a year away.
Now to be completely fair, even if that report of the Mavs considering tanking was true, they haven’t gone through with it. But that could be due to Doncic’s strong reaction against the idea soon after it was reported.
If the Mavs do re-sign Irving and Christian Wood during his impending free agency, they will surely be gridlocked in terms of their financial landscape with players like Tim Hardaway Jr., Davis Bertans, Maxi Kleber, and JaVale McGee signed to poorly-valued contracts. There is a significant need to establish an identity to overhaul one of the NBA's worst defenses.
How are the Mavs going to manage to add wing defenders and a rim protector with such little resources? The current front office regime still has to show the it can use the taxpayer mid-level exception on a positive contributor after the McGee blunder. The team may not have a pick in either round of the upcoming draft if their first-round pick conveys to the New York Knicks. Regardless, there is still a need for the front office to find solutions to build a winner by whatever means necessary.
"Look, players don't talk like that, just like, 'Hey, I'm here for the next 17 years,’” Mavs owner Mark Cuban said before the Mavs’ win over the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday. “[Luka would] like to be here [his entire career], but we've got to earn that."
Even if the Mavs hold onto their first-round pick in the upcoming draft, they will only be able to trade their first-round pick in 2027 going forward due to their 2029 pick going to Brooklyn in the Kyrie trade. Without positive-value contracts to use for salary matching purposes, how much value can the team actually net in possible trade packages? That remains to be seen.
Before all of those challenging roster building obstacles can be attempted to be overcome by the Mavs, they are starting from a much more desperate position than they were just a year ago. Where they stand entering the offseason could have potentially been worsened by the idea of tanking being brought up when the NBA world was discussing the Mavs’ play-in chances.
The Mavs tanked to maximize their outlook before the NBA Draft Lottery in 2019, allowing them to trade up from the fifth pick to position themselves to select Doncic. Five years later, tanking was brought up again, while the two teams that passed on Doncic now have a stronger outlook entering this year's playoffs than Dallas does. As his five-year supermax contract plays out, how much longer will he believe that winning is possible to be achieved in Dallas?
"Win championships. It's amazing how that cures all,” Cuban said, when asked how the Mavs can keep Doncic for the duration of his career. “Before Giannis [Antetokounmpo] won, everybody was like, 'Where's he going? Where's he going? He's not staying. He's not staying.' [Nikola] Jokic, while they haven't won ... Dirk [Nowitzki] before [the Mavs won it all in 2010-11], right?
"There's no great player, no superstar, where they don't question, 'What are you gonna do if you haven't won yet?"
The Mavs need to send a message that they’re all about winning and nothing else going forward. Even though Dallas hasn’t capitalized on its tanking considerations, the current product Cuban and company have put on the floor this season makes it hard to tell the difference.
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