NBA Draft Lottery 2023 Primer: Breaking Down Mavs Odds
We are now down to single-digit days remaining until the NBA Draft Lottery gets underway on May 16, and the Dallas Mavericks are hoping to have some good luck that hasn't come for the franchise in its previous 16 visits. The Mavs enter the lottery with the 10th-best odds, but they could still potentially move up or move down.
Given how disappointing the 2022-23 season was for a Dallas squad that made the Western Conference Finals the previous year, paired with the fact that the Mavs lack high-quality trade assets after acquiring Kyrie Irving, the results of this lottery bear more weight than they would under normal circumstances.
According to Tankathon.com, here are the picks the Mavs have a chance at getting, as well as the odds they have for each of those picks:
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
No. 1 | 3.0% |
No. 2 | 3.3% |
No. 3 | 3.6% |
No. 4 | 4.0% |
No. 5 | 0.0% |
No. 6 | 0.0% |
No. 7 | 0.0% |
No. 8 | 0.0% |
No. 9 | 0.0% |
No. 10 | 65.9% |
No. 11 | 19.0% |
No. 12 | 1.2% |
No. 13 | >0.0% |
No. 14 | >0.0% |
For those doing the math at home, that's a 13.9-percent chance the Mavs have of potentially jumping into the top-4 picks, and overall, they have a 79.8-percent chance of keeping their pick. If Dallas' pick falls in between No. 11 through No. 14, it will convey to the New York Knicks to complete the 2019 Kristaps Porzingis trade.
The Mavs' self-proclaimed top priority this summer is to re-sign Irving, as losing him for nothing after trading two key starters and a future first-round pick for him would be a disaster. Those talks could come down to money more than anything else, but the Mavs having a top-4 pick would give them a clearer path to building around Irving and Luka Doncic than they currently have.
Follow Dalton Trigg on Twitter @dalton_trigg.
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