Is ESPN's 2026-27 Prediction for the Dallas Mavericks Too Harsh or Just Right?

The Dallas Mavericks had one of their worst seasons in recent memory last year, going just 26-56 while navigating injuries to Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, and many more.

They hope that with Kyrie Irving returning this year after missing all of last season, a second-year leap from Cooper Flagg, and the fringe additions of Santi Aldama, Marcus Sasser, Zaccharie Risacher, Tarik Biberovic, Morez Johnson Jr., and Sergio De Larrea will be enough to win more games.

But how many more games will they win?

FanDuel has the Mavericks' over/under at 32.5 wins, DraftKings has it at 33.5, and BetMGM has the Mavs at 34.5.

The general consensus seems to be that the Mavericks will be a little better, but not enough to make a serious postseason push.

ESPN writers made their predictions for the 2026-27 season on Monday, and they had the Mavericks finishing with 32 wins, 12th in the Western Conference, ahead of only the Memphis Grizzlies, New Orleans Pelicans, and Sacramento Kings.

That puts them out of the Play-In picture, as they have the Utah Jazz finishing 10th with 34 wins and the Golden State Warriors just one game ahead in 9th with 35 wins. That would put the Mavs well within striking range, but ultimately left out.

So, is this prediction about right for the Mavericks? Or are they going to be much better?

Apr 12, 2026; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Cooper Flagg (32) limps off the floor during the first half against the Chicago Bulls at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Postseason Push Unlikely for Mavericks

The Mavericks have definitely improved this offseason, but they did so by improving the back end of the roster rather than the top-end talent. Getting Kyrie Irving back is a huge boost, and Cooper Flagg is a premier talent, but they're probably one more significant piece away from being true contenders.

However, I do think that they'll finish higher than the LA Clippers, who ESPN has finishing one spot higher in 11th.

A team consisting of Brandon Ingram, Darius Garland, and Rui Hachimura just doesn't move me compared to Cooper Flagg, Kyrie Irving, and a solid amount of depth.

It'll come down to whether the Mavericks can get ahead of the Utah Jazz or the Golden State Warriors or not. The Warriors are aging out, but they did add an exciting older rookie in Yaxel Lendeborg, who should be able to contribute right away.

The Jazz have a lot of talent and won't be tanking anymore, but it's rare for teams to go from horrifically bad to postseason contender right away.

We're still two months away from the season starting, but my guess would be for the Mavs to finish 11th in the West with 35 wins.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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