What does Chris Duarte need to do to bounce back from his struggles for the Indiana Pacers?
Indiana Pacers wing Chris Duarte is shooting 31.3% from the field, 23.1% from deep, and averaging just 6.8 points per game through four games in 2022-23. After landing on the NBA All-Rookie Second Team in his first season, Duarte has floundered to open his second campaign.
"This is all stuff that I'm looking at closely," Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle said of Duarte, and the team's general struggles, after the Pacers second game of the season. The six-foot-six-inch wing moved out of the starting lineup in Indiana's next game.
The Pacers have only played four games, which is an incredibly small sample. There should be no panic or cause for concern about Duarte's play just yet, especially considering that he played well in the preseason. During a quartet of exhibitions, the second-year pro averaged 11.5 points per game in just 22 minutes and shot 51.4% from the field. His drop in impact entering the regular season has been sudden and unexpected.
Last night in Philadelphia, the 2021 lottery pick found his footing a bit. He shot 4/9 from the field on his way to nine points, and he added four rebounds and quality defense to boot — his matchups shot 1/7 from the field according to the NBA's defensive tracking data.
"Just keep improving defensively. Go out there and play hard," Duarte said when asked what he got out of training camp with the blue and gold this year. Even though his shot hasn't been dropping, the Dominican forward has defended well so far this year.
Most of Duarte's issues have been on the offensive end, where he has struggled to fit in and knock down shots. He built chemistry with his new-look team throughout camp and the preseason, but he's been in so many lineups in the early portion of the season that his growing chemistry hasn't been a boon yet.
The fit issues show up in the on/off numbers. The Pacers defense rating this season has been better with Duarte on the court than off, but on offense, the inverse is true. Through four games, Indiana has a 119.1 offensive rating with Duarte on the bench and a 109.2 offensive rating with Duarte on the court. He hasn't added to units in the ways that he did during his first regular season.
"It's been a rough first two games for all of us," Carlisle said before Indiana's third game when asked about Duarte. The Pacers were 0-2 at that point, but they won later that night and Duarte wiggled free for 14 shot attempts, a season high.
The problem was that only three of them went in. Duarte's defense was still great in that game, but his offensive woes continued.
Sometimes, the issue is as simple as the ball not going in the basket. Of the 14 shots the second-year wing took that night, most of them were open looks that just didn't go down. He faked a shot and then drove in for a contested look from closer to the rim on a few occasions, but in general he was taking shots that he should be attempting.
That has happened all season. Of Duarte's 32 shot attempts this season, 21 of them are classified as "open" or "wide open" by the NBA, meaning that over 65% of his shot attempts have been taken with the closest defender being four or more feet away. Duarte should be taking those shots.
Only eight of those 21 shots (38%) have gone in. Duarte's contested shots haven't been falling either, but during his rookie season, the University of Oregon product fared much better on open and wide open shots (roughly 45%). Canning lookss that he has proven he can make will naturally make Duarte look better, as it did on Monday night.
Duarte's skillset is more well known around the league now, and he is working on finding ways to impact the game with his ball handling. Because of those facts, he is being guarded differently while also to impact the game in more ways on the offense end. Essentially, he's adjusting, and his numbers should move closer to his expected averages as the season progresses. They might even improve from his rookie year.
But as he attempts to add to his game, it's hard to say where his percentages will go. And the figures that encompass Duarte's stat sheet are from an incredibly small sample size. He could just be on a cold streak. But his changed play style and reduced offensive impact so far have not helped the Pacers the same way he did last season, or even in the preseason.
"He did a lot of really good work this summer and in training camp. He'll be fine," Carlisle said of Duarte earlier this season. If the second-year pro keeps taking open shots and finding ways to fit in, the head coach will almost certainly be correct. But as the young wing adds to his game on a younger Pacers team, there could be some growing pains along the way.
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