The Reasonable Expectation for Tyrese Haliburton's Return

It's been just about a year since the hearts of Indiana Pacers and NBA fans alike were ripped out by an injury that raised many what-ifs regarding the 2024/2025 NBA Finals. Tyrese Haliburton burst on to the scene in last years playoffs putting the whole NBA on notice, big game after big game, and clutch shot after clutch shot.

But then, 7 minutes into Tyrese Haliburton's game seven, a game in whiche he already had 9 points, disaster struck, and Haliburton's Achillies popped along with Indiana's season.

Es Junio, pero no ESTE Junio….

Ya pasó un año y la herida aún no sana.

pic.twitter.com/TXrWfXGs0G
— The Night MVP (@TheNightMVP) June 1, 2026

So that brings us to this Summer, an abysmal Pacers season followed by some terrible luck in the NBA's draft lottery puts the Pacers in a tough spot and puts the Pacers best player in an even more intriguing one.

Why Haliburton Has a Favorable Situation

Week 48 pic.twitter.com/Jz8aR3pfuI
— Tyrese Haliburton (@Hali) May 26, 2026

Coming off an Achillies injury doesn't always bode well for basketball players as the calf and Achillies tendon play a huge role in bounce, lateral and vertical quickness, and the overall play of a basketball player.

So with that said, what are the reasonable expectations for the Pacers star next season?

For me, I expect Haliburton to be much of the same, not a step slow --maybe at the beginning-- but even a step faster. He's a 20/10 player, the Pacers added Ivica Zubac, and they will see more growth out of Jarace Walker, Obi Toppin, and Aaron Nesmith.

Indiana has a strong first seven in Haliburton, Nembhard, Nesmith, Siakam, Zubac, McConnell, and Toppin.

So, I expect Haliburton to be a 20/10 guy yet again, as he will get a full year of recovery time and a full training camp, enabling the Pacers star to be himself and help propel the Pacers back to the top of the Eastern Conference. But give him some time, getting back into the pace of full NBA play isn't easy, but then again, this is Tyrese Haliburton we are talking about, and every time he has been doubted, he looks in the face of adversity and laughs at it.

Nov 19, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers guard RayJ Dennis (10) and guard Tyrese Haliburton (0) react to a basket in the second half against the Charlotte Hornets at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Hear from others here at OnSi

Alex Golden

"Tyrese Haliburton has dealt with a plethora of injuries throughout his Pacers tenure, but if there’s anything he has proven to basketball fans it’s that you don’t doubt him. He’s never lost a playoff series that he’s been able to finish and he’s an elite performer when the lights are the brightest. His game is not reliant on athleticism and this extended time off has allowed him to get even stronger. Once we see Haliburton back on the court, expectations should be low. Fans and analysts should give him a grace period to get reacquainted with the speed and physicality of the NBA game, as he gets back into a rhythm. By the turn of the calendar year, Haliburton should be close to his original form, but there’s even a world where he’s better than before. Haliburton returning to the elite form he displayed the last few seasons isn’t a matter of if, but when."

Ethan J. Skolnick

"While expectations should be tapered some, because of the nature of the injury that Tyrese Haliburton, there's plenty working in his favor. First, he's been out a lot longer than Jayson Tatum was, before the Celtics star returned from his own Achilles' tear and was productive until suffering a mild compensatory injury in the playoffs. That extra rehabilitation -- nearly six months -- should help Haliburton hit the ground running, even though he has had the Shingles setback too. Also, Haliburton should get the benefit of ramping up in training camp and in the soft part of the season, rather than doing so in a playoff run as Tatum had to. While his minutes may be somewhat limited at the start, and his shot may suffer a bit as he works into his rhythm, there's no reason to suspect he will be at less than his best once the All-Star Break rolls around, heading into the postseason."

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