Would a Healthy Pacers Team Have Beaten the Knicks to Advance to the NBA Finals?

Would a healthy Pacers team have made it back to the NBA Finals this postseason? That's the million dollar question that Pacers fans across the world are asking themselves.

With how lackluster the Eastern Conference Playoffs have felt this season, it sure feels like Indiana would have had a smooth ride back to the NBA Finals had they been healthy.

And while this "what if" is impossible to answer with how many moving parts there have been since the tragedy that was Game 7 of the NBA Finals in 2025, I am going to do my best to look at what this Pacers team would have done had they been healthy.

Back to Game 7 of the NBA Finals

If we are going to answer "if the Pacers were healthy this season, would they have beaten the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals", we must also ask: if Tyrese Haliburton doesn't tear his Achilles in Game 7 of the NBA Finals, do the Pacers win their first NBA Championship in 2025?

The only way we can assume the Pacers are healthy enough to beat the Knicks in the 2026 postseason, is to assume that Haliburton never gets hurt in Game 7. And if Haliburton doesn't get hurt in Game 7 of the NBA Finals, you can't convince me that the Pacers aren't the reigning NBA Champions.

We have seen this season that if the Pacers don't have a healthy Haliburton, they have no chance of competing for a championship. Sure, they would have finished with a stronger record had they sustained health throughout the season, but they are not close to contenders without Haliburton, and they would have had zero shot of beating the Knicks in a seven-game series.

But let's assume that Haliburton were healthy this season and answer this question: "if the Pacers were healthy this season, would they have beaten the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals?"

The Knicks Rivalry

Reggie and Starks — Reggie Miller and John Starks | Getty Images/NBAE

From Reggie Miller's iconic eight-points in nine-seconds to Larry Johnson's phantom four-point play, there have been several miracles and heartbreaks that have taken place in this heated rivalry that stands 30 years old.

The hatred that both fan bases have for each other is real. Throughout this rivalry there have been hard fouls, headbutts (John Starks and Jalen Brunson), trashtalk, and disdain for one another, but there has always been a mutual respect.

Over the last two seasons, we have seen 13 epic playoff games between the Pacers and the Knicks, where Indiana was victorious in eight of them. New York found themselves on the losing end of both playoff series, but feeling as if they were a couple of plays away from being on the other side.

In 2024, the Pacers overcame a 2-0 series deficit by surviving in a must-win Game 3, thanks to Andrew Nembhard's stepback 31-footer to give Indiana a 3-point lead that eventually won them the game. This then put Indiana in position to force a Game 7 on the road in Madison Square Garden, where they shot a ridiculous 67% from the field and 54% from three to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals, winning 130-109.

The next year, Indiana overcame a 17-point fourth quarter deficit, as Aaron Nesmith turned into a flamethrower, sinking five threes in a row, which then set Tyrese Haliburton up for another buzzer beater, as the ball hit off the back of the iron, ascended into the rafters of MSG and then fell through the net to tie the game. The life was sucked out of the building as the Pacers stole victory from the jaws of defeat in overtime with a 138-135 win.

Indiana used the momentum they had from Game 1 to help them win Game 2 on the road, giving them a massive advantage in the series with three of the next four games being played at home. The Pacers coughed up a 20-point lead in Game 3, losing 106-100, but left Indiana with a 3-1 series lead after a dominant Game 4 victory.

New York defended their homecourt in Game 5, but the Pacers made sure that there would be no return to MSG for Game 7, as they clinched the East with a 125-108 victory in Game 6 behind terrific performances from Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard and Thomas Bryant.

Roster Changes from the Previous Season

Zubac Alvarado — Mar 13, 2026; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers center Ivica Zubac (40) shoots the ball while New York Knicks guard Jose Alvarado (5) defends in the first half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

The context of the past two series is improtant as we envision what a healthy Pacers team would have looked like against the 2026 Knicks. While the Knicks and Pacers core is mostly still intact, key departures and arrivals would have had significant impact on this series.

The most notable change for the Knicks was the firing of Tom Thibodeau and the hiring of Mike Brown. They also upgraded their playoff bench with the additions of Jordan Clarkson, Jose Alvarado, Jeremy Sochan, and Mohamed Diawara.

For Indiana, they had a much larger turnover. Myles Turner, Bennedict Mathurin, Thomas Bryant, Tony Bradley, and James Johnson are no longer on the roster. After a midseason trade, Indiana acquired Ivica Zubac and Kobe Brown, and also added Jay Huff, Micah Potter, Quenton Jackson, and Kam Jones to the roster throughout the offseason and season.

Talent wise, the Knicks got much better on their bench, while the Pacers completely overhauled their center group, and lost their best bench scorer in Mathurin. I'd give the additions and subtractions advantage to New York, but just slightly.

Playoff Stats

May 25, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; New York Knicks head coach Mike Brown speaks with media before game four of the eastern conference finals for the 2026 NBA playoffs against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Rocket Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images | David Richard-Imagn Images

This postseason, the Knicks are leading the NBA in:

-Points: 119.9
-Field Goal %: 51.5%
-3PT%: 40.0%
-Assists: 26.7
-Plus-Minus: +19.4
-Offensive Rating: 123.3
-Defensive Rating: 103.5
-Net Rating: +19.8

The rest of their postseason stats:

-Rebounds: 45.1 (4th)
-Turnovers: 13.6 (6th)
-Steals: 9.0 (5th)
-Blocks: 4.1 (13th)
-FT%: 75.5% (9th)
-Pace: 96.53 (8th)

Last postseason, here are how the Pacers and Knicks did:

Brunson McConnell — Mar 13, 2026; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) dribbles the ball while Indiana Pacers guard T.J. McConnell (9) defends in the second half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Pacers:
-Offensive Rating: 114.8 (3rd)
-Defensive Rating: 112.7 (8th)
-Net Rating: +2.1 (5th)
-Pace: 98.52 (3rd)
-Points: 114.1 (3rd)
-Rebounds: 40.6 (11th)
-Assists: 26.4 (1st)
-Turnovers: 14.3 (9th)
-Steals: 8.0 (4th)
-Blocks: 5.7 (4th)
-FG%: 48.4% (2nd)
-3PT%: 39% (1st)
-FT%: 78.5% (7th)
-Plus-Minus: +2.0 (5th)

Knicks:
-Offensive Rating: 112.7 (7th)
-Defensive Rating: 113.2 (9th)
-Net Rating: -0.5 (9th)
-Pace: 95.89 (9th)
-Points: 109.6 (5th)
-Rebounds: 42.6 (9th)
-Assists: 19.8 (14th)
-Turnovers: 13.8 (8th)
-Steals: 7.9 (6th)
-Blocks: 4.7 (10th)
-FG%: 45.5% (6th)
-3PT%: 34.9% (10th)
-FT%: 76.0% (11th)
-Plus-Minus: 0 (7th)

The Difference for New York

KAT CJ — Apr 23, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; New York Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) drives to the basket past Atlanta Hawks guard CJ McCollum (3) in the second quarter during game three of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Knicks went from 14th out of 16 teams to 1st in assists for this year's playoffs. That speaks to how well they're sharing the basketball. In addition to that they're leading the playoffs in Points, Field Goal Percentage, and Three-Point Percentage, which has given them the best offensive rating of any team in the postseason.

Defensively, they also rank number one in the playoffs, which is equally as impressive as their offensive output. They're top four in rebounds and top five in steals, which is creating points more opportunities to score on the other end.

This Year's Knicks Compared to Last Year's Pacers

Statistically, the Knicks' numbers this postseason run blows out the Pacers, but Indiana's numbers also include their seven-game series against the Thunder, which has a massive impact.

When comparing the Pacers and Knicks postseason Eastern Conference opponents, Indiana faced the No. 1 offensive team in Cleveland, the No. 7 offense in New York, and the No. 9 offense in Milwaukee.

Defensively, Cleveland ranked No. 5 , New York No. 9, and Milwaukee No. 15.

Kincks — May 25, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) moves the ball against Cleveland Cavaliers guard Sam Merrill (5) in the fourth quarter during game four of the eastern conference finals for the 2026 NBA playoffs at Rocket Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images | David Richard-Imagn Images

New York faced the No. 6 offense in Cleveland, the No. 9 offense in Philadelphia, and the No. 14 offense in Atlanta.

Defensively, Cleveland ranked No. 12, Philadelphia No. 14, and Atlanta No. 15.

Indiana had a much tougher lineup of opponents. New York has been dominant this postseason, but their path to the Finals was easier than the Pacers.

The Zubac Addition, The Mathurin Subtraction

The Pacers would have a new wrinkle to their team with Ivica Zubac joining at the Trade Deadline. It would have taken sometime for him to get acclimated with his teammates, but similar to how the Pacers integrated Siakam into their team, they were able to figure it out by the playoffs.

And in this scenario, we are assuming the Pacers and Knicks would be playing each other in the Eastern Conference Finals, which would have given Zubac two full rounds to develop chemistry with the team.

Without Turner's floor-spacing, the Pacers would look different, but Zubac would give them an interior force they didn't have previously. His screensetting, passing, rebounding and low-post scoring would be a weclomed addition on the offensive side of the floor.

Defensively, guarding KAT on the perimeter would present challenges, but Myles Turner struggled severely with that matchup and Indiana was able to have success in spite of that. If Zubac could even get close to what he did defensively with Los Angles in 2024-25, he would be an upgrade over the slow-footed Turner, who can also grab rebounds in traffic make the glass more of a challenge for Mitchell Robinson.

Overall. I think Zubac would be a significant upgrade over Turner overall. What Huff and Potter provide is different than what Bryant and Bradley brought, and I think it would make Indiana worse depth wise. If Zubac got in foul trouble the Pacers would really be hurting, but this would just mean that Toppin plays more small-ball five.

Replacing Mathurin

Against New York, Mathurin was up and down last season. After Game 1, the most minutes he played off the bench was 25 in Game 5 when the Knicks dominated the Pacers from start to finish. He spent a majority of the series in-and-out of the lineup as he struggled with the defensive matchups and got pulled quickly.

His best game was in Game 4 when the Pacers won 130-121 to take a commanding 3-1 lead. Mathurin scored 20 points in 12 minutes, going 5-8 from the field and 10-11 from the free throw line.

Indiana would unlikely be able to match this performance with Walker or Sheppard, but the Pacers would just tighten their rotation and play all their starters, plus McConnell and Toppin more minutes to put the best group on the floor.

Final Predictions

og Pascal — May 31, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; New York Knicks forward OG Anunoby (8) boxes out Indiana Pacers forward Pascal Siakam (43) for a free throw in the second quarter during game six of the eastern conference finals for the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Now with everything laid out, would the Pacers really beat the Knicks this season if they were healthy?

History has favored the Pacers in this head-to-head matchup since the start of the 21st century. Indiana has defeated the Knicks in 2000, 2013, 2024, and 2025, with an overall record of 16-9.

I think this series would go at minimum six games, but most likely seven. The Knicks are better than they were the previous two postseasons, but it's hard to imagine that Indiana wouldn't be able to give New York fits that their three playoff opponents this run couldn't.

Dec 18, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers guard/forward Andrew Nembhard (2) dribbles the ball while New York Knicks guard Jordan Clarkson (00) defends in the first half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

New York would be hellbent on getting revenge after being eliminated two straight seasons by the Pacers, but history tends to repeat itself.

Ben Stiller, Timothée Chalamet, Tracy Morgan, Spike Lee, and the 90s Knicks would once again be cursing the Pacers name, as Indiana would appear in the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history in back-to-back season...if they had been healthy for the 2026 playoffs.

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