What To Expect From Jalen Duren’s Rookie Season
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In a league where shooting has become king, why did Troy Weaver, the general manager of the Detroit Pistons, become so interested in a prospect who didn’t attempt a three his whole college career to trade for pick 13 and take him there? Of course, that player is the former Memphis Tiger center, Jalen Duren. While he might not be the shooting 4 or 5 big man that it seems every front office has become infatuated with, the 6-11, 250 lb Duren presents a skillset still valuable to the modern league.
Fans were first able to get a sneak peak of him in July when he played in the Pistons summer league games. The former top high school recruit had some “get you out of your seat” type of plays like on the first play of the Pistons slate in Vegas when Jaden Ivey and Duren connected on a perfectly run alley-oop design for the big man.
Despite the exciting highlights, the 18 year old finished with a relatively mundane statline of 11.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks per game. However, don’t let that be a damper for any expectation for his rookie year.
The Body of a Man-Child
One word — size. The first thing that comes to mind when watching his college tape is his huge bruising frame. He wasn’t measured at the NBA combine so the numbers we have to work with are from his pro day at Memphis where he was listed at 6-11 with shoes on. He weighed in at 250 lbs, and had an outstanding 7 foot-5.25 wingspan. Despite being the youngest player in the draft Duren has the body of a 8 year NBA veteran just hitting his prime.
Beefing Up the Interior
Unsurprisingly, Duren uses his great physical gifts to his advantage in the paint. In college, he became one of the best shot-blockers in the country, sending shots into the fifth row or off the backboard 20 feet, just as he did in summer league. He averaged 2.1 blocks per game for Penny Hardaway’s squad becoming a feared big to go against in the paint.
His technique when contesting shots looked very sound in Memphis. He jumps with verticality and has the size to absorb contact from opponents. His rare quick feet and straight line recovery for a center aids him in catching up to drivers and makes him a great asset for a switchable lineup. Duren showed multiple times in college his ability to switch onto guards and stay with them on the perimeter. That’s a skill that can’t be underestimated in a league that’s all about matchups. His speed and defensive IQ also showed on drop coverage for pick-and-rolls, yet another skill Dwane Casey will surely use to his advantage.
Dare I Say Andre Drummond-esk Rebounding
Not to scare fans from the Stan Van Gundy era, but Duren’s top-tier rebounding is reminiscent of former Piston big man Andre Drummond. The Montverde Academy alum showed his excellent rebounding skills in college averaging 8.1 rebounds a game. His vertical leaping ability is very rare for a player of his height and weight. JD uses that bounce to rise above his opponents even in battles for boards that he shouldn’t win. He brings solid effort on the glass showing the discipline to stick to physical box-outs.
Scouts have projected Duren to become an elite rebounding big in the NBA. So long as he continues to bring the effort on the glass he can be expected to haul in double digit rebounds in games he starts.
A Clear Lob Threat
What happens when you combine a monstrous frame with a 37” vertical? Well, it’s not rocket science, highlight reel dunks is what you get. Duren is as clear of a lob threat as it gets. He had many explosive dunks in his time at Memphis and will continue to do so in Detroit. The 18 year old has a keen sense for backdoor cuts and running the floor in transition to receive alley-oops from teammates. Expect that to continue along with dominating pick and roll play. Jalen Duren is a dream roller for PnR’s with his size and leaping ability, he’ll make it easy for the guards to find him up high coming off the picks.
The Room for Improvement
The biggest critique that Duren received in the pre-draft process was that he relies on his physicality too much. In most aspects of his game, it can be pointed out that he lacks the detail and skills.
On offense, he doesn’t have the post-up footwork, lacked great touch on turnarounds, and struggled on fadeways out of post moves. These are the skills that will likely prevent him from a lot of early minutes. However, they will come with time and Duren has a great coaching staff from Dwane Casey who developed Pascal Siakam to former all-star Rashard Lewis now on staff.
Another aspect of Duren’s game that has to be mentioned is the shooting. As was said earlier, he didn’t attempt a three all of college. On jump shots he went a disappointing 8 for 22. Nonetheless, the potential seems to be there. His form has solid mechanics and a high release point that presents a solid foundation. Sometimes he has a tendency for a small pause at the top of his stroke, however, it’s a relatively smooth shot that just needs to be refined. The Pistons have placed a clear emphasis on his shooting as many videos have gone around social media of Duren practicing long mid-rangers or threes. With the reps and the guidance of Rashard Lewis, it’s not hard to see how he could turn into a solid shooting big man.
If the former Tiger can stick to the development plan for his offensive improvement, along with some polishing on his defensive technique, it’s scary to think about the player Duren could become. His potential is sky high when the raw gifts he already has are taken into account.
Rookie Year Predictions
When you consider the depth still at the center position despite the Olynyk trade, it’s hard to say the rookie will be an instant impact for Detroit. To start the season, he’ll likely be behind Isaiah Stewart and possibly veteran Nerlens Noel. While Stewart playing the four is something that’s been discussed before, it’s hard to imagine Beef Stew playing a lot there after the Pistons got Bojan Bogdanovic and re-signed Marvin Bagley III.
Still, if Duren is the “jewel” Dwane Casey thinks he is, I predict he will be the starting center by the end of the season. Whether that happens before the new year or in March, I don’t know, but his potential is clear and after time it’ll be hard for the Pistons to keep him on the bench. As far as his statline, I’ll predict the following relatively conservative estimate:
7 points, 5 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 1 block per game
