Can the Rockets Sport a Stable Center Rotation in 2019-20?

P.J. Tucker should have little trouble acquitting himself if called upon to log minutes at the five this season. Standing 6'6" and resembling a refrigerator with arms, the stout forward dove headfirst into the role in 2018-19 with significant time as a backup big behind Clint Capela. Tucker switched with abandon and banged on the boards. His presence at the five was a necessity against the Warriors in the Western Conference semifinals. There are few more versatile defenders in basketball.
Tucker can certainly provide quality minutes at center, though it's worth considering the toll it takes on the Texas product. Even if Tucker is made of marble–a notion we can't immediately dismiss–he is still ceding nearly a half-foot to most centers, and he'll turn 35 in the 2020 playoffs. So will Tucker play less minutes at the five this season?
"I hope so, I hope so," Tucker said at the Toyota Center on Thursday.
Mike D'Antoni and Daryl Morey likely had a similar wish entering the offseason. Houston signed 18-year veteran Tyson Chandler on July 18, and Ryan Anderson returned on Sept. 25 after a split 2018-19 in Phoenix and Miami. Houston finished with the NBA's No. 29 defensive rebounding rate last season. Chandler and Russell Westbrook (and his 11.1 rebounds per game) should help raise the mark in 2019-20.
Chandler is likely to see the most significant minutes behind Capela at center, at least on nights he doesn't earn a DNP (Rest). There's plenty of tread on his tires after 31,398 career minutes, though Chandler appears spry enough to log legitimate time behind Houston's primary big.
The No. 2 pick in the 2001 NBA Draft played 16.4 minutes per game with Los Angeles last season after a delayed exit from Phoenix, with a stilted second-half for Los Angeles leading to more playing time for the Lakers' young bigs. Before that, Chandler played 25-plus minutes in back-to-back years for Phoenix. The Chandler of two years ago would be a huge boost for the Rockets. He can stretch the floor vertically and stand as a sturdy rim deterrent. Houston may have to relax on the switching with Chandler in the game. It's likely the best solution aside from shopping for outside options.
Isaiah Hartenstein is a fringe rotational player, though an intriguing one after a G League Finals MVP. Ryan Anderson will be looked to as a third center option outside of his responsibilities as a backup four. Anderson returns to Houston after being traded to Phoenix in Aug. 2018, playing 15 games with the Suns before a brief stint with the Heat. His contract is largely non-guaranteed, though there is optimism emanating from Rockets camp.
Anderson will need to be hidden defensively when he's a second-unit five, and frankly, his center designation could be largely nominal. Tucker is likely to soak up major minutes as the second frontcourt player next to Anderson in those units, often rotating onto opposing centers. Perhaps Anderson can handle some defensive center minutes, though it's not likely in the postseason.
"Probably P.J. will have to be the four [with Anderson]," D'Antoni said on Tuesday. "Danuel House could do a little bit of it. ... But P.J. would be the better matchup with [Anderson]."
Anderson's offensively role is clearly defined, a rarity amid Houston's roster turnover. At times, he'll engage with James Harden and Russell Westbrook on the pick-and-pop. Otherwise, he'll stand in the half-court ready to let it fly. Anderson's range is a spacing luxury, even if his percentage dips closer to 35% than 40% in spurts.
The 2008 first-round pick could be a critical floor spacer in units with Westbrook, groups that have ran at a breakneck pace in the preseason. Houston finished with the league's No. 13 pace in 2017-18 with Anderson, a far cry from their No. 27 mark last year. Westbrook's presence should push Houston toward the first half.
"[Westbrook] is kind of doing all the running," Anderson said. "You kind of just get to your open gaps. ...give [Westbrook] open lanes to drive to the basket, draw fouls and score points."
The Rockets hope they've cobbled enough bodies behind Capela to create a workable center rotation, one that doesn't need plenty of minutes from Tucker. But ultimately, Houston's will need consistent quality performances from Capela in the postseason. Last year's performance against Golden State was disappointing, though not immediately disqualifying. Draymond Green remains a nightmare at center against the Rockets, which isn't uncommon for any opponent of the three-time champion. Capela posted a plus-19.2 net rating against Rudy Gobert in the West semifinals. He's held Nikola Jokic to 48.2% shooting in 11 contests. Green is one of the few bigs to neutralize Capela's athleticism advantage. The rest of the West may not be so lucky.
"His natural, god-given ability is impressive," Chandler said. "The way he runs the floor, he has great touch with both hands. I keep telling him, he's huge to what we want to accomplish."
