Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder: 3 Best Bets

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The Houston Rockets return home tonight to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder for the first time this season. The Thunder is a formidable opponent, currently second in the Western Conference. The Rockets, regrettably, are riding a three-game losing streak in the wake of continuing to be winless on the road.
Returning home means safer waters, as they are 8-1 on the season in the Toyota Center. That being said, they are narrow underdogs.
The Thunder is riding a two-game win streak and (allegedly) has the best rookie in the league thus far in Chet Holmgren. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is making another All-NBA run, and his supporting cast of Josh Giddey, Holmgren, Lu Dort, and Jalen Williams are legitimate contenders in the Western Conference.
The Thunder enter the game with a clean injury report, while the Rockets will be without Victor Oladipo, Amen Thompson, and Jock Landale. Tari Eason is questionable. Below we have our best picks, courtesy of the lines at SI Sportsbook.
The Lines
Point spread: Thunder -2.5 (-110)/Rockets +2.5 (-118)
Moneyline: Thunder (-133)/Rockets (+105)
Over/under: 226.5
Our Picks
Safe pick: Alperen Şengün OVER 22.5 points (-125)
With Chet Holmgren’s defense, this is not the guaranteed pick it usually is. Alperen Şengün has averaged 22.9 points over his last ten games and remains eager to shoot from deep, which will be key in this game. If he can create separation off-ball and then catch and shoot, Holmgren simply won’t be able to keep up.
Opponent pick: Chet Holmgren OVER 1.5 block (-188)
Jabari Smith Jr. has suggested that he is eager to go up against Holmgren, and if Houston pounds the paint, they might be able to overcome Holmgren. That being said, his getting two blocks is more than likely. He has only fallen under this line seven times, and it sounds like he will have plenty of chances to pin shots to the backboard. Even if he’s overwhelmed down low, he should be able to luck into a couple of blocks at least.
Team pick: UNDER 226.5 total points (-110)
These two teams combine for 229.8 points per game on average, but the hounding defense Houston brings to the table should slow down the fifth-best offense in the league. Both teams have a top-ten defense, so Houston should be slowed down as well. The only player on the Thunder who can overwhelm Houston’s defense is SGA. Having just one elite offensive weapon on each team (Alperen Şengün for Houston) is not a recipe for a high-scoring game.
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Jonah Kubicek has been writing about the NBA since 2021, covering the Pistons, Jazz, Spurs, Magic, Rockets, and Knicks. As a lifelong Spurs fan living in Michigan, he never misses an opportunity to bring up the 2005 NBA Finals (you should have guarded Horry!). He is a long-suffering Tigers fan and closely follows the NFL, although he never found an affinity for the Lions. Jonah graduated from Oakland University with a degree in History and spends his spare time playing tennis or reading. Follow Jonah on Twitter for updates on Tre Jones and other NBA news.