Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs: 3 Best Bets

The San Antonio Spurs host the red-hot Miami Heat tonight, but SI Sportsbook has SA as close underdogs, which means our best picks are mostly positive.
Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs: 3 Best Bets
Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs: 3 Best Bets /
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The San Antonio Spurs are looking to avoid their fifth straight loss as they host the defending Eastern Conference champions. The Miami Heat enters the game 5-4 on the season, behind the efforts of Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro.

After a deep playoff run last season, the Heat look more like the seventh-seed team that barely made the playoffs last season. However, any team led by Erik Spoelstra will be among the NBA’s best when the season ends.

Adebayo will be one of Victor Wembanyama’s biggest tests so far. Standing at only 6-9, Adebayo can move better than most bigs and is incredibly strong, meaning Wembanyama will have to rely on his height and shiftiness if he wants to make a big impact.

The Heat won’t be putting forth their best version of themselves. Tyler Herro won’t be playing, and Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin will both be questionable. For San Antonio, Tre Jones is questionable.

San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich talks to Jeremy Sochan during the third quarter against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden.
With Tre Jones a game-time decision, much of the offensive burden will fall on Jeremy Sochan / © Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

With tipoff slated for 6:00 pm, SI Sportsbook has odds in place for bettors, and we have our top picks below.

The Lines

Point spread: Heat -1.5 (-118)/Spurs +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Heat (-133)/Spurs (+105)

Over/under: 221.5

Our picks

Safe pick: Devin Vassell OVER 17.5 points (-118)

Picking Devin Vassell to hit his over, whatever it may be, is an easy pick for every game the Spurs play. In the five games this season when healthy, Vassell is averaging 21.8 points. He is the best scorer on the team; he and Cedi Osman are the only two Spurs ranked in the top five on the roster in two-point percentage and three-point percentage, and he takes twice as many shots per night. If Butler plays, Vassell will have a tough matchup, but in their last two contests, Vassell has averaged 18 points.

Opponent pick: Kyle Lowry OVER 1.5 threes made (-200)

Not the best odds here, but Lowry averages two threes made this season. In Miami’s last two games, he has made eight total threes, so he has the hot hand. On top of that, the Spurs are abysmal at guarding the three-point line, and without certainty that Tre Jones will play, Lowry might be defended by Blake Wesley or Devontae’ Graham at times. Neither of them are known as defensive stoppers.

Team pick: Spurs to win (+105)

This could also be labeled a “risky pick,” but with a night of rest and no travel, the Spurs will be looking to finally snap their losing streak. Miami boasts the ninth-best defense in the league, but the Spurs dropped 110 on the league-best Timberwolves. If Jimmy Butler doesn’t play, Miami’s offense will be very shorthanded, so the Spurs should be able to take advantage of a concentrated defensive effort.

The close point spread should tell you all you need to know: the oddsmakers aren’t as confident in Miami as usual. Miami has won four straight games, but they played last night in Atlanta, so fatigue might be setting in, while the opposite is true for the Spurs.


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Jonah Kubicek
JONAH KUBICEK

Jonah Kubicek has been writing about the NBA since 2021, covering the Pistons, Jazz, Spurs, Magic, Rockets, and Knicks. As a lifelong Spurs fan living in Michigan, he never misses an opportunity to bring up the 2005 NBA Finals (you should have guarded Horry!). He is a long-suffering Tigers fan and closely follows the NFL, although he never found an affinity for the Lions. Jonah graduated from Oakland University with a degree in History and spends his spare time playing tennis or reading. Follow Jonah on Twitter for updates on Tre Jones and other NBA news.