Suns Fall Just Short of NBA Finals Title in B/R Playoff Predictions
The Phoenix Suns have all the puzzle pieces. Now, it's time to find out if they fit.
Kevin Durant was acquired weeks ago but has yet to make his debut. Reports suggest next Wednesday when Phoenix takes on the Charlotte Hornets is when he'll potentially return, which would give Durant and his teammates exactly 20 games together before the postseason.
The Suns are no strangers to the playoffs, making a trip to the 2021 NBA Finals before grabbing the West's No. 1 seed last season. With two pieces in Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson out of the picture, we'll see what the new-look Suns can do on short notice.
In their updated playoff predictions, the Suns are expected to make quite the deep run by Bleacher Report
Grant Hughes sees the West panning out in the following way:
1. Denver Nuggets
2. Memphis Grizzlies
3. Phoenix Suns
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Sacramento Kings
6. Minnesota Timberwolves
7. Golden State Warriors
8. Los Angeles Lakers
The Suns - matched up with the Minnesota Timberwolves - get past them in five games.
"Anthony Edwards will have an undeniably great night or two, but Phoenix's firepower will be too much for him to overcome on his own. If you think the Suns are the quiet favorite to make it out of the West, then this is a series they have to win handily," said Hughes.
Round two features a Suns-Warriors battle, which sees Phoenix emerge ahead in six games.
"Somehow, amid myriad injuries, the Suns have defended at a top-10 clip this season. They're even sneakily effective at forcing turnovers, which should set off alarms for the Warriors, who cough up the ball more often than anyone but the comically chaotic Houston Rockets. Throw in the question marks attached to Curry's health following a highly unusual injury to his left lower leg, and the Suns profile as the safer bet," said Hughes.
Now, faced with a daunting task of defeating Denver in the Western Conference Finals, Phoenix heads back to the NBA Finals in six games.
"That 2021 Phoenix team feasted in the mid-range against Denver, and it'll surely do the same with Durant joining Paul and Booker. The Nuggets have tried to mix their coverages and make the best of Jokić's iffy mobility on D, but they remain a middling outfit on that end. The Suns are going to get the two-point jumpers they want, and there's a real chance they run hot enough to force adjustments that open up opportunities at the basket and from deep. Denver can't take everything away—not with Durant involved," said Hughes.
"Lastly, Ayton has had a mostly disappointing season and conspicuously no-showed in the 2022 playoffs. He's enjoyed success against Jokić throughout his career, though, and is averaging 18.9 points and 11.6 boards across 14 matchups. If the Suns get anything close to that level of production from their mercurial center, Denver will be in trouble."
Now, making their second trip to the NBA Finals in three seasons, the Suns are matched up with the Boston Celtics. Here's Hughes' full analysis of how things go down:
"As far as obstructions to set up against Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Chris Paul, you can't do much better than Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon. Additionally, Robert Williams III will be lurking in the corner, assigned to the Suns' least threatening shooter, waiting to swoop in and erase close-range attempts if the perimeter fortitude fails.
"So while Phoenix's theoretical offensive excellence has been key to it advancing this far in our projections, it feels most likely that defense is going to determine this year's champion. Boston has the bodies, the scheme and the track record to foster belief that it can slow the Suns, while the reverse is harder to imagine.
"That said, the Celtics have a yearslong habit of self-destruction on offense. If they get stagnant or turn the ball over 15.1 percent of the time like they did against the Warriors in the 2022 Finals, Phoenix could capitalize. Surely Boston won't be quite so careless with the rock in this series; the turnover rate it posted against the Dubs last year would be 25th in the league this season. Anything in the neighborhood of their 13.3 percent figure this year, which ranks as the sixth-best in the league, would be fine.
"Another potential pivot point: three-point shooting. Boston fires off 42.2 triple tries per game, representing the second most in the league behind only the Warriors. Phoenix lags well behind at 32.6 deep attempts per contest, with the caveat that we haven't seen Durant with the team yet. Both teams shoot an identical 37.8 percent on threes, so the 10-attempt-gap may help the Celtics win the math game. All of the Suns' scorching two-point pull-up shooting may mean nothing if Boston can get up so many extra long-range shots.
"Phoenix's season high in made threes is just 22, and it has cracked 20 makes just four times. Boston has four games with at least 24 made triples and has hit at least 20 a dozen times. Speculatively, the Suns will have to consistently shoot a much higher percentage overall to keep pace. That's an uphill battle they may not be able to win, especially if the theory holds true that Boston's defense is significantly stouter.
"Durant and/or Booker could go supernova, and the Celtics haven't proven that they can close the deal yet. This will be a high-level, competitive series. But in addition to edges in shot profile and defensive integrity, it just feels like it's time for Tatum and Boston to finally crest the hill.
"Prediction: Celtics in six"
