Suns Given Seventh-Best Odds to Win NBA Finals
The regular season has concluded, and the Phoenix Suns are ready for their time to shine.
The first 82 games of the season have come and gone, supplying Suns fans with a somewhat rocky trip that saw the team manage to grab the No. 4 seed in the West despite dealing with injuries from practically start to finish.
Yet with a healthy Kevin Durant ready to lead the charge, many feel as if Phoenix are favorites to emerge out of the West and reach their second NBA Finals in three years.
FiveThirtyEight's projections would disagree, as the Suns were only given the fourth-best odds to emerge as conference winners.
FiveThirtyEight's NBA playoff projections
About FiveThirtyEight's system:
"These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our NBA player projections, which estimate each player’s future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players. These are combined with up-to-date depth charts — tracking injuries, trades, changes in playing time and other player transactions — to generate talent estimates for each team.
"A team’s full-strength rating assumes all of its key players are in the lineup. A team’s current rating reflects any injuries and rest days in effect at the moment of the team's next game"
The Suns are given a 66% chance to advance past the Los Angeles Clippers and reach the second round of the postseason, boasting higher odds than the Memphis Grizzlies (56%) and Sacramento Kings (19%).
However, Memphis's chances of making it to the conference finals (31%) overtake Phoenix's 25%.
From there, the Suns have just an 11% chance to make the NBA Finals (seventh out of all teams) and a 3% chance of winning the title.
Of course, these are all projections, but interesting to monitor nonetheless. These will change throughout the postseason based off results so it could be worthwhile to track any changes in Phoenix's chances.
