Suns-Mavericks Game 5 Dive: Can Dallas Maintain Hot Three-Point Shooting?
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Perhaps this isn't where the Phoenix Suns want to be, but rather where they deserve to be.
After two road games in Dallas, the Mavericks emerged victorious in both to even the series at 2-2.
Now a best-of-three is on for a team that simply didn't receive a lot of hope to advance past the reigning champs of the west, with at least one more game guaranteed to be played back in Dallas on Thursday.
The Mavericks have found new life after being written off in this series, and now the Suns, still favorites to ultimately push through to the NBA Finals once again, will need to find ways to slow down Dallas' attack.
Limiting turnovers was the theme of focus after Game 3, where Phoenix's backcourt of Chris Paul and Devin Booker simply didn't play careful enough with the ball in their hands.
Game 4 again saw similar disappointing efforts, this time with Paul finding himself in foul trouble early on top of Phoenix still turning the ball over far too often for coach Monty Williams' liking.
“For whatever reason, we haven’t played a complete game here,” Williams said after Game 4 “I thought our first-half defense was about as bad as it’s been all year as far as recognizing the shooters.”
Shooting has carried Dallas through their last two games, and that's exactly what we'll focus on ahead of Game 5.
Can the Mavericks Maintain Their Hot Three-Point Shooting?
That's the question everybody in Phoenix is wondering.
There's no way, right?
During the regular season, Dallas converted 35% of their three-point shots, ranking in the bottom half of the league.
That wasn't out of effort, however. The Mavericks ranked first in three-pointers made and attempted. The volume was there, yet the success rate didn't quite match the numbers.
Through the playoffs, Dallas has found another gear beyond the arc.
The Mavericks lead all postseason teams in three's attempted (41.4), made (15.9) and overall are shooting 38.4% from three-point land.
Game 4 saw the Mavericks take an early advantage thanks to 37 points (64.7% shooting from the floor) scored in the first quarter, the highest-scoring period of any team throughout the series.
By halftime, Dallas had 68 points and completed the highest scoring half of the playoffs thanks to converting 14-of-24 threes (a franchise record).
The Suns were still able to hang around yet ultimately lost 111-101.
Heading back to Phoenix, the Mavericks have shot at least 44.4% from the field in each game this series, while shooting 41% or higher from downtown in all but one contest.
The talents of Luka Doncic have been incredibly hard to stop. Doncic isn't the fastest down the court, nor the smoothest dribbler. However, his steady but effective pace combined with his size allows him to manipulate the floor well, and his numbers reflect that.
Typically, the Suns defense has done well around the perimeter. The regular season saw Phoenix rank fifth in the NBA in opposing three-point field goal percentage (34%) compared to this postseason's 38% allowed from beyond the arc, currently tied for the third-worst in the playoffs.
A few factors have gone against the Suns defensively: Help defense and closing out on shooters.
Often times when Doncic drove to the rack, Phoenix would rotate a backside defensive player for extra support. With his ability to finish around the rim, this isn't a bad defensive call by Williams.
Yet the backside defender leaving their man, often open on the perimeter, isn't met with another rotating body closing in fast enough to challenge the shot.
If you're going to clog the lane and make the dribbler kick the ball out, your remaining defenders need to be: 1) in a position to help, and 2) make the effort to guard the shooter.
Shots are going to fall, that's simply basketball. Yet Phoenix could do with better effort in closing out.
For Williams, it's a double-edged sword. You either leave the on-ball defender with less help in defending a player like Doncic to the hoop, or you force the ball to be passed out and gamble on the Mavericks not being able to consistently hit shots.
Which brings us all the way back to our original question: Can Dallas maintain their hot three-point shooting prowess?
The Mavericks have shot extremely well from deep towards the end of the season after rebounding slow in the first half of the basketball calendar.
| Game Shooting 45.4% or Better 3PT% | 3PT% in Following Game |
|---|---|
Nov. 19 vs Phoenix: 50% | 30% |
Dec. 1 vs New Orleans: 52.9% | 29.4% |
Dec. 13 vs Charlotte: 46.3% | 27.3% |
Jan. 29 vs Indianapolis: 47.1% | 42.1% |
Feb. 8 vs Detroit: 50% | 33.3% |
Feb. 17 vs New Orleans: 47.5% | 43.6% |
Mar. 3 vs Golden State: 45.9% | 38.9% |
Mar. 27 vs Utah: 50% | 45.5% |
You'll notice that while shooting percentages dipped after the hot performance, the Mavericks steadily still shot solid beyond the arc towards the end of the year. Their final three games of the regular season saw them shoot 45.5%, 44.4% and 55.6% respectively.
The postseason has been extremely kind to Dallas, as five of their ten games played has seen them convert 40% or better when shooting three's. One game (39.5% against Utah) barely missed the cut, and the Mavericks have only seen three games where the team shot 33% or worse.
Conventional wisdom says Dallas is unlikely to match their stroke from Game 4, although recent statistical drops after a strong shooting performance is not significant enough for Phoenix to keep their same gameplan from their recent road trip.
