Data-Backed Bets for Suns-Warriors
Game Pick: Suns-Warriors UNDER 241.5 (1 Unit)
The Suns and Warriors will meet in Oakland tonight after Phoenix's short homestay and Golden State's four-game road trip.
Both teams have appeared to turn a corner recently as the Suns are 12-3 in their last 15 games while the Warriors have won five of their last six.
Though Phoenix has had Golden State's number in recent matchups, going 6-1 straight up and against the spread in their last seven clashes, the total is what we're interested in here.
Things we know: The Suns' offense is a machine. They shot 60% from the field against Utah, capping off another 120-plus point performance. That was their sixth time reaching that milestone in the last nine games.
Things we can assume: There should be regression after shooting so well on Thursday, especially considering they shot nearly 50% from three-point land.
In the last nine contests following the Suns shooting 44% or better from three, the average drop-off is -13.4% and has regressed at least 9% in seven of those games.
Now, enter Draymond Green. Since his return from suspension on January 15th, the Warriors defense has picked it up. They've held opponents under a 114-point offensive rating in eight of the 10 games. An average of 112.3 defensive rating would rank fifth-best in the league.
After some back-and-forth line movement, the Suns sit as 2-point favorites for tonight's contest. Since 2020, the Warriors are 13-5 ATS and 13-6-1 SU at home when the line is between -2 and +2. When they are the underdog, they are 7-0 ATS.
As underdogs, Golden State has covered their last 11 games against teams that they previously lost to.
With a tight line and two teams playing well, it's safe to assume this should be a tight contest with effort on both sides of the ball, especially late in the game.
Other Notes/Trends:
- Phoenix is 6-25 ATS after shooting 44% or higher from three in the previous game since 2021 (2-8 ATS, 7-3 to the under this season)
DraftKings (-105), ESPNBET (-105), FanDuel (-110)
Player Prop: Devin Booker OVER 23.5 Points + Klay Thompson UNDER 3.5 Assists (.75 Unit)
Devin Booker gets the pleasure of playing against Klay Thompson today. This is a matchup Booker has made the most of in recent matchups and one he could have circled.
We've seen instances where Booker takes games personally as recently as Tuesday against Milwaukee where he had 32 points. In his last six games against Thompson, Booker has averaged 30.3 points and cleared 23.5 in all six.
The Warriors are the league leaders in keeping teams outside the restricted area. However, Booker doesn't do his damage from there. Only 16% of his attempts come from within three feet while the league average is 30%.
Golden State allows and Booker takes attempts in the paint above league average, as well. Booker's preferred spots and what the Warriors allow fit really well, which partially explains his recent success.
There are no head-to-head matchups in the NBA anymore, but assuming Draymond Green starts the game on Kevin Durant, we could see either Thompson or Jonathan Kuminga taking turns attempting to stop Booker.
Speaking of Klay Thompson, assisting isn't his game. Since Green returned to the lineup, Thompson is only averaging 3.1 potential assists per game.
The result has been an average of 2.1 actual assists and his going under 3.5 in eight of the nine games. His only four-assist game came in 47 minutes played and double overtime.
For the season, Thompson is under in 21 of 22 games with Green in the lineup. In his 46 games played, he is under in 37 of those contests (80%).
ESPNBET (-118), DraftKings (Booker 25+ Points and Thompson under 2.5 Assists, +146)
