Round Table: OKC Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers NBA Finals Predictions

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers are battling it out in the 2025 NBA Finals for the right to stake its claim to its first NBA Championship in team history.

The Thunder were last on this stage in 2012, the Pacers in 2000. Oklahoma City navigated through the rough and tumble Western Conference proving to be the 68-win juggernaut they were in the regular season. The Pacers have been giant killers pulling off upsets in each round to punch its tickets to the Finals.

Both teams play fast, have depth and similar star makeups. Now, something has to give, as there can only be one team in the winner circle after this best-of-7 set.

With Game 1 tipping off on Thursday, June 5 at 7:30 PM CT inside the Paycom Center. The staff at Thunder on SI predicted how this Finals will shake out.

Rylan Stiles, Lead Writer

Prediction: Thunder in 6

The Oklahoma City Thunder are simply the better team. They play the Pacers style of play, only better and have the Pacers depth with better pieces. Indiana will be a firey foe, their red-hot shooting from beyond the arc will go along way in getting them two wins and keeping every game competitive but the sample size is too great in favor of the Thunder who also roster the best player in the series, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

X Factor: Rick Carlisle

This is the sixth Finals in some capacity for the Pacers bench boss, he is known for maximizing his roster and scheming up unique ways to flip disadvantages like trying to defend Gilgeous-Alexander. Can the veteran head coach find a way to slow down the head of the snake in this series?

Ivan White, Staff Writer

Prediction: Thunder in 5

Indiana has been one of the hottest teams in the league, but it has yet to face a defense like Oklahoma City. Assuming the Thunder can continue to get big contributions from their stars, they should be able to take care of the Pacers in a relatively short series.

X Factor: 3-point shooting

Throughout the playoffs, the Pacers have been the best outside shooting team, making 40.1% of their shots. While the Thunder turned a corner in the conference finals from beyond the arc, matching Indiana’s production will be tough. With the Thunder’s willingness to give up corner threes, the outside shot could be the Pacers’ path to pulling an upset.

Chase Gemes, Staff Writer

Prediction: Thunder in 5

Oklahoma City made rather quick work of the Minnesota Timberwolves on the WCF, which makes its Finals chances even stronger. The Thunder has gotten through the bloodbath of a Western Conference, and as good as the Pacers are, it has too many advantages going for it.
It’ll be a battle between two electric offenses, but Oklahoma City’s defense can do a number at limiting Indiana’s production. Haliburton is great, but Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player in the series by a considerable margin. Both teams have elite depth, though the Thunder gets the edge there too. Indiana could extend this series further, but Oklahoma City wants to get it done at home. Not in a Game 7, either.

X-factor: Gilgeous-Alexander

It’s the obvious pick, but this is Gilgeous-Alexander’s chance to place his name next to the all-time greats. He had an elite WCF and proved his worth — there’s just still another level he can go.
If Gilgeous-Alexander is at his best, it’s hard to see the Pacers taking him down.

Ethan Baca, Staff Writer

Prediction: Thunder in 7

The Thunder won 18 more regular-season games and finished with a +10.6 higher net rating than the Pacers – the largest gap between playoff opponents since the 2019-20 Milwaukee Bucks breezed through the Orlando Magic in five first-round games. Other favorable factors for Oklahoma City include the uber-consistent MVP and home-court advantage. Needless to say, this battle appears lopsided on paper. However, Indiana has earned phenomenal results since the new year by getting healthy and lowering its turnover numbers significantly. In the playoffs, the Pacers have shot 40.1% on 33.1 3-pointers per game while averaging just 12.7 turnovers. This offensive production should even give the Thunder’s imposing defense lots of trouble. Oklahoma City has not lost consecutive games since April 4 and 6. Indiana has not lost consecutive teams since March 6, 8 and 10. This should be a highly competitive, back-and-forth series, with the No. 1 overall seed pulling away at the end.

X-Factor: Cason Wallace

Excluding low leverage, the Thunder has played 304 minutes with AND without Wallace in the playoffs – and has been 19.4 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court. Stripping ball-handlers, intercepting passing lanes, contesting (and blocking) jumpers, catch-and-shooting against different coverages, reliable transition play … Wallace’s abilities can swing quarters and/or games.The sophomore played 25.8 minutes per game in the Western Conference Finals, a huge jump from the prior two rounds. I expect this to continue, as Oklahoma City’s single-big and small-ball lineups match up more favorably against Indiana than the double-big unit unless it can dominate the offensive glass.

Nate Aker, Staff Writer

Prediction: Thunder in 5

Oklahoma City is primed. A gauntletbeginning againsta strong Memphis Grizzlies team who yielded an impressive product on the floor in one-and-a-half games without Ja Morant was swept in four. Then taking down a Nikola Jokic-led Denver Nuggets squad who is as hard as any team to put down in the NBA in a seven-game series, followed by a five-game routing of a complete Minnesota Timberwolves team and quieting Anthony Edwards—the Pacers will have a rough time in this series as evidenced by what the Thunder has accomplished in this postseason, and it’ll end in five. And that might be generous.

X-Factor: OKC’s calling card

The Thunder have to throttle the Pacers through what the team was best at throughout the entire season—forcing turnovers, rattling offenses and generating points in transition. If Oklahoma City can fluster Tyrese Haliburton, limit its own turnovers and force Indiana into a half-court offensive game, this Finals may not even need a 30-point average from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

With the NBA Finals about set to tip-off, Stay tuned to Thunder on SI for complete coverage of the NBA Finals.