Using Four Factors to Explain 2024-25 OKC Thunder Dominance, Part Two: Turnovers

The 2024-25 Oklahoma City Thunder achieved dominant results by holding opponents to poor shooting from the field. It allowed a 51.3% effective field goal percentage (No. 1 in NBA) during the regular season and a 50.7% effective field goal percentage (No. 2 in NBA) during the playoffs, ensuring a high floor with or without scoring efficiently on offense.

While two-way shooting is the most important statistic among Dean Oliver's four factors, two-way turnovers often make or break games. After all, they end offensive and defensive possessions without a field goal or free throw attempt(s).

Turnover percentage is an estimate of turnovers per 100 possessions. The formula: turnovers / (field goals attempted + (0.44 * free throws attempted) + turnovers).

Team Performance, 2024-25 Regular Season

Prioritizing elite ball security and defensive playmaking has propelled Oklahoma City from a basement dweller to the ultimate heavyweight. The 40-win, 2022-23 Thunder registered a +3.6% turnover percentage differential (No. 2 in NBA). The 57-win, 2023-24 Thunder posted a +3.0% turnover percentage differential (No. 1 in NBA).

Last season, Oklahoma City became the greatest turnover team in NBA history.

Comparing team turnover percentage and opponent turnover percentage during the 2024-25 NBA regular season. | NBA.com

The regular-season Thunder recorded an 11.6% turnover percentage (No. 1 in NBA), the lowest mark since the 2020-21 Portland Trail Blazers (11.2%) and San Antonio Spurs (11.3%). The Thunder also forced a 16.9% turnover percentage (No. 1 in NBA), tying the 2022-23 Toronto Raptors for the highest mark since the 2019-20 Chicago Bulls (18.1%).

Oklahoma City's +5.3% turnover percentage differential blew away every other team. The Boston Celtics, runner-ups in offensive turnover percentage, created a 3.8% lower percentage on defense. The Orlando Magic, runner-ups in defensive turnover percentage, committed a 3.1% higher percentage on offense.

The Magic (+2.1% differential), the Indiana Pacers (+1.8% differential) and the Golden State Warriors (1.7% differential) joined the Thunder as playoff teams with top-five differentials. Only the Philadelphia 76ers (+2.4% differential) ended up without any postseason play.

The five worst differentials — Utah Jazz (-5.4%), Charlotte Hornets (-2.2%), Washington Wizards (-2.1%), Bulls (-2.0%) and Phoenix Suns (-1.9%) — were all lottery teams. The three worst differentials represented the three worst records, with Utah's turnover woes outweighing its bad, although not catastrophic, effective field goal percentage differential.

Team Performance, 2025 Playoffs

Oklahoma City's 2-point and 3-point percentages took major hits when it transitioned to playoff action, but its two-way turnovers remained the greatest team strength.

Comparing team turnover percentage and opponent turnover percentage during the 2025 NBA playoffs. | NBA.com

The postseason Thunder finished with a 12.3% turnover percentage (No. 1 in NBA) and a 17.9% opponent turnover percentage (No. 1 in NBA). The latter was a 1.0% jump from the regular season and the highest playoff mark since the 2014-15 Milwaukee Bucks (18.1%), which played just six games.

The Cleveland Cavaliers (+3.2% differential) and LA Clippers (+2.0% differential) each increased their regular-season differentials by 1.9%, and the Magic and Warriors were still firmly positive.

Six of the seven worst differentials — Memphis Grizzlies (-8.4%), Miami Heat (-6.4%), Los Angeles Lakers (-3.7%), Detroit Pistons (-3.7%), Bucks (-2.1%) and Houston Rockets (-1.2%) — were first-round exits.

The 2024-25 Thunder forced 435 more regular-season turnovers than it committed, and forced 131 more playoff turnovers than it committed. Both are now NBA records.

OKC Player Performance, 2024-25 Regular Season

Last regular season, the league-average turnover percentage was 14.4% and the league-average team steal percentage was 8.3%. Oklahoma City tallied just 11.6 turnovers per 100 possessions while racking up 10.2 steals per 100 possessions.

Thirteen of 14 returning Thunder players notched an above-average turnover percentage — with Isaiah Hartenstein (15.3%) being the only exception. Every returner recorded at least a 1.0% individual steal percentage, six returners nabbed at least two steals per 100 possessions, and two returners landed among the NBA's elite.

Comparing current Oklahoma City Thunder players' turnover and steal percentages during the 2024-25 NBA regular season. Dot size correlates positively with total steals. | Basketball Reference

MVP winner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 8.6% turnover percentage and 2.4% individual steal percentage were each slight decreases from his 2023-24 season, but both represented his uncommon impact for a No. 1 option. After all, lead ball-handlers attract more defensive attention and bear greater responsibility than role players. Gilgeous-Alexander recorded a team-high 131 steals.

First-time All-Star Jalen Williams has blossomed into a reliable No. 2 option. His shooting efficiency declined, but his turnover percentage (10.3%) remained excellent. Williams earned the first All-Defensive selection of his career by taking on every assignment imaginable, increasing his steal percentage by 0.7% and increasing his block percentage by 0.2%.

Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams were catalysts for Oklahoma City's low turnover percentage, while Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace served as cheat codes on the other end.

Caruso, who has been the NBA's best perimeter defender over the last half-decade, destroyed his previous career-high with a 4.0% steal percentage last season — though he missed 28 games. Wallace registered a 3.1% steal percentage, improving his rookie output by 0.9%. Luguentz Dort, the hydra's third head, thrives as an on-ball defensive disruptor rather than an off-ball playmaker.

OKC Player Performance, 2025 Playoffs

Throughout the 2025 playoffs, the league-average turnover percentage was 14.6% and the league-average team steal percentage was 8.2%. The Thunder posted 12.2 turnovers and 10.6 steals per 100 possessions.

Hartenstein remained an exception, and Jaylin Williams (23.1% turnover percentage) was an extreme outlier, but every other returning player who logged at least 100 playoff minutes showcased above-average turnover percentages.

Comparing current Oklahoma City Thunder players' turnover and steal percentages (min. 100 minutes) during the 2025 NBA playoffs. Dot size correlates positively with total steals. | Basketball Reference

Seven returners tallied at least a 2.0% steal percentage, while Caruso (3.9%, No. 1 in NBA) and Wallace (3.0%) remained Oklahoma City's cream of the crop.

What Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams and Chet Holmgren lacked in shooting efficiency, they made up for with consistent ball security. All three recorded single-digit turnover percentages during the postseason, which helped the Thunder maintain a higher margin for error than all four opponents.

Oklahoma City was a historic turnover team in the regular season and accumulated an even higher turnover percentage differential in the playoffs. This statistical factor singlehandedly elevates the Thunder from a good, high-potential team to a juggernaut. The current core has maximized the turnover economy for years and would need to keep that up for any and all success moving forward.

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