ESPN Projects Thunder in the Play-In Tournament

A season ago, Oklahoma City was one of the NBA’s biggest surprises. The team exceeded expectations and odds by over 15 games and played its way into the play-in tournament. In addition, the Thunder knocked off the Pelicans on the road in its first-round matchup, before falling to the Timberwolves the very next game. The team certainly put the league on notice, and expectations are much higher than 23 wins this time around.

With the 2023-24 season right around the corner, projections for the Thunder seem all over the place. There’s a handful of different opinions from each party floating around — from top-six playoff contenders to play-in truthers, and even nonbelievers who think Oklahoma City misses out on the postseason. The Western Conference got better as a whole, and the Thunder will have to play good basketball to find a spot near the playoffs — that’s for certain.

ESPN’s latest projections slotted the Thunder in at the No. 7 seed in the conference with a 45-37 record. Quite honestly, it’s a fair assessment of the roster and the situation Oklahoma City is in. The Thunder won’t be sneaking up on any teams this time around, and the conference will be a gauntlet like usual. Behind Oklahoma City is Memphis at No. 8, who netted the No. 2 seed a season ago, Dallas at No. 9 and Minnesota at No. 10. All three teams could outplay their projections if things go right.

For Oklahoma City to win five more games than it did a season ago, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will have to continue his MVP-level of play. Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams played unbelievable basketball down the stretch, and any improvements from either player would go a long way in Oklahoma City’s success as a team. Of course, the addition of Chet Holmgren is one of the most exciting things about the upcoming season after the No. 2 overall pick missed an entire year with a foot injury.

It’s easy to think the Thunder will improve by leaps and bounds with a true center like Holmgren, but it’s important to remember Oklahoma City’s best basketball came from small-ball. It’ll take time for Holmgren to find his footing and fit in with the starting lineup. In addition, the team needs a healthy Gilgeous-Alexander for the entire season. If SGA goes down at any point, the team will be in serious trouble.

There’s a path to the top-six in the playoffs, though, if the Thunder find chemistry early. Every player has shown improvement, and there’s no reason to believe the constant improvement won’t be steady.

It’ll be a big season of growth for the young team, and one with added expectations for the first time in a long time.

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