Thunder NBA Draft Lottery Odds: Can Oklahoma City Get the No. 1 Pick?

The Thunder will be hoping for some luck to go their way on Sunday.

Thunder general manager Sam Presti speaks during an introductory press conference for the 2024 Thunder draft picks at Oklahoma Contemporary Arts Center in Oklahoma City, Saturday, June, 29, 2024. | SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

Oklahoma City is in the midst of another deep playoff run, but it might get another big win over the weekend.

The Thunder are leading their series with the Los Angeles Lakers 1-0 in the second round and preparing for another game on Thursday night. While almost all of the franchise’s attention is on the playoffs, there is at least some attention on what might happen Sunday afternoon.

On Sunday, the NBA will hold its annual draft lottery to determine which team gets to secure the No. 1 pick in the draft. Despite having the best record in the league and being the defending champions, the Thunder still have a shot at the top pick.

While the Thunder have a lottery pick, thanks to the LA Clippers, their hopes of moving up are still quite slim. The Thunder enter Sunday with just a 1.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 7.1% chance of moving into the top four. Currently sitting with the 12th-best odds at the No. 1 pick, the Thunder look poised to receive the No. 12 pick from the Clippers, but there’s still a chance for some movement.

OKC Thunder Lottery Odds

No. 1: 1.5%
No. 2: 1.7%
No. 3: 1.9%
No. 4: 2.1%
No. 12: 86.1%
No. 13: 6.7%
No. 14: 0.1%

For the Thunder to secure a No. 1 pick or simply move up in the draft, they’ll need quite a bit of luck on their side. Of course, with teams like the Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks making significant jumps into the top spot in the past two years, there’s certainly a possibility Oklahoma City could move up.

While Oklahoma City has secured some solid picks from the Clippers in recent years, including the 2022 pick that landed Jalen Williams, it hasn’t had much luck in actually moving up in the lottery. In this era, the Thunder benefited from that 2022 lottery with the No. 2 pick and Chet Holmgren, but they haven’t been able to find any crazy luck since.

Given that the Thunder are already set up for the future as a contender, landing a top four pick in a loaded draft would be massive for the long-term outlook in Oklahoma City. Although the Thunder already have a great young core, adding another legitimate superstar talent could put them in a league of their own.

With the dynasty talks already beginning in Oklahoma City, landing a top pick might lead the Thunder into unprecedented territory in the modern NBA.