Portland's Real Passing Problem Comes From The Bench
The last time Portland ranked better than bottom-six in assist percentage was 2014-15. Trail Blazers fans know that season as one of demarcation. LaMarcus Aldridge, Nic Batum and Wesley Matthews left the following summer, paving the way for Portland to build around Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.
The Blazers' reliance on self-created scoring has only grown bigger since. They were 25th in assist percentage in 2016-17, and have ranked last in that category in three of the last four years–including this season, when Portland's 49.7 percent rate of assisted baskets lags way behind the Boston Celtics' second-to-last ranked number, per NBA.com/stats.
Lillard and McCollum indeed bear some culpability for their team's longstanding inability to create shots for others. It's no secret both can be ball-dominant to a fault, though Lillard's improved playmaking and ever-extending shooting range call into question the veracity of further emphasizing his off-ball work anyway. McCollum's effectiveness will always be most rooted in his imminent threat as a pull-up shooter and isolation scorer.
Still, those realities don't change a long-term roster deficiency that's reached its nadir in 2020-21: The shoot-first, shoot-second, pass-third tendencies of the Blazers' supporting cast.
A whopping 865 three-man combinations in the league have played at least 100 minutes this season. The Blazers' trio of Anfernee Simons, Gary Trent Jr. and Carmelo Anthony owns the lowest assist percentage among that group by far, with a ghastly rate of 38.5, per NBA.com/stats.
Each of the other three-player units making up basketball's bottom-seven in assist percentage? All from Portland.
It goes without saying that tandem absences of McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic are at least somewhat deflating these numbers. Just the presence of McCollum results in defensive adjustments that naturally goad ball movement, and the eight-year veteran's assist rate was an easy career-best when he broke his left foot. Nurkic is Portland's best passer other than Lillard; he's a bigger part of this team's offense as a short-roll decision-maker and elbow playmaking hub than box-score numbers show.
Then there's this: The Blazers' assist percentage with Lillard, McCollum and Nurkic on the floor together is 61.5, just above league average.
Portland's three best players can't always be on the floor even when they're healthy, and at this point it's fair to call Nurkic's overall durability into question. The Blazers' roster construction means they'll likely play a handful of reserves major minutes in every game for the season's remainder.
Mixing Enes Kanter and Rodney Hood–not exactly passers–with the bench triumvirate discussed above is bound to result in too many possessions like below on a nightly basis.
At least Simons and Hood show rare flashes of passing comfort and have room for growth going forward. Anthony and Kanter are who they've always been; the question isn't whether they learn to play more egalitarian basketball, but how long Stotts' leash is when they don't have it going offensively.
Unfortunately, it's Portland's lack of better options on the roster–even sometimes when fully healthy–that may dictate that decision-making process most.