Why Norman Powell Is Right About Defense Looming Extra Large Against Denver
Unlike many of his teammates, Norman Powell has never faced the Denver Nuggets under the playoff microscope. Still, the playoff veteran believes he knows exactly how to beat Nikola Jokic and company in a first-round rematch of the 2019 Western Conference Finals.
Speaking with reporters after practice on Tuesday, Powell indicated that defense will be the key to Portland taking Denver down. Not just because Jokic, the well-deserved MVP frontrunner, captains an offense that finished sixth in the league this season. But due to the Blazers' stops initiating feedback loops that produce good shots on the other side of the floor, too.
"I think the best way to defeat Denver is by playing defense," Powell said. "We can't rely on our outside shooting. Obviously, if they're there we gotta take 'em and shoot 'em with confidence. But we can't rely on trying to beat them offensively. It's gonna be the defensive intensity and focus that we put into the game that'll allow us to be in the flow and be able to get good shots."
Powell wasn't lying about Portland's defense juicing its offense. Any team taking the ball out of its own basket is less likely to score than one pushing the ball up the floor off a live defensive rebound. That's intrinsic to basketball at all levels.
But there's plenty of statistical and anecdotal evidence suggesting the Blazers should try to exploit that reality even further against the Nuggets.
Denver owns a bottom-five transition defense in terms of both points allowed per 100 possessions and points allowed per individual play, according to Cleaning the Glass. If they didn't score at a borderline elite level, it's safe to say the Nuggets' transition frequency would be worse than league average, too.
Another major factor here: Denver is actually a solid halfcourt defense, despite well-founded concerns about Jokic's scheme versatility. The Nuggets surrender 96.6 points per 100 halfcourt possessions, per Cleaning the Glass, 11th in the league. It bears mentioning that ranking is a bit misleading. Average halfcourt defensive rating league-wide is just 96.9, and barely more than a point separates Nos. 11-19.
Jokic still struggles to move laterally and isn't an intimidator at the rim, but he's hardly the defensive sieve doubters make him out to be. At a slim 26-years-old and in his sixth NBA season, Jokic has mitigated pretty much all of the weaknesses that once made him an abject liability – including fouling.
But the Blazers will be relentlessly attacking him in pick-and-roll from the opening tip; there's almost bound to be a game where Jokic deals with foul trouble. All the more reason, then, that Portland should get out in transition as much as possible, where Jokic's worst penchant for fouling lies.
It's a small wrinkle in a series containing two-way multitudes. Given many consider this budding rivalry a first-round tossup, though, it's also one the Blazers can't overlook – just like Powell's broader point about defense fueling offense.