The New England Patriots have won their last three games as underdogs ahead of Week 11's Sunday Night Football matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, but two of those three wins came at home against the Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos. The Colts are consensus three-point favorites and winners of six of their last seven games after an 0-2 start to the season. Both teams lead their respective divisions and are coming off bye weeks.
After New England started the year 2-2 straight-up and 1-3 against the spread, doubters claimed the team was already done and in danger of missing the playoffs. Since then, the Patriots have won a conference-best five straight games following a 43-21 rout of the Broncos as three-point underdogs. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has re-emerged as one of the top passers in the NFL, throwing for 18 touchdown passes during the winning streak after totaling only one in each of the team’s first four games.
In Week 9, Indianapolis bounced back from its first loss since September with a 40-24 win over the New York Giants as a three-point road favorite. That followed a 51-34 setback to the Pittsburgh Steelers as five-point favorite the previous week. Closing NFL betting lines show the Colts have been favored in every game since their season-opening 31-24 loss to the Denver Broncos, in which they still managed to cover as 8.5-point road underdogs. Indianapolis is led by quarterback Andrew Luck, who has thrown for a league-best 3,085 yards and 26 touchdowns.
The home team has won these two teams' last six meetings, with New England hosting the past four. Seven of the previous nine games between the teams have been decided by seven points or less, with five of the past eight decided by four or fewer. However, the two meetings since the Colts drafted Luck have been blowout wins for the Patriots by a combined 56 points, including a 43-22 victory in the divisional playoffs last year as 7.5-point favorites. The past five head-to-head matchups have all gone over the total.