- The Texans offense has been explosive with Deshaun Watson under center, but DFS sites have not caught up. He leads the best value plays for DFS contests in Week 6.
There are standout values at almost every position this week, which means there is quite a bit of flexibility in terms of lineup construction. The most popular technique figures to be a stars and scrubs approach, and that roster build looks to be the ideal floor play in cash games. For large-field tournaments, there are a few situations that can be exploited.
Since many lineups will go with a high/low formula, building rosters with players—especially wide receivers—in the middle pricing tier will likely result in a unique team makeup. Only one game is projected to reach 50 total points this week, but five teams are projected to win by more than a touchdown, and four are projected to score more than 28 points. In those games, the passing offenses figure to dominate ownership, but rostering the running backs with an eye on game script could be the savvy GPP move.
The following will highlight the most notable values from the 4for4 Lineup Generator for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Editor’s note: “Value” doesn’t necessarily mean inexpensive, but rather the best bang for your DFS buck. These players, regardless of price tag, project to give you the most production per dollar this week.
DeAndre Hopkins ($8,000) vs Browns
Hopkins leads the league in targets and has accounted for more than 39% of the Texans targets, giving him the highest target share in the league. His volume gives him a safe floor, but Hopkins also ranks fifth among all pass-catchers in red-zone targets, giving him a high ceiling. Touchdown upside is paramount on FanDuel, even in cash games. Despite all this, Hopkins comes at a $1,200 discount from the highest-priced receiver of the week, making the Texans star 4for4’s top value at his position. When adjusted for strength of schedule, the Browns grade out in the middle of the pack against wide receivers, but they have struggled against elite talent. Antonio Brown, T.Y. Hilton, and A.J. Green have posted games of 23.7, 24.8, and 14.8 FanDuel points, respectively, against Cleveland.
Mark Ingram ($5,900) vs Lions
With Adrian Peterson shipped off to Arizona, Ingram gets a slight boost, but his snap share was already on par with his workload over the last two seasons and he’s accounted for almost two-thirds of the Saints backfield touches on the season. New Orleans is favored by 4.5 at home in a game with the highest projected over/under of the week. Coming off of a bye and facing a hobbled Matthew Stafford, the Saints should win this game handily, and a positive game script tilts backfield touches in Ingram’s favor even more than usual.
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DeShaun Watson ($6,700) vs Browns
Since becoming the starter in Week 2, Watson has scored the second-most DraftKings points among all quarterbacks, including three straight games with 25-plus points. This week, Houston is favored by 10 and projected to score more than 28 points against a Browns defense ranked dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. No team has allowed a higher touchdown rate through the air than Cleveland (8.3% of pass attempts) and Watson’s legs give him a safe floor—he’s averaging more 35 rushing yards per game, or almost a passing touchdown’s worth of DK points.
Jerick McKinnon ($4,100) vs Packers
Latavius Murray got the start for the Vikings in their first game without Dalvin Cook, but McKinnon forced himself into a feature role. Clearly the most explosive Vikings running back, McKinnon saw 67% of his team’s snaps last week and touched the ball 17 times, including six targets. Minnesota is an underdog, but McKinnon’s involvement in the passing game suggests significantly more snaps whenever there is expected negative game flow, especially with Stefon Diggs nursing a groin injury.