- With seven teams favored by at least a touchdown, and five projected to score at least 28 points, there will be a focus on a handful of games in DFS contests. Our expert helps you find the best values.
Week 12 offers eight teams that are favored by at least a touchdown, and five that are projected by Vegas to score at least 28 points. These high point totals combined with some spectacular matchups will likely cause ownership to be heavily concentrated on a few key situations, namely the backfields in the Saints/Rams games, and the pass catchers for the Falcons and the Steelers.
The following will highlight the most notable values from the 4for4 Lineup Generator for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Editor’s note: “Value” doesn’t necessarily mean inexpensive, but rather the best bang for your DFS buck. These players, regardless of price tag, project to give you the most production per dollar this week.
Todd Gurley ($8,500) vs. Saints
Gurley is the top overall value this week in a game with the highest over/under and the Rams favored at home. New Orleans’s weakness on defense is against running backs—the Saints rank in the top 10 in 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to every position except running backs, where they rank 22nd. If this game shoots out as expected, Gurley could find the end zone multiple times, as only one running back has seen more opportunities than he has inside the opponent's 10-yard line.
Mohamed Sanu ($5,800) vs. Buccaneers
The Falcons are projected to score more than 29 points this week, and much of that damage figures to come through the air. No team has allowed more receptions or yards to opposing wide receivers this season than Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have allowed two receivers on the same team to socre at least 10 FanDuel points six times this season, and Sanu may have the best matchup in the slot against cornerback Jordan Hargreaves, assuming that Hargreaves suits up.
Russell Wilson ($7,000) at 49ers
Wilson has arguably been the most important piece of any offense this season, accounting for 23 of the Seahawks 24 offensive touchdowns. Seattle is favored by 6.5 points with a projected point total of more than 25 points. Only seven teams have allowed a higher touchdown rate through the air this season than the 49ers. While San Francisco ranks last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs, most of the damage done on the ground will be done by Wilson, as he is one of two quarterbacks with at least 300 rushing yards this season. That rushing ability gives Wilson one of the safest floors of the week, and San Francisco has been especially vulnerable in the red zone since the injury to starting safety Jaquiski Tartt.
Cooper Kupp ($5,000) vs. Saints
Kupp is projected as a top-three value at his position this week, despite the tough on-paper matchup. Kupp should see an uptick in targets with Robert Woods out, and he already ranks fourth in the league in red-zone targets. Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore is questionable for Sunday and Kupp lines up primarily in the slot, so Kupp has some immunity against the Saints stingy corners, even if Lattimore is active.