NFL Week 1 Point Totals: Unders the Way to Go
Only one game in Week 1 of the NFL season has a total posted higher than 50, and that seems like the right number based on what happened in last year's meeting between the Houston Texans and New England Patriots.
Houston nearly pulled off a massive upset as a 13.5-point road underdog at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com in that contest, but the total easily sailed OVER the closing number of 44 points in a 36-33 New England win.
The Patriots needed a touchdown pass from quarterback Tom Brady to wide receiver Brandin Cooks with 23 seconds remaining to win that game, otherwise then-rookie Deshaun Watson would have notched the biggest victory of his young career. Six weeks later, Watson was on IR with a torn ACL, but he is back for another chance to beat Brady in Foxborough.
The total is sitting at 51 points on the NFL Week 1 odds this time around.
While that may seem like an easy OVER opportunity to cash for bettors on Sunday, there are a few UNDERs that might actually be better wagers in Week 1. For example, the UNDER is 8-3 in the past 11 meetings between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, according to the OddsShark NFL Database, with an average combined score of 41.
The total in this AFC North divisional matchup is sitting between 44.5 points and 45 points at the sportsbooks, and that is assuming Pittsburgh running back Le'Veon Bell does not play because he is still holding out due to a contract dispute. Last year, the Browns lost 21-18 to the Steelers at home in Week 1 in a game that surprisingly saw only one field goal made. It still easily fell UNDER 47 points despite five touchdowns scored.
The Pittsburgh-Cleveland UNDER looks like the best bet on the board along with a similar NFC matchup between divisional foes in New Orleans.
The Saints are also known to be a high-scoring offense, but they will be without suspended running back Mark Ingram for four games while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are missing quarterback Jameis Winston for three. The total on Tampa Bay-New Orleans is a bit high at 49.5 points, with the combined score of the previous 19 meetings a little under 45 points.
Of those 19 games, 14 of them finished UNDER the total, and so will this one on Sunday.
