Week 7 DFS Values and Picks: It All Starts with Todd Gurley
Week 7’s main slate features just 10 games, and pricing is as tight as we’ve seen all season, especially on DraftKings. These two factors will naturally lead to a smaller pool of viable plays than DFS players might be accustomed to, but that means lineups will naturally have less overlap. In other words, everyone won’t be able to lock in a handful of the same studs. Less overlap means lower variance, and it’s weeks like this where the most profitable players have the biggest edge. If you have a proven winning track record, this is a good week to play at the higher end of your bankroll limits. Novice players, on the other hand, might consider dialing back their volume.
The following will highlight the most notable values from the 4for4 Lineup Generator for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Editor’s note: “Value” doesn’t necessarily mean inexpensive, but rather the best bang for your DFS buck. These players, regardless of price tag, project to give you the most production per dollar this week.
FanDuel
Todd Gurley ($10,200) at 49ers
A five-digit price tag might be alarming to some DFS players, but Gurley’s salary still hasn’t risen to a point that matches his production. It might seem obvious to play Gurley at this point but consider the players not on the main slate this week: Melvin Gordon, Saquon Barkley, James Conner, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, Tyreek Hill and Patrick Mahomes. With at least 22 FanDuel points in every game this season, Gurley laps the field this week in terms of expected value. The Rams are 10-point favorites against a San Francisco defense ranked 23rd in 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. With a Vegas projected point total higher 30 and Cooper Kupp—who’s tied with Gurley for the Rams’ lead in red-zone targets—out, Gurley’s already massive workload near the goal line could actually increase this week.
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Jarvis Landry ($6,500) at Buccaneers
In each of Baker Mayfield’s starts, Jarvis Landry has seen at least nine targets. Unfortunately, that volume hasn’t resulted in much production for the player who ranks seventh among all players in targets. As noted in Josh Hermsmeyer’s weekly Air Yards Buy Low column on 4for4, Landry’s targets should be yielding far more fantasy points, and this is the week that positive regression may kick in against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks in the bottom two in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to both quarterbacks and wide receivers. Landry will spend most of his time lined up across from cornerback M.J. Stewart, who’s allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per target among Week 7 starting corners.
DraftKings
Joe Flacco ($5,400) vs. Saints
Only one defense has allowed more schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than the Saints, and Baltimore is an offense that throws at the fourth-highest rate in one-score games. With the volume already there, the expected increase in efficiency for Joe Flacco makes him a top-three projected value at his position on the main slate, according to 4for4’s Value Reports. Projected by oddsmakers for 26 points, this is the Ravens highest implied point total of the season, and they get the added benefit of being the home favorite in what is expected to be a bit of a shootout.
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Peyton Barber ($3,800) vs. Browns
After handling 81% of Tampa Bay’s backfield touches in Week 6, Barber has now accounted for 67% of the Buccaneers running back touches this season, the 10th-highest rate among all backs. As home favorites, the Buccaneers should find themselves in a game script that favors the run, and Cleveland already filters fantasy points to running backs. The Browns rank first in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks but 16th against running backs. Additionally, offenses have averaged a league-high 72.7 plays per game against Cleveland, further bolstering Barber’s touch floor.
