Fantasy Football Stock Watch: Christian Kirk Up, Saquon Barkley Down
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
There’s nothing like a deadline to spur action, correct? That applies to fantasy football as well. Many private leagues have their trade deadline this week or next week, the latter is ESPN’s public league deadline. It’s crucial that you go into negotiations with as much information as possible. Before you do, though, you need to know who to target. Which players are trending in the right and wrong directions? Let’s take a closer look at 10 of them in our Week 11 stock watch.
STOCK UP
WR Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals
It was surprising to see so many people jumping off the Kirk bandwagon after one bad performance against the 49ers in Week 9. The sight of a two-catch, eight-yard box score is enough to make anyone queasy, but Kirk has actually been a consistent target hog when he’s been on the field. The young receiver is averaging nine targets per game and has four games this season with 10 or more. He was missing just one thing, and he got three of them in Week 10.
The end zone proved to be quite elusive to Kirk before exploding for a trio of scores against the Buccaneers. But the lack of touchdowns were the only thing keeping Kirk down. Now, fantasy managers should have a more accurate evaluation of Kirk’s true value. He’s a solid WR3 (low-end WR2 in full-PPR) that has enough reliable weekly volume to finish among the Top 20 WRs on any given week.
If you’re wondering how much he’s bounced around after having one bust week and one boom week, he went from the WR35 to WR43 to WR15 in average fantasy points per game from the end of Week 8 to the end of Week 10 in half-PPR formats (minimum 5 games played this season).
RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Fantasy managers aren’t going to get draft-day value out of Mixon this season, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be an asset down the stretch and in the fantasy playoffs. Week 10 was a crucial one for Mixon because we were going to get the first peek at how head coach Zac Taylor was going to use the star running back with a new, rookie starting QB coming out of a bye.
Taylor went to Mixon early and often, to the tune of 30 carries in a game the Bengals were never in. Mixon totaled 114 yards on the ground and 37 yards through the air on a pair of receptions. The volume was really encouraging, especially after seeing 21 touches against the Rams a week before the bye. A matchup with the Raiders in Week 11 should allow Mixon to extend his 15-plus point scoring streak to three games. The path after that is a mixed bag of mostly middle-of-the-road matchups for fantasy RBs, but he does have a date with the Dolphins in the fantasy championship.
TE Jacob Hollister, Seattle Seahawks
The search for Will Dissly’s replacement is finally over. Hollister may have had a two-touchdown game in Week 9, but his true break out was in prime time on Monday Night Football against the 49ers. Hollister had a whopping 10 targets in Seattle’s overtime victory, catching eight of them for 62 yards and a touchdown.
In the four games since Dissly went down with an injury in Week 6, Hollister has at least six targets in three of them. He’s led all Seahawks tight ends in snaps in three of those four games as well. But the tide turned in Week 9, with head coach Pete Carroll and QB Russell Wilson trusting him to be on the field more and more. He’s the clear starting TE for Seattle and will take back-to-back 16-plus point games into the bye week. He’ll be ranked as a low-end TE1 when the Seahawks next take the field.
WR Darius Slayton, New York Giants
It’s unfortunate that Slayton has to immediately slide into a bye week after his break out performance against the Jets in Week 10, but he’s still a must-add in all formats. He has a pair of multi-touchdown games over the last three weeks and saw a whopping 14 targets in Week 10. Of course he’s not going to put up 10/121/2 every week, but there’s a real chance WR Sterling Shepard misses the rest of the season and TE Evan Engram’s injury lingers beyond the bye. That means Daniel Jones really has only two legit options to throw to: Slayton and Golden Tate.
A quick look down the road reveals a path to success for Slayton during the fantasy playoffs. He’ll face off against the Eagles in Week 14, the Dolphins in Week 15, and the Redskins in Week 16. Do what you can to add him off waivers. If he’s already rostered, check to see if his owner’s hype for him dies down a little bit during or after the bye week.
RB Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns
The fantasy community was understandably all over the place when it came to Hunt this season. There were those who were adamant that he should not be drafted at all. There were those who viewed him as a sleeper they were willing to wait 10 weeks for. There were those who belonged to the latter camp who changed their minds after Hunt had sports hernia surgery. We were all just guessing until we actually saw him on the field.
Hunt had a strong opening performance in Week 10 against the Bills. He had 11 touches, including seven catches, for 74 total yards. In full-PPR formats, he actually outscored teammate Nick Chubb. Chubb did outsnap Hunt 57 to 38, and both backs were used on the field together together on 28 out of a possible 70 snaps. We won’t have to wait long to see if that becomes a trend because the Browns host the Steelers on Thursday Night Football this week. But it appears Hunt will have a significant role on a Browns team with a favorable schedule going forward.
STOCK DOWN
QB Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
Is this the same Jared Goff that played for the Rams last season? The player out there wearing No. 16 for the Rams has regressed considerably in his fourth season. It’s not an overreaction to his absolutely dreadful game against the Steelers, either. Goff has been off all season, even against lesser opponents. But a sequence in Sunday’s game where the Rams went to Blake Bortles on a third-and-short and then Johnny Hekker on a fake fourth-down punt in lieu of Goff was telling.
He has exactly one game with 25 or more fantasy points this season, and can only seem to have “good” games in great matchups. He’s thrown for either zero or one touchdown in more than half of his games this season and has failed to reach double digit fantasy points on three occasions, including this past week. He’s no longer near QB1 territory for the remainder of the season and is droppable in all single-QB formats.
RB Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
You’re not doing anything crazy like dropping Barkley or trading him for pennies on the dollar, but there is plenty of reason for concern. He’s been absolutely stifled on the ground the last three weeks, averaging 2.0 yards per carry on 46 carries. The coup de grâce was his one yard on 13 carries performance against the Jets this past weekend.
It’s a fair assumption to chalk up these struggles to the ankle injury he suffered in September. He returned sooner than most expected, missing only three games. His 19 receptions over the last three games have bailed him out from being an absolute disaster for fantasy managers, but if you have him you have to hope the week off allows him to heal and return to form. The consensus No. 1 overall pick is outside the top 12 RBs in average fantasy points per game this season.
RB David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
Johnson is obviously bothered by his back and ankle injuries, but he’s been so bad lately that he’s no longer an advisable start moving forward. He was benched late in Arizona’s loss to the Buccaneers after a third quarter fumble. He only had six touches and 10 total yards in that game. He was already losing rushing work to Chase Edmonds before Edmonds’ injury and the addition of Kenyan Drake. Now it appears that Drake will get the majority of the workload in this timeshare.
Johnson’s work as a receiver has been his best asset this year. He’s been an ineffective runner for the majority of the season, but was averaging five catches per game through the first six games. He’ll need to be heavily involved in the passing game going forward or he won’t even be considered as a startable player for the fantasy playoffs.
RB Matt Breida, San Francisco 49ers
I’m as guilty as anyone else at trying to make Breida a thing. The 49ers lead the NFL with 36.7 rushing attempts per game and lead the NFL in rushing yards per game from running backs (150.7). Their leading rusher? It’s Breida with 542 yards. Everything looks like he should be a staple in fantasy lineups. But the production simply hasn’t been there.
Brieda and Tevin Coleman put on a show in Week 5 against the Browns. They combined for 226 total yards and 42.1 fantasy points in half-PPR formats. Since then, Breida is the RB42 in fantasy points per game with 6.3. For reference, Coleman is RB13 with 14.2 fantasy points per game. Coleman is the clear lead back for fantasy purposes. On top of that, Brieda has been hampered by an ankle injury for a couple weeks, leaving Monday’s game early with the same injury. He may miss some time going forward.
It’s hard to even say Breida is a boom or bust play. He only has one game this season with more than 13.7 fantasy points (the aforementioned Browns game). Breida should be looked at as a high-end handcuff that can be used in a flex spot in a pinch.
WR Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings
Diggs’ fantasy managers must be pulling their hair out. He may be the most frustrating fantasy player to roster in 2019. There is no predicting when he’ll explode for a 40-point game like he had against the Eagles in Week 6 or the combined 8.5 fantasy points he had over the last two weeks with Adam Thielen on the field for all of seven snaps. We all just have to accept the fact that Diggs is as boom or bust as they come.
Although the styles and situations are different, Diggs needs to be treated like DeSean Jackson was for so many years. He has the potential to be a WR1 on any given week, but his floor is 2-3 fantasy points. He should probably be ranked among the WR2s on a weekly basis even when Thielen is out of the lineup.
More Advice from SI Fantasy:
—Week 11 PPR rankings from Shawn Childs of FullTime Fantasy: QB, RB, WR, TE
—Dr. Roto’s Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em for your tougher lineup decisions
—Frank Taddeo’s streaming options if you’re dealing with injuries or bye weeks
—Tuesday’s Bull Market Fantasy show with Jim Cramer
—Jaime Eisner’s waiver wire pickups: Brian Hill, Darius Slayton and suggestions for deeper leagues
—Frankie Taddeo’s droppables, with some big-name players you shouldn’t feel bad about cutting
—Jaime Eisner’s stock watch can help you win a trade
—Bill Enright’s injury report has the impact on everyone who got hurt in Week 10
