5 Reasons Why Nick Bosa Shouldn't be a Deal-Breaker in a Deshaun Watson Trade
No, I am not advocating for the 49ers to trade Nick Bosa for Deshaun Watson. My personal preference is to trade up to four first-round picks for Watson, as opposed to parting with a player like Bosa in addition to draft picks.
However, Pro Football Focus tossed out this trade scenario, which I feel the 49ers should pull the trigger on if it became a possibility.
Again, I'd instead trade four firsts for Watson than include Bosa in the deal, but let's use our imaginations and say the Texans have their hearts set on Bosa. They don't have interest in four picks. They're interested in two picks and a proven player with Defensive Player of the Year potential.
Here are five reasons why parting with Bosa should not be a deal-breaker in a potential Watson trade:
1) Finding a franchise quarterback should be priority No. 1 for every team.
Going back to 1990, only six quarterbacks have won Super Bowls that are not in the "franchise quarterback" debate.
Those quarterbacks are Nick Foles (2017), Joe Flacco (2012), Brad Johnson (2002), Trent Dilfer (2000), Mark Rypien (1991), and Jeff Hostetler (1990).
Based on who started at quarterback for the winning Super Bowl team over the last 31 years, history shows you have roughly a 20% chance of winning the Super Bowl with a non-franchise quarterback. And that's after you make it that far.
It can certainly be done, it's just significantly harder. Just take last year's Super Bowl, for example. The 49ers' had a double-digit lead with less than 10 minutes remaining. They were so close to winning. But during crunch time, each quarterback showed his true colors. Jimmy Garoppolo crumbled, and Patrick Mahomes rose.
It's not surprising that the team with the better quarterback wins the big game at a significantly higher clip than the team that doesn't.
There are reasons why quarterbacks such as Rex Grossman, Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Delhomme, Kerry Collins and Chris Chandler lost their Super Bowl appearances.
I'd associate Nick Foles with that group, even though he is the lone example of being a supremely lesser talented passer and winning the championship.
Here are the rest of the Super Bowl winners since 1990: Brady (2020), Patrick Mahomes (2019), Brady (2018), Brady (2016), Peyton Manning (2015), Brady (2014), Russell Wilson (2013), Eli Manning (2011), Aaron Rodgers (2010), Drew Brees (2009), Ben Roethlisberger (2008), E. Manning (2007), P. Manning (2006), Roethlisberger (2005), Brady (2004 & 2003), Brady (2001), Kurt Warner (1999), John Elway (1998 & 1997), Brett Favre (1996), Troy Aikman (1995), Steve Young (1994), Aikman (1993 & 1992).
The goal should always be to find a quarterback like the ones above. Someone who can carry your franchise for 10-plus years and always have you in a position to be successful.
Those types of quarterbacks are not easy to find, which is why they cost a lot when you're unable to find one yourself.
That's the position the 49ers find themselves in. Garoppolo could change his narrative, but right now, he's more of the Hasselbeck-Delhomme-type. The type of quarterback who needs everything else to go right to end up in the big game.
Watson is a known commodity. If you trade for him, you have someone who can lead your franchise for the next decade and can consistently have you in a position to be successful.
If that costs Nick Bosa, so be it. We've already experienced how much more valuable a franchise quarterback is than a cornerstone pass rusher.
2) Franchise quarterbacks win championships, not pass rushers.
This saying means that simply franchise quarterbacks will lead you to the promised land far more frequently than an intense pass rush.
However, it is essential to have both. By no means am I saying that pass rushers can't impact the game enough to contribute to a Super Bowl victory. Of course, they can.
But as far as prioritization goes, you take the franchise quarterback whenever you have the chance.
Use Nick Bosa's Super Bowl stats, for example. According to Pro Football Focus, he generated 12 pressures.
He was dominant. But did his team win the Super Bowl? No. The team with the generational talent at quarterback did.
Look at the 2019 Buccaneers. They featured Jason Pierre-Paul, Shaquil Barrett, Ndamukong Suh, Vita Vea, Lavonte David, and Devin White, all on their defense. That team finished 7-9. With that same defense intact, they added Brady and won the Super Bowl.
It is imperative to have a balanced team. But losing Bosa in a trade for Watson does not entirely throw off that balance.
3) The 49ers featured a top-five defense in 2020, without Nick Bosa.
There was not as much firepower on the 49ers' 2020 defense as 2019, but they still possessed a top-five unit. Bosa only played three halves of football this past season. Yet, the 49ers held their opponents to the fourth-fewest passing yards per game and the seventh-least rushing yards per game.
If you plugged in Watson on last year's team, the 49ers would've made it to January. Maybe even February. And that is with taking into consideration all the other injuries.
Quarterback play hurt the team far more in 2020 than not having Bosa.
Bosa is a hell of a player, but his injury concerns are worrisome.
4) Two ACL Tears before the age of 24
Bosa tore his right ACL in high school and his left ACL this past season. That is a lot for both knees to go through. He could recover from this tear just like the last one, but there is no guarantee he'll be the same explosive edge rusher.
Watson also tore both of his ACLs. However, he's gone to three Pro Bowls and has led the Texans to the playoffs twice since his last injury.
After tearing ligaments in both knees, it's far less risky to play quarterback than the defensive line.
Here is a tweet from Dr. Pandya, Chief of UCSF Pediatric Orthopedics and Director of Pediatric Sports Medicine.
Note that Dr. Pandya coins Bosa a linebacker; he clarifies his reasoning below.
Since there is no guarantee Bosa will get back to being the same player he was his rookie year, the team would be wise not to let him serve as a deal-breaker in a potential Watson trade.
5) Money.
Joey Bosa, Nick Bosa's brother, signed a six-year contract worth nearly $150M ($25M average annual value).
Nick Bosa's contract is good through 2023, assuming the 49ers exercise his fifth-year option. He's not due for a contract extension for a few more years, but once his time comes, he'll likely cost as much if not more than Joey.
That is a lot of money to give out for a player who doesn't play the quarterback position. If defensive linemen were as important or worth as much as quarterbacks, then Aaron Donald would play in the Super Bowl every year. Unfortunately, that's not the case.
Opposed to giving a single defensive lineman $25M or more, it may be wiser to spread that money around to multiple lesser-sought-after linemen.
Take what the world champion Buccaneers did, for example. They don't have a single pass rusher with an AAV of more than $16M.
- Barrett: $15.8
- Pierre-Paul: $12.5M
- Suh: $8M
- Vea: $3.7M
If Bosa had the durability of Donald, he'd be worth the big contract. Plus, he has a few years to prove he can stay healthy. But if that is not the case, the 49ers may be wise to spread the wealth around to a combination of solid pass rushers.
I'd rather have Watson, no first-round picks for two years, and sign a few pass rushers than have to pay Bosa and continue to play the guessing game at quarterback for who knows how long.
I'm not advocating to trade Nick Bosa. But when you think about it, there are a ton of reasons as to why it makes sense as it pertains to Watson.
Follow me on Twitter: @NinerNick_22.
