Betting Angles for 49ers-Packers
Point Spread: 49ers +6/6.5
Total (Over/Under): 49.5/50
Line Movement
Prior to Week 8, these two teams were considered equal in the eyes of odds makers. Both teams had disappointing Week 7 division losses, but the optics on the 49ers was worse as they looked flat and lost starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and All Pro tight end George Kittle. All the drama in San Francisco moved the Packers to -6 favorites at some placed and -6.5 at others.
Remember, always shop around for the best number. If you like the 49ers chances, then getting +6.5 at the Westgate makes the most sense. If you are leaning toward the Packers, places like William Hill and Bet MGM are still at -6. I also think there's a chance this game goes to 7 or 7.5, which would present value on the underdogs.
The total has remained steady, fluctuated between 49.5-51, with most shops currently landing on 50.
Trends
The Niners embarrassed the Packers in both meetings at Levi’s last year with a combined score of 74-28. The revenge angle for the Packers is legitimate as Aaron Rodgers would love to light up the franchise that passed on him in the NFL Draft, ended his 2012-2013 season and made him look silly twice in 2019. The 49ers are only 1-3 ATS at home this season and are vulnerable with injuries to key positions on both sides of the ball. Green Bay is 5-2 ATS this season.
Under Value
The Packers RB situation is sketchy with Aaron Jones highly questionable and both A.J. Dillon and Jamaal Williams on the COVID-19 list. With a mediocre running game, Robert Saleh won't need to stack the box and can keep his safeties back to guard against bombs from Rodgers. The 49ers have offensive concerns of their own with their three best weapons (Mostert, Kittle, and Deebo Samuel) out along with their two centers, wide receiver Kendrick Bourne (COVID-19 list), and - oh yeah - their starting quarterback.
The 49ers lost linebacker Kwon Alexander in a trade, but his departure hurts more on paper than in reality. The total opened at 51 and dropped only one point with the removal of Garoppolo, Kittle, and two Packers' running backs. The line should have dropped more with this news, but it didn't, presenting value to bettors. Aaron Jones' rumored return could be offsetting some of the 49ers offensive injury news, but even if he plays he won't be 100%.
Week 8 Best Bet:
Under 50
Prop Bets
With COVID-19 threatening kickoff, prop bet markets have pulled their lineups, so there will be no prop bet recommendations this week unless the game gets moved.
Last Week's Best Bets
Last week's teaser recommendation (49ers +9 and Bills/Patriots U49) lost by one point on the 2-point conversion reversal in the 4th quarter. Even though the Bills/Patriots under was correct, it's still a losing bet. The 49ers +3.5 recommendation was also a loser, which sunk the prop bet recommendations of overtime, and it being a close game. The NO (-270) on defensive/special teams touchdown prop bet was a winning suggestion.
