Is John Lynch's Questionable Early-Round Drafting the Reason He Has Yet to Receive an Extension?
Thursday, February 9th, 2017.
This date represents Kyle Shanahan’s introductory press conference, which was held after he signed a six-year contract to be the head coach of the 49ers. The six-year deal matched the length of the contract signed by John Lynch the same offseason.
From February 9th, 2017 onward, Shanahan and Lynch have always been a package deal. The two have done a tremendous job representing and turning around the franchise at an electric pace.
Early this offseason, Shanahan signed a three-year contract extension. His partner in crime, Lynch, did not.
What gives?
Taking a look at Lynch’s body of work over the last three years, there is only one area that stands out that could justify him not receiving an extension. That area is drafting in the early rounds.
Before we examine Lynch’s early round draft history, I’d like to acknowledge that Lynch not receiving an extension may be an over-assessed situation. However, there is no denying it is odd the general manager was left hanging, while his counterpart got a raise and extension.
I’d also like to acknowledge that Lynch is extremely strong in other areas such as trading for players, trading down draft boards, drafting in later rounds and signing key free agents.
While it is important that GMs are strong in these areas, it is even more important that GMs are better at nailing early round draft picks. Teams are built through the draft, especially in the early rounds. More specifically, between Rounds 1 and 4.
Nailing your draft picks between Rounds 1 and 4 helps build your team and replenish your roster. It is vital that you capitalize on your early round picks, especially when you’re a team like the 49ers who are going to lose key players due to salary demands.
The team has already experienced that this offseason, with the departures of DeForest Buckner and Emmanuel Sanders. The trend is only going to continue, as players such as George Kittle, Trent Williams, Kyle Juszczyk, Richard Sherman, K’Waun Williams and Jaquiski Tartt are scheduled to hit the free agent market.
Down the road, the team must be prepared to replace starters with impact rookies. This means Lynch must nail his picks. But can he? While we can’t evaluate the 2020 draft class, let's take a look at the previous classes we can evaluate.
2017 - five players selected in the first four rounds
- Round 1, Pick 3: Solomon Thomas - Defensive Lineman - Stanford
- Round 1, Pick 31: Reuben Foster - Linebacker - Alabama
- Round 3, Pick 66: Ahkello Witherspoon - Cornerback - Colorado
- Round 3, Pick 104: CJ Beathard - Quarterback - Iowa
- Round 4, Pick 121: Joe Williams - Running Back - Utah
Analysis: What a cringe-worthy first five picks. One word comes to mind with seeing these names and it's, “Ouch”.
Granted, this was Lynch’s first draft, so you can cut him some slack. But, someone needs to be held accountable to some extent for this atrocious display of drafting. Jed York could easily point to Lynch’s first five draft picks and say “this is why we’re not comfortable extending you, yet”.
Hindsight is always 20/20, but the team could have gone in any other direction than Solomon Thomas. Christian McCaffrey, Jamal Adams, Marshon Lattimore, and I’m not even going to mention the quarterbacks.
There is a reason why Foster fell to the 31st pick. The talent with Foster was there, but the intelligence and team-first attitude was not. Lynch gambled and lost.
Witherspoon is the best player within the first four rounds of this draft, which is unfortunate. His up-and-down play during his first three seasons has been frustrating to watch, but the capability is clearly there. Hopefully Witherspoon can turn it around, and help savage his draft selection.
Beathard and Williams were selected largely because of Shanahan. However, part of being GM is being able to balance out what you want and what the head coach wants. This is by no means an easy task, but it's part of the job.
No one had CJ Beathard going in the third round, and many teams didn’t even have Williams on their draft boards. Lynch gave in to Shanahan, especially with Williams.
To sum up this draft, Lynch went zero for five in terms of drafting impact players within the first four rounds. Not good.
On the bright side, throughout the year he did trade for Laken Tomlinson and that guy Garoppolo. But again, hitting on picks early in the drafts trumps all.
2018 - five players selected in the first four rounds
- Round 1, Pick 9: Mike McGlinchey - Offensive Tackle - Notre Dame
- Round 2, Pick 44: Dante Pettis - Wide Receiver - Washington
- Round 3, Pick 70: Fred Warner - Linebacker - BYU
- Round 3, Pick 95: Tarvarius Moore - Defensive Back - Southern Mississippi
- Round 4, Pick 128: Kentavious Street - Defensive Lineman - North Carolina State
Analysis: The 49ers definitely drafted some ballers this time around, particularly Fred Warner. When looking at the players selected in the first four rounds between 2017 and 2018, without a doubt Warner was the best pick. Tip your hat to Lynch. But what about the other picks?
Mike McGlinchey has been a very good draft selection. He is a perfect fit for the Shanahan outside zone ground game, but is an average pass blocker. Lets not forget, when the 49ers drafted McGlinchey, they already had two very good tackles - Joe Staley and Trent Brown.
Brown was the opposite of McGlinchey, as he was a great pass blocker but not as nimble and athletic as a run blocker. Brown was traded to the Patriots, in exchange for the pick that the team used on Tarvarius Moore.
The following season, Brown signed a massive contract with the Raiders. From a financial aspect, having McGlinchey on his rookie deal is a tremendous benefit opposed to having to have paid Brown.
Financials aside, was McGlinchey the right selection? We’ve seen other tackles such as Justin Skule and Dan Brunskill play the tackle spots just as effectively. Which leads to the question, is McGlinchey a really good tackle, or is he a beneficiary of the Shanahan offense?
After all, the team passed on two First-Team All Pro defensive backs, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Derwin James. With the rumors of Jamal Adams coming to the 49ers, the team had the chance to draft their own All Pro safeties.
As of now, McGlinchey was a good pick, but if he can’t eventually play left tackle then the selection becomes a tad problematic. Drafting a right tackle in the top ten is high, as the vast majority of tackles selected in that range play left tackle.
It's too soon to write off Dante Pettis, but at this point, he is not looking like a good selection. Not too mention, the 49ers traded up to draft him. Very similarly to Witherspoon, Pettis has a chance to turn things around.
Tarvarius Moore has been played around with at both the outside corner and free safety spots. Having not seen the field much in his first two seasons, it is tough to gauge where Moore stands.
It’ll be interesting to see what unfolds at the safety position next year, with Jaquiski Tartt becoming a free agent. Jimmie Ward would likely play near the line of scrimmage, with Moore playing the single-high spot.
But that's down the road, and up until this point Moore has not provided much of an impact. He did intercept his first career pass in the Super Bowl though, so hopefully there is more of that to come in the future.
Street has been a very underwhelming selection, and what is even more discouraging about the pick is Lynch stole a page from Trent Baalke’s playbook. Drafting a player coming off an ACL injury.
Lynch hit on two impact players in the first five rounds of this draft, in McGlinchey and Warner. That number may go up with a strong season from Pettis, and a strong season next year from Moore.
Right now, within his first two drafts, Lynch drafted two impact players in the first four rounds, out of ten opportunities. He continues to make up for it with superb late-round drafting, trading, and free agent signing. But sooner rather than later the poor early-round drafting will catch up.
2019 - four players selected in the first four rounds
- Round 1, Pick 2: Nick Bosa - Defensive Lineman - Ohio State
- Round 2, Pick 36: Deebo Samuel - Wide Receiver - South Carolina
- Round 3, Pick 67: Jalen Hurd - Wide Receiver - Baylor
- Round 4, Pick 110: Mitch Wishnowsky - Punter - Utah
Analysis: It took only their rookie seasons for Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel to prove that they’re cornerstones of the franchise. Lynch deserves credit for selecting Samuel, and doing what he was supposed to in drafting Bosa.
Looking more into the Bosa selection, in my opinion, it was a no-brainer type pick. If Kyler Murray decided to play for the Oakland A’s like he initially said he was going to, instead of entering the NFL draft, it is likely Bosa would’ve been the first overall pick. This could’ve very easily altered the rise of the 49ers, and ultimately how Lynch is viewed as a GM.
Murray deciding to play football was the best thing to happen last offseason, as Bosa fell right into the team’s lap. Lynch did the right thing by accepting Murray and Kilff Kingsbury’s gift to the franchise.
The 2019 draft was without a doubt the best draft for Lynch. The draft can grow only stronger if Jalen Hurd can stay healthy and put together a solid season where he contributes heavily towards a Super Bowl run.
When the 49ers drafted Wishnowsky, he was already 27-years old. I don’t like the selection of a 27-year old punter in the fourth round, but Wishnowsky is far from Lynch’s worst draft selection.
The 2019 class has been phenomenal, but not quite enough to mask Lynch going two for ten between rounds one and four of the 2017 and 2018 draft.
The 2020 draft class will say a lot about Lynch
- Round 1, Pick 14: Javon Kinlaw - Defensive Lineman - South Carolina
- Round 1, Pick 25: Brandon Aiyuk - Wide Receiver - Arizona State
Lynch had to draft for immediate replacements this year. Something he is going to have to continue to do moving forward, if he wants to continue being the general manager of the organization.
How Kinlaw and Aiyuk pan out will dictate the confidence upper management has in Lynch, in terms of his ability to sustain a Super Bowl caliber team.
Lynch has proved he can turn around a roster. He robbed Bill Belichick when he traded for Jimmy Garoppolo and stole Trent Williams from the Redskins. He found George Kittle and Dre Greenlaw in the 5th round.
There is no questioning Lynch has a lot of the qualities of an elite NFL GM. But there is one thing left to prove, that he can continue the rise and establish the return of the San Francisco 49ers through early round drafting.
Once that is no longer in question, expect Lynch to receive an extension. Or better yet, a promotion.
Follow me on Twitter: @NinerNick_22
