Line: Green Bay at San Francisco (-3.5/3), O/U: 49
The “look ahead line” prior to Week 2 had San Francisco laying 3 points in their home opener and the line currently stands at -3.5 at most places, with Circa in Las Vegas showing -3. The -3.5 spread was ruthless to favorite bettors in Week 2, as those favorites were 1-4 ATS, with Buffalo being the lone team to cover the hook.
The 49ers are coming off two road wins against inferior opponents and the Packers will be traveling to the west coast on short rest after what had to be an emotionally relieving win against the division rival Lions. In that game, the Packers could not generate a pass rush without blitzing the Lions underrated offensive line. The loss of Za’Darius Smith was apparent. The Packers will once again be without Smith and the spotlight is on cornerback Kevin King who was drafted No. 33 in 2017, but has struggled. Those struggles continued after the Packers moved him in the slot vs. Detroit. Look for Jimmy Garoppolo to test King early in this one as his confidence has to be shaken at this point.
The 49ers are having no trouble generating a pass rush as Nick Bosa is coming off a two-sack performance. With Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari out, Bosa will face Elgton Jenkins who has a 75.2 overall PFF grade and has allowed one sack and one penalty in 122 offensive snaps. Jenkins is good enough to be a starting left tackle on several teams.
The 49ers running back room is in turmoil as the status of rookies Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon are both up in the air. If both players don’t suit up, the 49ers will be relying on their sixth option at the position with Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert, and JaMycal Hasty all hurt.
Both teams are 1-1 ATS so far this season.
-Favorites in this series are 6-1-1 ATS the last eight meetings
-Packers are 12-3 ATS vs. resilient defenses like SF that allow more than 17.15 yards per point
-The 49ers are 1-6 ATS - vs. opponents who play the Steelers the following week
-The 49ers are 27-12 to the over the last 10 years vs. lesser rushing teams averaging under 3.9 yards per carry
49ers -3, definitely shop around and make sure you get the -3 and not the -3.5 as 15% of NFL games are decided by exactly 3 points. I’m not putting my bet in until later in the week when we’re more certain whether Mitchell or Sermon will play.