Where Will the 49ers Trade Jimmy Garoppolo?
After 4.5 seasons, the Jimmy Garoppolo Era has come to an end. With both the 49ers organization and Garoppolo amicably acknowledging that Garoppolo's reign as the 49ers starting quarterback was over in the season-ending press conference several days ago, it's time to prognosticate about where Garoppolo might head next.
One thing is clear from the last press conference: although Garoppolo no longer has a no-trade clause active in his contract, the 49ers are committed to sending him to a "winner."
Although Garoppolo wants to go to a "winner," success and failure wax and wane in the NFL; half of the teams in the playoff this year did not make the playoffs last year (Patriots, Bengals, Raiders, Cowboys, 49ers, Cardinals, Eagles), displacing seven teams who failed to make it to the playoffs this year after punching their ticket in 2020 (Ravens, Browns, Colts, Saints, Seahawks, Washington Football Team, Bears). So where will Garoppolo begin the next chapter of his career? I'll break down four options and address the pros and cons of each potential trade partner.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Why the Bucs make sense
With Tom Brady ending his unparalleled 22-year career as the ageless wonder, the Bucs are suddenly at a crossroads. One year removed from drunkenly celebrating their Super Bowl championship on a boat parade in Tampa Bay, the Bucs could be looking at a long hangover and a return to mediocrity or worse.
However, the rest of the NFC South looks to be in shambles. The Carolina Panthers are underperforming under the rudderless management of Matt Rhule. The Falcons, despite adding Kyle Pitts, can't seem to stop anyone, and Calvin Ridley's days in Atlanta are numbered. And the Saints just lost Sean Payton, are in salary cap hell and could look to unload some big contracts and big-name players in a rebuild.
If the Bucs can sign a couple of their long list of free agents, Garoppolo might be an attractive option to help cement an NFC South title with the aid of a solid defense.
Why the Bucs don't make sense
First, Bruce Arians loves to push the ball downfield, and that's not Garoppolo's forte. Second, that long list of free agents is LONG. Twenty-six free agents, with 23 of them being unrestricted including Chris Godwin, Jason Pierre-Paul, Ryan Jensen, Leonard Fournette, Rob Gronkowski, Carlton Davis, Jordan Whitehead and Alex Cappa. The draft can help, but if the Bucs were to make a trade with the 49ers, it could possibly require the 27th pick, and that price may be too rich for a team with only $11.1 million in cap space left. There are even rumblings that with Brady’s departure, Bruce Arians might call it a career as well. The Bucs either need to make a splash or go into rebuild, and either way, those aren’t the makings of a viable trade suitor for Garoppolo.
Washington Commanders
Why the Commanders could be a fit
The Washington Football Team finally has a new name for their football team! Would Garoppolo be a good commander in chief for the Commanders? Washington was a trendy pick before the season to win the NFC East, touting a stout defense, a good offensive line and rising stars in offensive weapons Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson. However, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Chase Young got injured early, and Washington faltered behind the tepid play of Tyler Heinicke and a moribund secondary. Although not the athlete Heinicke is, Garoppolo would clearly be an upgrade and would fit well with a Scott Turner offense. Turner has worked his magic with Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford, which would bode well for a player the caliber of Garoppolo.
Garoppolo has hit his ceiling, but if he can play more consistently at his ceiling in an offense that allows him to get rid of the ball quickly and trust his playmakers to do the rest, this could be a good pairing. With nearly $44 million in cap space, the Commanders have the money to absorb Garoppolo’s contract, but would undoubtedly extend him and bring that number down. They would also have the ability to address the secondary in the first round of the draft and free agency. In this scenario, Washington would trade the No. 42 pick and a future second rounder to secure Garoppolo.
Why the Commanders don’t necessarily make sense
The NFC East isn’t full of world-beaters, but they do have the Dallas Cowboys in division. And while it may seem trendy to bash Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys’ ineptitude in the playoffs over the past 27 years, they still are the most talented team in the division. Would Garoppolo be enough to get the Commanders over the hump?
And then there’s the rift between Kyle Shanahan and Commanders owner Dan Snyder. Although they were able to consummate a trade for Trent Williams, would Snyder let the 49ers fleece them again? I doubt it. This draft class for quarterbacks isn’t great, but if there’s a guy they end up falling in love with, chances are they can draft him at No. 11 or trade up a few spots with minimal capital to give up in return.
Ultimately, I think the Commanders do one of two things: they either build around a rookie and spend lavishly in free agency while taking advantage of a cost-controlled rookie quarterback contract, or they make a splash by trading for a veteran quarterback such as Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson. Either way, while Garoppolo could make sense for them, I don’t think the Commanders christen their “new era” with a retread quarterback that Kyle Shanahan didn’t want.
Denver Broncos
Why the Broncos could make sense
Like Washington, the Broncos will have a significant amount of salary cap space for 2022, coming in tenth in the NFL with just over $48 million. Vic Fangio couldn’t get the job done, so Nathaniel Hackett comes in wielding new energy, a media-friendly sense of humor and connections to the Shanahan-tree offense, most recently serving as the offensive coordinator in Green Bay under Shanahan protege Matt LaFleur. If the Broncos can get healthy along the offensive line, Garoppolo would walk into a skill position room including Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant and Tim Patrick (if they retain him in free agency).
The Broncos seem to be loaded on defense, and would (like the Commanders) have plenty of cap space to absorb Garoppolo’s contract after an extension while addressing holes in free agency and the draft. Garoppolo has lived out this formula with the 49ers since 2017, and has shown that while he will never carry a team, he is more than capable of being serviceable enough to facilitate an offense that can score enough points to complement excellent defense and go deep in the playoffs.
Why the Broncos don’t make sense
The offensive line was a huge question mark, and banking on it getting healthy is a big ask. And without a dominant offensive line, Garoppolo struggles. And if the Commanders fear the Cowboys, the Broncos are in a division that has two All-Pro level quarterbacks in Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes and one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league in Derek Carr.
Even with a strong defense, in order to compete over the long haul and short term in the AFC West, the Broncos won’t go with a rookie and will need to go with a veteran. But that veteran probably won’t be Garoppolo. I think the Broncos make the splash that many people have projected and pair their new head coach with his former player in future Hall of Famer, Aaron Rodgers. In that division, they have to go big or go home, and I think the Broncos go big.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Why the 49ers should trade Jimmy Garoppolo to Pittsburgh
And this brings me to the team I think would be the best fit for Garoppolo AND the team that ultimately will trade for him: the Pittsburgh Steelers. The only issue I see for Pittsburgh is that their offensive line needs work, and that's probably an understatement. But I trust the Steelers front office to work some magic in that regard and address it in the first round of the 2022 Draft. Everything else about this pairing makes sense.
Like Denver, Garoppolo would walk into a skill position room full of playmakers such as JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and Najee Harris. While not as consistently good as Denver's defense, the Steelers have T.J. Watt, who may be the best defensive player in the NFL, plus safety Minkah Fitzpatrick on the back end. Ben Roethlisberger struggled in the last year of his career, but this is an offense that Garoppolo would absolutely flourish in; he wouldn't be expected to throw vertically, and would have three star-level players who are adept at working near the line of scrimmage and over the middle, which is Garoppolo's bread and butter.
Could the Steelers draft a rookie and build around him? Sure. But I don't see that with a team that's built to win right now. The Steelers will have $48 million in cap space, plenty to absorb Garoppolo's contract, which will be more palatable given an inevitable restructure on an extension. The Bengals look like long-term players in the AFC North with Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase, and the Steelers aren't going to compete in the AFC with the uncertainty of a rookie in a quarterback class that is very suspect. The Ravens and Browns look to rebound, so the AFC North could once again be the tightest division in all of football. Making a move for Garoppolo won't be the splash the Steelers might need, but it will allow them to allocate more of their cap space toward complementary players and address depth on their roster.
I believe the Steelers will desire Garoppolo, and give up a 2022 second round pick and a 2023 second or conditional third, which could transition to a second rounder given playing time in 2022. This would be phenomenal compensation for a quarterback that has gone to to two NFC Championship games in his tenure with the 49ers but has also made Kyle Shanahan throw his share of clipboards.
Regardless, the Trey Lance Era begins, and the pump and dump plan for Garoppolo seems to have worked better than many could have expected.
