Why Mac Jones is the 49ers' Wisest Option In the Draft
Offseason opinions are fluid. As of right now, I firmly believe that the 49ers are better served to move down in the draft and select Alabama quarterback Mac Jones.
In a draft class that features a ton of "sexy" prospects at the position, I'm sure Jones is an underwhelming name.
He's not Trevor Lawrence, who's been placed on a pedestal the past several years.
He's not Justin Fields, who may be the most physically gifted quarterback in the class. Fields had a tremendous outing against Clemson in the College Football Playoffs, in which he dazzled with his arm talent and displayed a type of toughness you want in a franchise quarterback.
He's not Zach Wilson, who has already won over the hearts of 49ers' fans after a video game-like season at BYU, where he threw for nearly 3,700 yards and had an 11:1 touchdown to interception ratio.
He's not Trey Lance, who is the most intriguing quarterback prospect in this class. Lance played in one game in 2020, and he struggled. However, in 2019, he led the North Dakota Bison to an FCS National Championship, where he threw 28 touchdowns to zero interceptions. He also rushed for 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns that season.
Excitement. That is what these quarterbacks represent. Looking around the National Football League, the most exciting quarterbacks are Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen.
Why? Because they can extend plays with their legs. That doesn't necessarily mean they frequently look to run the ball. It means when a play breaks down, or the pocket collapses, they're not a sitting duck.
Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Mullens, and C.J. Beathard are sitting ducks. Everyone is tired of watching the sitting duck. Especially considering the right side of the 49ers' offensive line does nothing to help the cause.
Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, and Lance have a Mahomes-Jackson-Allen-like play-style and are not sitting ducks,
Jones is not what you'd consider a play-extender. But he's not a sitting duck either. He can work the pocket.
It is easy to yawn at the thought of a traditional drop-back passer when the position is on the verge of being taken over by play-extending passers. But hear me out when I say Jones is the 49ers' wisest and possibly best option.
Jones is the safest first-round quarterback for the 49ers
At this point, Lawrence is the consensus first-overall pick. That certainly could change, but right now, it's Lawrence. Justin Fields will likely go second overall. Zach Wilson will go somewhere in the top-ten, maybe even top-five. Trey Lance has the best chance of being on the board when the 49ers pick 12th, but he possesses far more risk than Jones. However, he offers far more reward.
If the 49ers trade up for Fields and Wilson, which I also support, they would have to part with several picks.
Below is the draft pick value chart to explain how much the 49ers would need to give up to land Fields or Wilson.
- 2nd Overall (Jets): 2,600
- 3rd Overall (Dolphins): 2,200
- 4th Overall (Falcons): 1,800
- 5th Overall (Bengals): 1,700
- 6th Overall (Eagles): 1,600
- 7th Overall (Lions): 1,500
- 8th Overall (Panthers): 1,400
- 9th Overall (Broncos): 1,350
- 10th Overall (Cowboys): 1,300
- 11th Overall (Giants): 1,250
49ers draft Picks 2021:
- 1st Round - 12th Overall: 1,200
- 2nd Round - 43rd Overall: 470
- 3rd Round - TBD (Compensatory for Robert Saleh)
- 4th Round - 107th Overall: 80
- 5th Round -138th Overall: 37
- 5th Round - 156th Overall: 27. 8
- 5th Round - TBD (Projected compensatory for Emmanuel Sanders)
- 6th Round - 169th Overall: 22.6
- 7th Round - 192nd Overall: 13.4
- 7th Round - 202nd Overall: 9.4
The 49ers would likely need to part with as many picks necessary to match or exceed the point value of the draft slot they're trading for.
Ex: Trading their 1st (1,200) and 2nd (470) round picks for the Eagles' 6th overall pick (1,600).
Moving up for Fields or Wilson is costly. The more expensive a move you make, the more risk and pressure there is on that player to succeed. If the player you trade the farm to select doesn't pan out, it can set back your franchise. On the other side of that coin, it could also make you a perennial contender. Just ask the Chiefs how they're feeling after trading two 1st-round picks and a 3rd-round pick to move up from 27th overall to 10th to select Patrick Mahomes.
I like the idea of trading back for Jones because you'll gain draft capital. Remember, the 49ers' have 27 unrestricted free agents and 11 exclusive-restricted or traditional-restricted free agents (source: Over the Cap).
For a team that is potentially looking at the most roster turnover since Kyle Shanahan took over as head coach, gaining draft picks is far more ideal than parting with them.
Build a complete bully.
The 49ers were the most complete team in the NFL in 2019. But that didn't result in a Super Bowl trophy, as the play-extending quarterback with the big arm came out on top.
I get the infatuation with that type of quarterback. They can mask a lot of flaws. Just look at what Russell Wilson has been doing in Seattle for almost the last decade. But at the end of the day, those teams still have flaws. And there are reasons why flaw-masking quarterbacks like Wilson and Mahomes come around once every five years or so. If that.
Reflecting on the 49ers' Super Bowl loss, they didn't solely lose because they didn't have the better quarterback. Garoppolo did enough for the 49ers to win the game for about three and a half quarters.
2019 laid down a blueprint. Possess a spectacular run game and great defense. Easier said than done, but if you have both of those, your quarterback just has to be able to run Shanahan's offense at a high enough level.
The 49ers have a better chance at getting back to being a complete bully by trading down and gaining assets to help replace the looming vacant roster spots once held by key contributors.
Think about it, trading down for Jones will likely land you a combination of Day 2 and 3 picks. That means the possibility of addressing the offensive line, the cornerback position, and pass-rushing depth all within the first few rounds, on top of getting your quarterback.
Shanahan does not NEED an elite quarterback.
You hear this cliche all the time; a great quarterback makes his receivers better. Well, this term applies to Shanahan with his quarterback.
Shanahan is one of, if not the greatest, play-designer in the league right now. He often schemes up wide-open receivers. All he needs is a quarterback who can hit them in stride—Enter Jones, who has displayed that ability time and time again.
Why the 49ers should trade or cut Garoppolo and start Jones as a rookie.
Below is an argument you could make for any rookie quarterback in this draft class.
The team will save more than $24 million if Garoppolo is traded or cut. If they choose to trade or cut him, it should be done before free agency. A lot of money is to be saved by moving on from Garoppolo for a rookie.
If the 49ers commit to the plan of drafting a rookie and starting him Week 1, they're best off retaining or acquiring as much talent around him as possible.
Assuming the cap is set at $176 million, the 49ers will have $22.6 million in cap space (per Over the Cap). That number could increase to $46.6 million by moving on from Garoppolo.
With that added cap space, the 49ers will have the spending flexibility to replicate that complete team in 2019.
Jones is the quarterback that the team should draft to start because he is the cheapest pro-ready quarterback. When I say cheapest, I'm talking in relation to present and future draft capital. Again, you likely gain assets.
Lance is another option, but considering he's only 20 years old and has played in only one game in the last year doesn't provide a lot of confidence that he is a year-one starter.
How I generally feel about the 49ers quarterback position
The 49ers are in a position where they can almost do no wrong regarding who is the starting quarterback in 2021.
Garoppolo is under contract, and if the team wants to keep him, fine. There are a lot worse quarterback situations out there than the 49ers. After all, he facilitated Shanahan's offense well enough to contribute to a Super Bowl run. The only non-negotiable is that the team must upgrade the backup spot in case Garoppolo gets hurt again. That needs to be done in the draft or free agency. Mullens and Beathard aren't going to cut it. We all learned that.
If the team trades up for Fields or Wilson, great. They're both fantastic prospects, which I'm sure would thrive in Shanahan's system. But buyer beware. If they don't end up being the player you thought you were getting, the team will take a few steps back. Because of the quarterback play and because of the assets you lost while trading up.
If the team stays put and drafts Lance, exciting! He'll likely need time to absorb what it takes to be an NFL quarterback, but his ceiling is really, really high.
If the team trades down and selects Jones, awesome. That means the 49ers drafted a pro-ready quarterback while gaining assets.
The way I see it, the 49ers could only lose in a few ways.
1) They go into the 2021 season with Garoppolo and don't upgrade at the backup spot.
2) They trade up for Fields or Wilson, and they end up flopping at the next level.
You can live with drafting a quarterback like Lance at 12 or moving down and drafting Jones, even if they bust. It's a lot tougher to recover from drafting a bust you gave up a lot for.
Ask yourself this question:
How much better are the 49ers with Fields or Wilson and no Day 1 or Day 2 picks in the 2021 or 2022 draft compared to a 49ers team with Jones and additional draft picks both years?
Build a bully. Don't be a team that hopes its potential franchise quarterback can be a flaw-masker.
