Unlocking the 49ers Season: A Change In How They Win

To make the Final Four and get to the Super Bowl will require a break from the past and an evolution in how they win.

Carving the upcoming season into 4-5 game quarters, patterns emerge on what the 49ers need to accomplish to win each set of games. The immediate goal is the No. 1 seed, that will likely be determined by who wins the Philadelphia game. To make the Final Four and get to the Super Bowl will require a break from the past and an evolution in how they win.

1ST QUARTER: WEEKS 1-4
(@ Pittsburgh, @ LA Rams, NY Giants Thursday night, Arizona)

How do the 49ers overcome recent history to open the year 4-0?
The Niners have stumbled out of the gate in the past two years and turnovers have been a key reason why. In the first three losses last year, the Niners lost turnovers 8-1. The year before, 5-1.

The offense reached a new level of clean execution when Christian McCaffrey arrived. Turnovers should drop this year as a result. If the offense struggles to move the ball in the initial games, the switch to Jake Moody at kicker will take center stage. He'll likely face pressure moments to win tight early games.

New Defensive Coordinator Steve Wilks will have to turn the D up to 11 by dialing up blitzes and man-press coverage. Wilks wants each level of the defense to complement each other to create more pressure. Wilks defenses have historically been top five in the NFL in blitz rate. That shouldn’t be needed with a front four this talented, but it helps to have the option. Wilks also likes to disguise blitzes, showing eight in the box and sending five.

Whether Wilks can shape the defense into a cohesive ball-hawking unit by Week 1 is the question. Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin always has his team ready on opening day. Getting to Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett is how to get the ball, Pickett threw seven interceptions in his final four games last year.

The Rams and Cardinals are so depleted the Niners should win those games on talent disparity. Facing the Giants on Thursday night will be helped by a home opener in prime time, where George Kittle and Nick Bosa have shined in the past.

2nd QUARTER: WEEKS 5-8
(Dallas Sun night, @ Cleveland, @Minnesota Monday night, Cincinnati)

How do the Niners better protect the quarterback this year, and what counters will they have against a Robber defense?

The Colton McKivitz gamble at right tackle is put to the test in this quarter. Dallas put constant pressure on the Niners in the playoffs. Cleveland dealt for ZaDarius Smith to team with Myles Garrett to give the Browns one of the league’s best edge tandems. Increasing the risk, the Niners don’t have a proven backup at tackle, an injury to either starter could derail the season.

McKivitz and Spencer Burford on the right side of the line face their do or do not test in Weeks 5 and 6. If they should fail, plenty of options are available at guard, but not tackle. This year’s draft picks at tight end could also bring needed help to chip edges. The trade deadline hits in Week 7 as the “in case of emergency break glass option” at tackle, but that could disrupt the Niners' cap blueprint.

Dallas will have this game circled on their calendar as a revenge game after the Niners have taken them out of the playoffs the last two years. In the divisional round last year, Dallas Defensive Coordinator Dan Quinn sent relentless pressure and flooded the field to stop Brock Purdy and it worked, holding the Niners to 19 points. What counters will Kyle Shanahan have ready?

The way to beat Dallas and Cleveland is to run on them. Shanahan’s test will be whether he will leverage his depth at running back and utilize a rotation rather than running McCaffrey into the ground and then switching late to a closer. In a year with six long road trips, injury risk is increased. Will Shanahan finally adjust to mitigate against injuries? He has yet to do so.

With two long road trips and then Cincinnati at home on a short week, the injury risk coming out of this quarter is high. Wilks blitzing will be in play against the Bengals to get to Joe Burrow.

3rd QUARTER: WEEKS 9-14
(Bye, @ Jacksonvillle, Tampa Bay, @ Seattle Thanksgiving night, @ Philadelphia, Seattle)

The bye week timing will help, coming just before the toughest stretch of the year. The primary adjustment in the 3rd quarter will be on defense as the Niners face big receivers. Will Darrell Luter Jr. replace Deommodore Lenoir in the starting lineup to introduce more size in the secondary? Will Ji’Ayir Brown see more time as blitzing grows in importance? The rookies and second-year players will be key. The Niners will lean on depth for new solutions and as potential injury replacements.

Matching up with the big receivers is Job 1 of this quarter, closely followed by containing quarterbacks running for critical first-down conversions. Can Wilks solve this problem given the Wide-9 pass rush scheme? DeMeco Ryans chose not to employ a spy on quarterbacks, it’ll be interesting to see what Wilks decides to go with to solve the Achilles heel of the Niner defense.

On offense, can the Niners keep Purdy upright? The rookie tight ends are better at inline run blocking than pass protection. Short drops and a consistent running game are needed.

When the schedules were released, Philly promoted the Niners rematch with a picture of Haason Reddick. They know what time it is. Can the Niners beat either Philly line? When the opposing talent is elite, systems lose out to matchups. Wilks has acknowledged the need to change up to reflect matchups. If Shanahan does, he may find a way to get past Philly. If not, the Eagles get the No. 1 seed.

4th QUARTER: WEEKS 15-18
(@ Arizona, Baltimore Christmas night, @ Washington, LA Rams)

If Wilks solved the running quarterback problem for the Wide-9 in the 3rd Quarter, then this final quarter will end well. The challenge is there with Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson, the Niners will need a way to stop quarterback runs for first downs out of passing situations. It’s their path to more wins to close the year and in the playoffs.

This schedule with long trips and shorter recovery time than their opponents will increase the 49ers' injury risk this year. If the Niners roll with “it’s just bad luck” and “that’s football” then it’s another ringless year. The Niners will not win a championship in my view until they learn from past mistakes and evolve. Whether they win a ring or not, applied learning paves the way for future success.