San Francisco Treat for Bears
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The old NFL phrase "any given Sunday" will likely be one of the Bears' best friends for this rebuilding season.
Early betting lines put them down as underdogs 13 times this season.
It doesn't mean a team can't rise up and defy odds as an underdog like the Cincinnati Bengals did last year. They kept proving the skeptics wrong, whether in reality or at the betting window. They were 14-7 against the spread, second best and trailing only Dallas (13-5) at covering the point spread.
Winning in the NFL as an underdog is not easy, though.
In fact, last year just covering the spread as an underdog wasn't easy. The five worst teams in the league ATS were the Bears (6-11), Panthers (5-12), Jaguars (5-12), Giants (6-11) and Jets (6-11). That's about as motley a crew as the NFL can produce.
With the Bears viewed as heavy underdogs this year due mainly to their lack of receivers and an offensive line, there are still ways they can pull off upsets--and not simply betting upsets. Major potential opportunities for upset victories exist at three points on their schedule, and here are those where they are most likely to occur.
There are a few other games where the Bears are underdogs now but a strong chance exists it could swing the other way, particularly later in the season. So calling those upset chances are not realistic, and one of those is the next-to-last game at Detroit where the Bears are 2 1/2-point underdogs against a team no better off than they are heading into the season.
1. The Opener
The Sept. 11 game against San Francisco could be exactly the thing coach Matt Eberflus and quarterback Justin Fields need in order to shut down all the negativism.
The 49ers are on the road as 6 1/2-point favorites. In the NFL, that big of a spread alone is a warning. But the 49ers are on the road with a new quarterback in Trey Lance, and he barely scratched the surface last year in terms of playing time.
Lance got on the field for only 178 offensive plays and had only two starts. His experience essentially is only three games as he played only a snap or two in his other three appearances. The 49ers lost the first two, a relief effort when Jimmy Garoppolo was injured against Seattle and a start against the Cardinals on the road. He completed 24 of 47 in those two games for 349 yards and two TDs with an interception. The 49ers lost both of those games.
Later he had a start against Houston at home and they beat one of the league's worst teams 23-7. They could have started Nate Sudfeld and won that game easily.
If you're going to knock off a rookie quarterback who likes to run around, a good way to do it is by creating takeaways with plenty of zone coverage and some disguise. The Bears did this regularly with Michael Vick in their old cover-2 defense under Lovie Smith. They got a young passer to take risks on the run and punished him.
Expect the Bears to do this. Then it will come down to how much the line can keep Fields protected in order to hit Darnell Mooney and open up enough room for David Montgomery to run just a bit against what figures to be a top 10 NFL defense. This is the biggest problem they'll face, but limiting mistakes will go a long way when Lance is the one making them.
Another reason this could be a Bears upset chance is simply the element of surprise associated with a new regime. They used this well in Green Bay in 2018 when they covered the spread and nearly pulled off a staggering upset in a game they squandered 24-23. Both their offense and defense enjoyed big nights at Lambeau Field in that one but finishing the upset would have meant beating their owner, Aaron Rodgers, and they couldn't protect a 20-point lead. They beat him later that year to clinch the division.
Yet another reason is Matt Eberflus' Colts defense just dominated the 49ers last year in San Francisco, taking it away twice and holding them to 295 total yards in a 30-18 Indianapolis victory Expect he'll have the old game films out for that one.
This game should look quite a bit different than last year's wild 33-22 win by the 49ers at Soldier Field, whichever way you look at it.
If the 49ers eventually surprise everyone, keep Garoppolo and start him, all bets are off. He's usually pretty deadly playing in his home town.
2. The Reunion Game
This is the game Nov. 20 at Atlanta, where it almost seems half the roster and coaching staff is comprised of former Bears brought in with the aid of Ryan Pace. The former Bears GM is front-office staff help for the Falcons now.
The Falcons are a solid 3 1/2-point favorite for this game. They have Eddie Goldman, Damien Williams, Damiere Byrd, Germain Ifedi, Elijah Wilkinson, Teez Tabor, Cordarrelle Patterson and Nick Kwiatkoski on the roster, eight former Bears players. Six were Bears last year. Coach Arthur Smith also has former Bears coaches Dave Ragone, Charles London, Michael Pitre, Ted Monachino and Jon Hoke on their staff. So how good could they really be?
Atlanta's quarterback is likely to be Marcus Mariota, who has started six NFL games since 2018 and all of them were in 2019. The Titans' fortunes took off as soon as they went away from Mariota at quarterback. Mariota has never played a full season and the backup could be playing by then, rookie third-round pick Desmond Ridder.
3. Big Apple
The Bears have two games in New Jersey as underdogs and have won three straight over the Giants, but it's the Jets they're more likely to beat.
They face second-year QB Zach Wilson and he had a worse rookie year than Fields.
The Jets haven't beaten the Bears since the 1900s.
The Bears have won five straight over the Jets, and even were able to beat New York in 2002 when they won only four games and played home games at Champaign and also when the team totally fell apart under Marc Trestman's nose in 2014.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
