Cashing in on 49ers at Bears

The Bear-49ers game might be an intriguing matchup for some football fans because of the Justin Fields-Trey Lance quarterback matchup.

For fantasy football owners it's largely a game to avoid. Gamblers will like this one much more than fantasy owners.

The problem with the Fields and Lance matchup is it's two quarterbacks who failed to reach 59% completions last year as rookies in less than a season of play.

Most fantasy owners would have access to quarterbacks who can complete 62% or better.

The low completion percentage partly explains their poor overall passing yardage from last year, Fields at 155.8 yards per game and Lance 100.5 yards a game.

Projections are for both Fields and Lance to perform better in their second seasons but as a fantasy owner you need to see it first when you've probably got other options at quarterback.

The execution of these offenses is in question for the opener in general.

For these reason, neither player is recommended as a play in Week 1.

The opposition is a good reason to stay away from Fields, regardless, as San Francisco's defense is among the league's best.

The only salvation for a fantasy owner saddled with playing either of these question mark quarterbacks in Week 1 is they might pick up rushing points and touchdowns on the ground.

Better to play it safe.

Here's who else to play or avoid in Week 1 in this game, as well as the best bets for this game.

1. 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell

The second-year 49ers back who was a sixth-round pick out of Louisiana produced his career high of 137 yards when he went against the Bears defense last year. This is a different defensive front scheme-wise and mostly personnel-wise but one of the vulnerabilities of the Tampa-2 scheme was always stopping teams committed to running the ball. By they way, before Mitchell had his career-high game against the Bears, he had a career-high the week before of 107 yards and a TD against who else? Matt Eberflus' Colts defense. A definite big play here. They'll lean heavily on their big tackles, Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey, and give it to Mitchell. Coincidentally, Mithcell had big games against a few other four-man fronts with similar approaches last year, vs. Lovie Smith's Texans (119 yards) and the Vikings (133 yards).

2. 49ers WR Deebo Samuel

The Bears are zoning heavily in pass coverage. They're the worst kind of scheme to have against Samuel, who will be sent to catch passes short of the zone coverage and the sticks, and will then use his powerful 6-foot, 215-pound frame to beat up on DBs with yards after the catch.

3. Bears WR Byron Pingle

He hasn't shown anything because of injuries but the Bears are going to use him plenty under the coverage to try and get yards after catch. He could get more uncontested catches than Darnell Mooney, who will draw the bulk of the San Francisco coverage attention.

At Your Own Risk

4. Bears RB David Montgomery

The fourth-year back is certainly capable of a big game but the 49ers defensive front isn't so generous and appears even more daunting now with third-year defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw healthy again after a season-ending injury early in 2021. It wasn't Montgomery who hurt the 49ers on the ground last year but Khalil Herbert (72 yards) and Fields. Still, with a new blocking scheme and with Montgomery's ability to break tackles, anything is possible.

5. 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk

The 49ers have touted Aiyuk all offseason but it's his speed that sets him apart and this isn't as key of an asset going against cover-2 as it is with receivers facing man-to-man schemes.

6. Bears TE Cole Kmet

With the coverage shifted to Mooney, Kmet should be open more. 49ers safeties are not exactly elite but with San Francisco the problem is they could just have him covered with a linebacker and get away with it. Fred Warner would be up to any cover assignment involving a tight end. This one is a flip of the coin.

Others to Avoid

7. 49ers TE George Kittle

Obviously. He's unlikely to play with a groin injury.

8. Bears WR Equanimeous St. Brown

Sorry. He never did it with the Packers and hasn't looked like a big-time contributor in practice or preseason, other than to help teammates learn an offense that he knows very well from being in Green Bay.

Defense

In a regular league using team defenses, the 49ers would be a very solid play. They always are, but facing a team in its first game with a new coordinator, a young quarterback and with rain forecasted, a low scoring total allowed seems probable.

Also if you're in a league using individual defensive players then leave it stuck on Roquan Smith this year. This weak side role is made for him. He could really devastate some offenses with his burst and power. In the old Bears scheme he wasn't around the ball enough early on plays to produce the kind of takeaway totals he needed to get cash in a contract extension similar to what Shaquille Leonard received, but those takeaways could be coming now.

Bears Best Bets

The Line: 49ers by 7. (Over/under 40 1/2)

BearDigest Pick: 49ers 23, Bears 10

Trends can be overemphasized in openers but in this case all the needles are pointing to the 49ers and the under.

The Niners have become real road warriors, covering on 20 of their last 28 road games. They also have been coming in under the total regularly, having gone 7-1 on the under in their last eight.

This is a new Bears regime but they still must show they can turn around the negative trends. They're facing one Sunday as they have failed to cover the spread in five of the last six home games.

Props to consider

The over on Elijah Mitchell's rushing total. It's 61 1/2 yards looks like a lock. He could have that much by halftime.

The under on 200.5 yards passing by Trey Lance and the over on 196.5 yards passing by Justin Fields look inviting, as well. The Bears will be behind and the soft yardage will be there for Fields. As for Lance, he might not even throw it enough times to get to 200.5 yards passing.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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