Answering Biggest Bears Fantasy Questions

There have been years when the Bears lacked any players of value to fantasy football owners.

Times have changed with Justin Fields' rise in value, as most offseason assessments rate him the sixth- or seventh-best quarterback for fantasy football purposes.

A rank so high obviously is not based on his arm alone, and running QBs always hold more value unless they struggle completely as passers.

The other top Bears fantasy choice last year is in Detroit now, but just because David Montgomery is gone doesn't mean the running back position is a fantasy void in Chicago. It's not every team that has the player who led all running backs in yards per carry, like Khalil Herbert did.

The potential for a Bears receiver rating among the highest at his position exists, at least to the level Brandon Marshall was for the Bears and certainly as high or higher than Allen Robinson was in his best Bears season. After all, the receiver's rank depends greatly on the person getting him the ball and Robinson always had this limitation, even when Fields played as a rookie.

There are five basic questions for fantasy owners to ask before taking a Bears player in a fantasy draft.

1. Will Justin Fields passing more reduce his fantasy value?

The Bears didn't get DJ Moore so they could watch Fields be beaten up running the ball 160 times again.

"I by no means will make that guy robotic," offensive coordinator Luke Getsy said. "I don't believe in doing that with any player. But there's a way to refine it all and improve our decision-making and trusting our timing and rhythm and we'll take it from there."

Refine, rhythm and timing are all code words for passing the ball more instead of tucking it and running.

The Bears offense will become much better overall if Fields is passing it more. However, it's not difficult to see how his fantasy value with yards and scores on rushes would improve when his passing game picks up.

"You know, run it when we need," coach Matt Eberflus said about the idea of Fields running it. "When we're down in the red zone third down we might need it at that point during those critical situations of the game. So that's what he's going to do."

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It might look more like a trade-off or slight reduction in overall fantasy value if he throws more and runs less, but if Fields is running in the red zone he might be scoring more and then emerges with similar points or more.

And if he also emerges as a high-volume passer in the mold of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes then the sky is the limit in both real and fantasy football.

Hurts ran it five more times than Fields last year and is regarded as a top three QB in fantasy ball by most. So Fields can do both. Hurts did it by finishing as a top-10 passer in yardage and top half of the league in passing accuracy.

2. Will DJ Moore Get Enough Targets to Take Him As a Top Fantasy Receiver

If Fields is going to emerge as a potential top-10 passer, then Moore is going to be a major reason why. The thinking is with more of a balanced attack and the Bears being the league's top rushing team, Moore might have to be satisified with fewer targets. The Panthers were a top-10 rushing team last year and Moore had his streak of 1,100-yard receiving seasons ended.

However, one doesn't necessarily lead to the other. The Panthers were ninth in rushing attempts when Moore finished with a career-high 1,193 receiving yards in 2020.

The key is the quarterback and the offense's ability to sustain drives so Moore gets more chances, not necessarily being a team that ran the ball so often.

Also, the receiving corps makes more of an impact on Moore's ability to produce numbers. In 2021 he had 93 catches when no one else on the team had more than 53. Will Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney take targets away from Moore? It's possible to some small degree but Mooney operated best when he was a second receiver to Robinson. Claypool never had more than 62 catches yet, so he doesn't appear a threat to deprive Moore of opps, either.

The Bears are looking for the receivers to complement each other and it will start with Moore and then trickle down to the others. SI.com has Moore ranked 27th best receiver for fantasy ball. That's a rank deserving of an upgrade.

3. Will the Bears Running Back Plan Limit Khalil Herbert's Fantasy Value?

Of course. There's no other way to put it.

It doesn't mean he'll be less effective than last season but the bigger numbers a top fantasy back might put up would seem to be beyond his reach because the backfield-by-committee approach is the way they're going. They didn't do this with Montgomery as their lead back. They used Herbert to spell him and Montgomery still came in well over 200 carries.

"It's not gonna be just one guy," running backs coach David Walker said. "We all know that. For us feeling comfortable with multiple guys, that's a luxury. That's a great thing to have, not a problem."

What could keep Herbert's opportunities up is if he becomes a better pass blocker. Pro Football Focus last year had him in the top 32 among running backs as a pass blocker so it wouldn't be a stretch for him to improve and avoid coming off the field in passing situations.

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Roschon Johnson could eventually take away some of Herbert's carries as he can be an all-around back. However, Herbert has an ability Johnson lacks—he has much better speed. Johnson ran a 4.58 40, which is only slightly better than Montgomery did.

"Just his ability to hit the home run, he can really do a great job of hitting the home run," Eberflus said of Herbert. "He's got great vision. He's got great cut-back ability. He can take the ball outside and bounce it outside, but he's really good at cutting it back when it's there."

If Herbert can maintain a high level of breakaway runs, he'll still retain high fantasy value even if the Bears insist on alternating backs.

4. Does Robert Tonyan's Presence Limit Cole Kmet's Fantasy Value?

Kmet has good fantasy value if he's going to catch touchdown passes at a rate like last year, particularly in the red zone. He learned how to be the red zone tight end who produces. Kmet went from zero TD catches in the red zone in 2021 to making six of his seven TD catches on red zone passes last year. This was no easy task when Fields often could simply run it in for a TD rather than flip one to the tight end. The Bears had no real receiving threat at tight end last year other than Kmet, so Tonyan does give them another after he made 53 catches last year in Green Bay but it's more a case where he is still below Kmet on the depth chart and will be on the field in specific personnel packages. It's possible the number of chances could drop for Kmet, but he thinks all the receivers including tight ends will benefit from DJ Moore being on the field opening things up by drawing away the coverage. There could be more yards after the catch for tight ends.

"For the tight end room, it's big," Kmet said. "You've got a guy that can threaten vertically and can do those things and open up zone and holes for us."

5. Where would it be safe taking Claypool or Mooney

Later. Much later. Mooney is still rehabbing from a season-ending ankle injury, anyway. Claypool is being talked up by coaches but hasn't been available the last two weeks of OTAs due to a soft tissue injury. They both need more reps with Fields and with Moore on the field at the same time.

It's possible both or either of those receivers could emerge with a big year because this happened in Carolina with the receiver formerly named Robbie Anderson and now Chosen Anderson. Moore had no problem operating as a big-play receiver when Anderson had 95 catches for 1,096 yards in 2020. It was Moore's biggest receiving yardage season. So if Fields and Mooney started clicking again, or if Claypool suddenly started making plays downfield, it could work with Moore involved in the attack. Regardless, both of those receivers would rate well down the line. Michael Fabiano of SI.com has Claypool ranked 71st among wide receivers and in an SI expert mock fantasy draft with 12 teams Claypool did not even get selected.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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