How to Cash in on Bears and Broncos

Opponent makes all the difference for fantasy football owners.

Knowing this, it's easy to forecast a rebound for Justin Fields in Week 4 for at least fantasy purposes.

It's reflected in the rankings.

Like everyone else, SI.com fantasy expert Michael Fabiano saw Fields as someone who would struggle last week but now he has the Bears QB as a play for this week .

"Denver has also allowed more than 20 fantasy points to both Sam Howell and Tua Tagovailoa in their last two contests," Fabiano points out.

Last week, Fantasypros.com ranked Fields 24th among fantasy players. This week he's back up to No. 10.

The ability of Tagovailoa to torch the Broncos and Denver's inability to stop either the run or pass has been apparent in the last two games, not just last week. They've given up over 100 points in the past seven quarters.

A team struggling to find the end zone will remember letting Fields play the way he did last year might allow them their best chance to end the losing streak, although it isn't necessarily the best way for him to develop as a quarterback for the future.

At this point, the Bears can't worry about future or development. The stops need to be pulled out to end a losing streak and fantasy owners need to be prepared to capitalize.

This week's suggestions:

Start 'Em

1. Broncos QB Russell Wilson

He has the targets, the coach who has a brilliant offensive mind, has been as productive this season as in his best in Seattle, and better yet is facing a defense with a secondary full of young players waiting to make mistakes. Second-year safety is the most experienced player in their secondary, whether in the nickel or base package. Injuries have depleted the Bears secondary just like late last season. If the Bears don't manage a pass rush ( and why would they be able to start now?) then Wilson should have a big fantasy day.

2. Bears QB Justin Fields

All indications are the Bears will be going back to their ground-based attack like last year, then try to play off of it with their passing. It's going to be more basic. A stronger defense might not have problems stopping this but the Broncos are weak on defense, as 70 points allowed last week say. To top it off, two of Denver's better players on defense are Frank Clark and Josey Jewell and both are out for the game. Starting safety Justin Simmons is questionble. Don't get carried away with huge passing numbers from the Bears because Denver still has Patrick Surtain II, but the rushing attack should flourish, including Fields and play-action or RPO should also work in the passing game.

3. Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy

He has been taken off the injury reports and even while playing hurt he had more receptions than any receiver except Courtland Sutton. Anticipate bigger plays considering the Bears slot defender for this week is Greg Stroman Jr., a practice squad player who must start because of injuries to Kyler Gordon and Josh Blackwell.

4. Broncos WR Courtland Sutton

With 17 catches for 189 yards, Sutton is going to get to line up against rookie fifth-rounder Terell Smith. Sutton is leading Denver with 17 catches and at 6-foot-4, 216 pounds, has a three-inch height advantage. Smith has been targeted nine times, allowing four receptions in his career, so his 77.5 passer rating against doesn't mean at alot yet. Wilson loves throwing the deep ball and expect him to let it fly with Sutton.

5. Bears WR Darnell Mooney

After the way things have gone for Fields, expect him to go back to his most familiar target plenty. The Broncos need to put Patrick Surtain on DJ Moore, so Mooney will have the lower end of coverage and should be able to work free of coverage over the top.

6. Bears WR DJ Moore

Moore really hasn't been able to face an average or mediocre defense yet, and even if Surtain is on him he'll find more soft spots in the secondary than against Green Bay, Tampa Bay and Kansas City. He managed six catches against the Buccaneers and they might have been the weakest defense the Bears faced. Moore will make his share of catches and for bigger yards.

7. Bears RB Khalil Herbert

With 23 carries in three games, Herbert has to be yearning for the days when he was the No. 2 back and averaged 9.9 carries a game, as opposed to now as the starter and averaging 7.7 carries a game. They're going to give him and Roschon Johnson more carries in this one. Herbert should get his speed on display.

8. Broncos WR Marvin Mims

A good smaller counter-punch to the main Broncos receivers, Mims is a tremendous yards-after-catch threat. Because of his success as a return man, his offensive contributions get overlooked. He's averaging an NFL high of 27.9 yards a catch. Wilson is not above distributing the ball to other receivers.

9. Bears RB Roschon Johnson

The fumble Herbert had last week wasn't what coaches were looking for, and if Herbert isn't having success against Denver then expect they'll quickly go to Johnson for most of their runs. His power could be of help even in the wide zone. At worst, expect him to get 30% of their rushing attempts.

10. Broncos RB Samaje Perine

Payton offenses always hurt the Bears in the past with the receiving back. Javonte Williams is not a bigger play threat but Perine can be a good target in the passing game on screens or swinging out of the backfield. Especially underneath the cover-2, Perine can damage the Bears as a receiver with the experience of seven years and one who has had nine catches for 8 yards a catch this year.

Sit 'Em

1. Bears TE Cole Kmet

Kmet's role in this one likely is to be more that of the run blocker. He talked at length about needing to get the ground game going and Chase Claypool said Friday they're going to go more to a power game with the offense. Less targets for Kmet, who is tied for the Bears lead in receptions with Moore at 11.

2. Broncos TE Adam Trautman

He hasn't lived up to the expectations some had for him coming out of collegge as the new George Kittle and with five catches for 34 yards while facing coverage from T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds, the tight end shouldn't find it easy to hurt the Bears. Sure, Travis Kelce did. Trautman is no Kelce and it goes beyond the fact he isn't dating Taylor Swift.

3. Broncos RB Javonte Williams

The Bears defense has done at least one thing right. They have been limiting bigger gains by opponents in the run game. Williams is averaging a career-low 3.8 yards a carry and hasn't gone anywhere with his eight receptions, either, at 5.3 yards a catch. The main reason he's a sit here is with so much success in the passing game against the Bears secondary, it would be silly for Denver to worry too much about running it.

4. Bears WR Chase Claypool

After his comments on Friday it would appear he has settled in as a blocker.

5. Broncos WR Brandon Johnson

With Jeudy healthier and taking up more targets, it would seem the Z-receiver will have less role. Mims will get more because of his explosiveness after the catch. Johnson has had a bigger role to date but it should be somewhat diminished.

Defense

What defense? The Nuggets allow fewer points a game than the Broncos and the Bears defensive strength is their secondary, which is on IR.

If you're using one of these two team defenses then you've already resigned yourself to missing the fantasy league playoffs.

If you're looking for a big play or two in an IDP league, Tyrique Stevenson might be a guy. He's adept at going up and wrestling away an interception on cover-2 beaters or back-shoulder throws. Also, cornerback Patrick Surtain from Denver because Fields is prone to throwing too late and into coverage.

The Betting Window

The Line: Broncos by 3 1/2 (Over/under 46).

BearDigest Record: 2-1 straight up, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 vs. over/under.

The Pick: Broncos 24, Bears 20

It comes down to a close game and who do you want trying to get into position to win it, Russell Wilson or Justin Fields?

Wilson is 15th all time in leading comebacks in the fourth quarter. He has 27 fourth-quarter comebacks and 35 game-winning drives led.

Fields is in his third year and has one fourth-quarter comeback and two game-winning drives. One of the game-winning drives was when the Bears just fell on the ball after a Roquan Smith interception and then kicked the winning field goal against Houston in their last home-field win, in Week 3 of 2022.

Top BearDigest Weekend Plays:

Last week: 2-3.

To Date: 6-8-1

Week 4 Best Bets

Seahawks at Giants Over 47

Falcons at Jaguars Under 42 1/2

Cowboys -6 over Patriots

Texans +3 over Steelers

Bengals -2 1/2 over Titans

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven