How to Cash in on Bears and Browns

With the playoffs underway in fantasy football, the stakes dictate who should play and sit for teams.

Some Bears or Cleveland Browns in this week's game might be routine plays in a regular season but with fewer fantasy players competing you're not reaching deep into a bench to throw someone onto the field who can be a surprise contributor for the week.

The stable plays are the best, but it doesn't mean you ignore injuries, either.

There are numerous injuries involved in this Bears and Browns matchup and they're not all on the injury report. Cleveland has exhausted its supply of tackles this year. The Browns are down to their fourth or fifth tackles and they're going against Montez Sweat.

Yet many fantasy advisors are putting Joe Flacco out as a player to pick up and play in the fantasy playoffs this week, even against a Bears defense surging toward the top and now No. 2 in interceptions.

Anyone who thinks they'll find big play secrets among the offensive players in the Week 15 game at Cleveland is fooling themselves.

This looks like a defensive struggle all the way and if there's a player who has the ability to alter the way the game is played and pull off a big victory it's the quarterback with multiple dimensions to his game and not the faded, old, pocket passer who is almost 39 years old.

These two defenses need to be pressured in multiple ways to score against them and Flacco only has one way to do it. The Browns could be playing max protect all day just to get him time to throw and hurt their own chances.

Here are the players in the Bears-Browns matchup who can help you win in fantasy this week.

Start 'Em

1. Browns RB Jerome Ford

The Browns are not going to beat the Bears defense by dropping back and throwing 50 times. They're going to need to mix it up between the ground and the air but not only that, they're going to need to use their backs as receivers against the zone coverage the Bears utilize. Ford can be that zone better in the passing game as someone with 35 catches already and 227 yards. He's been a better runner overall than Kareem Hunt, and could cause the Bears fits if Cleveland doesn't give up on the running game the way the Vikings and Lions both did at critical times in the last two Bears games.

2. Bears QB Justin Fields

When Fields goes up against really good defenses, he sometimes tends to abandon his targets and try to do everything himself. He'll not go through progressions before taking off with the run. He'll leave the pocket too soon. Also, the Bears have used him a lot lately on planned QB runs and they'll probably do this again because Cleveland's run defense is capable of stopping conventional running attacks. Expect Fields to be a big contributor. The Bears could be in comeback mode and he'll be picking up cheap yardage. Or he could be in panic mode trying to do it all himself. That's not good for the Bears but can be a big help to fantasy owners.

3. Browns TE David Njoku

He has more targets than anyone on the team except Amari Cooper, and he's only 13 behind the top Browns reciever. Njoku figures to be the target who gets used the most in this one because he's in the middle of the field and more easily spotted by Flacco, who hasn't played in the offense enough. Also, the Bears play a lot of zone defense and he'll find places to settle in over the middle. Also, the Bears have held both Sam LaPorta and T.J. Hockenson in check in consecutive games, so there's reason to believe they could do it to Njoku as well. But one key to playing tough defense on the tight end was Jaquan Brisker and he's suffering from a groin injury that can limit his play, or even keep him sidelined.

4. Bears WR DJ Moore

The Bears are past the point where they worry about what happens when a team puts Moore in the cloud, when the go two-man on him and try to keep him blanketed. Defenses haven't been able to stop him from getting open anyway. This isn't the Browns secondary that helped them vault to the top spot against the pass. It's not the same Browns defense overall. They are No. 1 against the pass still but allowing 279 yards and 235 in successive weeks is a sign of what injuries have done. They've lost safety Grant Delpit. Even if they have cornerback Denzel Ward back, and this hasn't been guaranteed yet, he's going to need to knock off rust. Their pass rush will be less effective without Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, who is second in sacks and stepped up with Myles Garrett trying to play through injury. Another key defensive player they could be without is defensive tackle Jordan Elliott, who helps Dalvin Tomlinson inside against the run and also has had a rush push. If they can get the time to throw, all the injuries can add up. Moore could find time to beat even two-man coverage.

5. Browns WR Amari Cooper

He isn't likely to pile up a big catch total against this Bears defense, especially if they assign Jaylon Johnson to him all over the field. However, Cooper is one of those receivers who makes teh big catch along the sideline even when perfectly blanketed. With Dallas he did this a few times against the Bears even when he couldn't have been covered better. Expect a few bigger catches by Cooper along the sidelines. The cover-2 beater is something Flacco has always been able to throw and finding that soft spot between the safety and the cornerback in the zone is something Cooper can do.

6. Bears RB D'Onta Foreman

A place the Browns have leaked most is on the ground. With Fields there to take their attention up in the run game, Foreman should be all the more able to exploit that soft area against a wide-zone look like the Browns will run on occasion, or to smash away at the edges. Myles Garrett has injury issues and has become a little less physical. The Browns linebackers are not the highest quality and they like to get into nickel a lot just like the Bears. Foreman could be the sledge hammer needed against a team that has allowed an average of 125 yards on the ground to the last five opponents, one that gave up 172 and 169 in successive games to the Steelers and Broncos in Weeks 11 and 12. Even a team as disinterested in running as the Rams pounded the Browns for 120 yards two weeks ago.

7. Browns QB Joe Flacco

He might be a good pickup for those who play weekly fantasy football and are not in a conventional league. Otherwise, playing him against the Bears defense just as your quarterback in the playoffs is asking for trouble. He had one good game so far. The other game against the Rams was one where he showed ability to pick things up quickly but couldn't get it done. Michael Fabiano of Sports Illustrated has him listed as someone to pick up and play. Can't advise that here. It's a long shot. Flacco might win this game in a low-scoring battle against the Bears like the one he played against them while with Denver in 2019 when he lost on a last-second 53-yard field goal by Eddy Piniero. But they're not winning a game because of his big numbers against this Bears defense unless you see a total breakdown of the Bears pass rush with the loss of Yannick Ngakoue. That doesn't seem likely considering Ngakoue only had four sacks, anyway.

Sit 'Em

1. Browns RB Kareem Hunt

This is a tough call. It's possible Hunt could find yards against a scheme trying to get by with six players in the box or one playing nickel plenty. But even when the Bears look like they're back in zone, they send Brisker up in run support and have been getting stops. T.J. Edwards is another reason not to get too excited about a running back from a Bears opponent. So is the injury situation on the Browns offensive line. Not having center Ethan Pocic and the two injured tackles make it less likely they're going to be attacking. Also, gaurd Joel Bitonio has been hurt all week, although he's likely to play.

2. Browns WR Elijah Moore

It's been a strong season for Moore but Kyler Gordon over the past three games has made huge strides toward being able to lock down slot receivers. Also, considering Flacco's lack of knowledge about the Browns offense, getting through his reads past the main target and beyond the tight end or backs seems less likely.

3. Bears WR Darnell Mooney

There is more of a chance of Mooney coming up with bigger numbers this week than in some of the recent games. This is the type of scenario when he had a big game against New Orleans. It's a strong defense they Bears face from outside the division and it's on the road. The Saints bracketed Moore much of the day and he still had some catches but until he started making plays they were using Mooney much more extensively. But that was with Tyson Bagent at quarterback. Fields seems unable or unwilling to get beyond Moore, Cole Kmet and the backs to Mooney in his progression. Besides, in fantasy playoffs no one is digging down this far on their roster for a receiver struggling to get more catches the Mooney has been.

4. Bears TE Cole Kmet

The Bears are more likely to use Kmet to help chip or keep the Browns edge rusher at bay than they are to make him a focus of their passing game the way they did against the Lions and Vikings in their last two games.

5. Browns WR Cedric Tillman

Tillman is a non-start for the same reason as Mooney. It's too late in the year to expect he'll suddenly produce big numbers in a critical game against a good defense. He's much more likely to be the victim of DPI than of making numerous big catches.

Defense

Either team would be a good choice for a team defensive play this week. The Browns are just tough overall at home, using that advantage well. The Bears are No. 2 against the run and their defense has 11 takeaways since Week 11, second most in the NFL in that period. Since Week 11, the Bears have recorded nine interceptions, most in the NFL, and 11 total takeaways, second-most in the NFL (Giants-12). They're No. 1 in the NFL in passer rating allowed (70.7) since Week 9 and eighth in points allowed (18.7) since then. It would be easy to see a well-oiled passing machine come in and take the Bears pass defense back a peg or two but they just faced a well-oiled passing machine with a QB who has been playing all year and totally shut down the Lions. Now the Browns are going to do something different using a QB they just put in the lineup a few games ago? Doesn't seem likely.

In IDP leagues, look for something good from Eddie Jackson. Flacco will throw it up and Jackson might be back floating deep. Sweat might get more double teams but he's also going to get a lot more playing time as the Bears had been holding back his play count. That's likely to end with Ngakoue gone. He's another good play. Of course Myle Garrett is a play. He would be if he had two more injuries than the ones he already has. Another is Za'Darius Smith because of how well he always plays against the Bears.

The Betting Window

These Thursday and Saturday games are choking off the betting supply and making it harder to produce winners but BearDigest power plays did exactly that last week again. A 3-2 week by power plays made it six straight weeks without a losing record for the NFL best bets even while the Bears picks are tanking. That is a record of 21-8-1 in the last six weeks.

The Line: Browns by 3 (Over/under 38)

BearDigest Pick: Browns 19, Bears 17

BearDigest Record: 7-6 overall, 5-8 ATS, 6-7 over/under)

NFL Best Bets

2023 Record: 35-23-2

Week 14 Record: 3-2

Week 15 Top Plays

Giants +5 1/2 at Saints

Eagles -3 at Seahawks

Packers -3 1/2 over Buccaneers

Rams -6 1/2 over Commanders

Bills -2 1/2 over Cowboys

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven