Bears and Falcons Game Day Outlook

Atlanta Falcons (7-8) at Chicago Bears (6-9)

When: Noon, Sunday

Where: Soldier Field, Chicago

TV: CBS (Chris Lewis, Jason McCorty, Ross Tucker/Amanda Renner)

Streaming: fubo TV (free trial)

Radio: ESPN AM-1000, FM-100.3 (Jeff Joniak, Tom Thayer, Jason McKie), SiriusXM (Channel 81 or 228)

Spanish Radio: Latino Mix 93.5 (Omar Ramos, Miguel Esparza)

The Line: Bears by 2 1/2 (Over/under 38 1/2)

BearDigest Pick: Bears 20, Falcons 14

The Matchup: Two teams with faint playoff hopes, the Falcons still with a chance at the NFC South title and the Bears just one loss or wins by Seattle and the Rams away from elimination. There are other ways they're eliminated despite a win. The Falcons start QB Taylor Heinicke over Desmond Ridder after he led last week's 29-10 win over Indianapolis. The Falcons will be eliminated by losing, if Tampa Bay wins or ties.

The Series: The 30th game in a series that began with Atlanta's entry into the NFL in 1966. The Bears lead 15-14. The Falcons won the last game in Chicago 23-17 in the 2017 season opener. The Falcons also won last year in Atlanta 27-24. The teams split the last eight games.

The Coaches: Falcons coach Arthur Smith owns a 31-28 record in his third season, 1-0 against the Bears. Bears coach Matt Eberflus is in his second season and is 9-23 overall, 0-1 against the Falcons.

Last Week: Atlanta switched QBs to bench Ridder after getting beat 9-7 by Carolina and had a season-high scoring output in a 29-10 win over the Colts in Atlanta. Heinicke went 23 of 33 for 229 yards with a TD and Atlanta ran for 177 yards. The Bears ran for 250 yards and charged out to a 21-0 lead with touchdowns on three straight possessions in the first half before hanging on for a 27-16 win. Justin Fields threw a TD pass and ran for a TD and Khalil Herbert had a season-high 112 yards with a TD.

Matching Up: The Falcons are 16th on offense, 22nd at passing and eighth in rushing. The Falcons are 24th in points scored. Atlanta is ninth on defense, eighth against the pass and 15th against the run. The Falcons are sixth in scoring defense.

The Bears are 20th on offense, 28th at passing and second in rushing. The Bears are 21st in scoring. Chicago's defense is 12th overall, 25th against the pass and No. 1 against the run. The Bears are 21st in scoring defense

Stat Leaders: Heinicke has played in four games this season with three starts and is completing 59.8% (64 of 107) for 727 yards with four TDs and one interception for a passer rating of 88.8. He has run for 78 yards on 11 rushes. ... WR Drake London has the Falcons' team lead in receptions with 61 for 808 yards. TE Kyle Pitts and RB Bijan Robinson lead in TD catches with three each. ... Robinson is the leading rusher with 873 yards on 188 attempts (4.6 ypc) while backup QB Ridder leads in TD runs with five. ... S Jessie Bates III is the leading Falcons tackler with 117 and leads at interceptions (6) and forced fumbles (3). ... LB Kaden Elliss has the lead in tackles for loss with 10. OLB Arnold Ebiketie has the team lead in sacks with six.

Bears QB Justin Fields is completing 60.9% (196 of 322) for 2,146 yards with 15 TDs and nine interceptions. He has a passer rating of 84.5. Fields also leads the Bears in rushing with 585 yards on 105 carries. ... RB D'Onta Foreman leads in rushing touchdowns with four. ... WR DJ Moore has 1,141 yards, 83 receptions and seven TDs to lead the Bears in all receiving categories. ... The defense is led in tackles by T.J. Edwards with 143 tackles and by DT Justin Jones in tackles for loss with 10. DE Montez Sweat leads the Bears with six sacks and has 12 1/2 on the year including his 6 1/2 with Washington. ... CB Jaylon Johnson and LB Tremaine Edmunds share the lead in interceptions with four while CB Tyrique Stevenson has a team-high 11 pass defenses. Jaquan Brisker leads the Bears with two forced fumbles.

Injury Report:

For Atlanta, T Kaleb McGary (knee) is questionable. ... For the Bears, WR Darnell Mooney (concussion) is out. TE Cole Kmet (knee) and C Lucas Patrick (knee) are questionable.

Notable:

Robinson needs 87 yards rushing to break the Falcons rookie rushing record of 1,332 yards by William Andrews, set in 1979. He already set tte team running back receiving record with 48 catches. ... ... Atlanta's six sacks last week was its highest total in five years. ... With one reception, London will have more catches in his first two years (134) than any receiver in Falcons history. ... With one more win, the Falcons will have their most since they were 10-6 in 2017, their last playoff year. ... Sweat is trying to be the first player to lead two teams in sacks in the same season. His 6 1/2 sacks in Washington is still one better than Jonathan Allen's total of 5 1/2. ... The Bears rank first in runs of 10 yards or longer with 69, while Atlanta is tied for fourth with 55. ... Moore's 1,141 yards receiving ranks ninth for a Bears season in team history. He needs 11 catches, 53 yards and one TD for career single-season highs in each of those categories. ... The four wins by the Bears in Fields' starts is the most they've had with him starting in a season. ... Kmet has hit career bests in receptions (70) and yards (678) and needs one TD to tie last year's career-best seven TDs. ... Edwards needs 16 tackles in the last two games to beat his career best set in Philadelphia last year. ... Gametime forecasts call for temperatures at about freezing with a chance of snow. The Falcons haven't won a game in temperatures 40 degrees or colder since it was 29 degrees when they won a December, 2009 road game with the Jets (10-7).

Key Individual Matchups

Bears DE Montez Sweat vs. Falcons RT Kaleb McGary

It's not certain McGary will play because of his injury but if he does he is graded 23rd among NFL tackles by Pro Football Focus. He has allowed four sacks and committed three penalties. Sweat has 61 total pressures this year, one short of his career best. He has 34 since coming to the Bears. Sweat's reputation is as an edge rusher but also a stout edge defender against the run. He is ranked 22nd among edge defenders against the run.

Bears WR DJ Moore vs. Falcons CB Clark Phillips III

Moore averaged 71 yards receiving per game against the Falcons while playing in the NFC South. He's playing with a sore ankle, though, so his deep game abilities might be limited. Phillips is graded 86th out of 123 cornerbacks by PFF but the fourth-round rookie pick from Utah, has been extremely effective since taking over Nov. 12 with a 51.9 passer rating against, 39.1% completions allowed (9 of 23).

Bears DT Andrew Billings vs. Falcons RG Chris Lindstrom

Billings has been instrumental in the Bears becoming the No. 1 run defense but this week he faces the top-graded guard in the NFL according to PFF. Lindstrom has allowed three sacks but he is especially effective blocking on running plays, ranking first blocking runs. Considering center Drew Dalman grades as third-best PFF center, it could be the toughest task Billings has faced this season.

Bears LB Jack Sanborn vs. Falcons TE Jonnu Smith

Atlanta can be dangerous in 12 personnel with both its tight ends on the field and in that case the Bears likely would have Tremaine Edmunds or Jaquan Brisker in coverage responsibility on Kyle Pitts. But Smith is nearly as dangerous this year as Pitts and that would fall on the strong side linebacker. Sanborn's strength is as a run defender, playing downhill. He's not as good in coverage but his passer rating against is a respectable 87.8. However, he is the epitome of rallying to the ball. He allows 88% completions (22 of 25) but they don't seem to be in positions to do damage. Smith's contributions have slowed in recent game as he has just 13 catches in six games after making 3.8 catches per game in his first nine games.

Bears DE DeMarcus Walker vs. Falcons T Jake Matthews

The Falcons left tackle is vital in their running attack but he's going up against a defensive end the Bears signed because he could set the edge well and not because he is a standout edge rusher. Matthews is graded 30th among tackles by PFF but only 65th as a run blocker. The Falcons want to attack outside with Bijan Robinson in the running game but it's not so simple with Walker and Sweat as the bookend defensive ends.

Bears TE Cole Kmet vs. Falcons LB Nathan Landman

The 6-3, 235-pound Landman and LB Kaden Elliss make passing over the middle difficult in the short areas. Landman has a solid 80.9 passer rating against when targeted, according to Sportradar. Normally Kmet has little trouble with linebacker because of his quickness and 6-6 height but with a knee injury it could be difficult for him to get open going against two linebackers graded in the top 26 in the league by PFF. The injury can also affect his blocking on the edge in the running game.

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