Sticking with Past Success Best Bears Bet

The tendency is to trash the past while facing Atlanta's porous pass defense but it needs to be done in a way that accentuates what the Bears do well now.

Atlanta is a team much like the Bears in that the Falcons play fundamental football sound enough to keep from getting blown out of most games, even against much better teams.

The Dirty Birds and Marcus Mariota stay in games they normally shouldn't. They have won a few they shouldn't have won and lost some they shouldn't have lost.

What they haven't done is what the Bears have done, and that's go on a pronlonged stretch of games where they couldn't close out at game's end.

Atlanta has been in all but one game until the end, and that was its loss to Cincinnati.

The Bears have to show they can take teams out by staying in it until the end but must prove they can get over the hump and actually finish it. Here are the three keys to doing this against the Atlanta Falcons.

1. Up-Front Games

The Bears probably are not going to totally shut down many teams on the ground. The closest they'll come was last week against Detroit when they played tricks with their defensive linemen by sliding them over one gap on some plays to cause disruption, a risky proposition for a team using a single-gap defensive approach. It worked, though, and they held Detroit to 95 rushing yards. They have given up less than 96 yards rushing in three of their last four games and lost three of those, so they haven't patented this approach as a solution to their miseries by any means. Still, they have to prevent the run against Atlanta in any way they can. The Falcons had at least 167 yards rushing in each of their four victories. It doesn't necessarily guarantee Atlanta a win to rush for big yards. They had 201 against the Chargers and the Saints and still lost. However, holding Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier and the Falcons rushing attack to 166 yards or less has been the common denominator in four of their defeats. It's a percentage play as much as anything. It's easier to see Atlanta beating any defense with their backs than with Mariota's arm. The Bears need to give themselves as much chance as possible by playing as many games with that front as they can and taking away the running attack.

2. Deep Destruction

It's critical to prevent Mariota from throwing deep against the secondary to Drake London or Kyle Pitts or from throwing short for big yardage after the catch. So they need to play safe coverage in back and rally hard and fast to the ball on the underneath routes. The tackle is critical on such plays.

"I would suggest they are probably playing a lot of man coverage against him because they have been effective running the ball and he's been a quarterback that can run the ball also and a lot of teams do that," coach Matt Eberflus said. "Now, in the passing game it creates windows. It creates one-on-one matchups and they certainly have some receivers who can do that. I think some quarterbacks are comfortable against certain coverages and some they aren't. That's probably a comfortable coverage for him."

But the Bears are not a comfortable man team. They will find ways to play zone at all costs.

When Mariota has been at his best, he basically isplaying into the strengths the Bears secondary has shown to have throughout the year, although mostly earlier when they still had a better complementary pass rush. Mariota was at his best over a three-game stretch when he had yards-per-attempt averages of 9.04 yards or higher. He did this against the 49ers, Bengals and Panthers and won two of those games. Then the Chargers limited him to 5.6 and Tampa Bay had limited him to 5.9. In both of those the Falcons struggled all game on offense. It takes sure tackling and sure downfield coverage to accomplish this, but if Jaylon Johnson really is past his oblique injury and starts, the Bears appear capable of achieving necessary coverage style and numbers to force Mariota back into an uncomfortable situation.

3. To Thine Own Self Be True

The Falcons are a team more susceptible to the pass than most the Bears have faced. They've yielded the most passing yards in the league. 

This doesn't mean the Bears suddenly trash what has worked for them with Justin Fields' planned runs and his scrambles and try to strike from a more conventional offense. The Bears haven't been able to do this all year, it only means they'll be in uncomfortable and unsuccessful positions if they're trying to do what hasn't worked for them all year regardless of Atlanta's weaknesses. Simply, they need to keep attacking with Fields as they have, running the ball, scrambling, and then sprinkle in attempts at downfield passing or with screens to catch Atlanta for big strikes. The big passing yardage is available against the Falcons but it won't come unless the Bears are using play-action and bootleg action to get it deep, or with screens.

The Falcons defense hasn't faced a scrambler of Fields' ability yet this year. Then again, there aren't many of that ability to face. Atlanta needs to experience the full effect of Justin Fields and then the Bears can reap the benefits both on the ground and through the air.

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