Bears Stock Apparently Rising Rapidly

There are a few ways to rate a team's schedule for degree of difficulty.

There's the betting viewpoint and Sharp Football Analysis offers this by using projected over/under win totals. They determined the Bears have the fifth-easiest schedule this year, although they said fourth-easiest last year and it turned out to be the toughest schedule based on teams' actual wins last season.

The standard way is with winning percentage of opponents from last season.

Never content with actual numbers, the analytical website Pro Football Focus has sought out more definitive proof of schedule difficulty than the actual winning percentages of opponents. They say they have their own formula in and have ranked the schedules of NFL teams in terms of difficulty accordingly.

It's not surprising the Bears rate ninth easiest. Based on actual win percentages of opponents, their schedule is tied for eighth so PFF seems to be splitting hairs here. The story by Amelia Probst mentions the Bears' opportunity late, after their bye, often cited as a key point in other scheduling articles. Their win total projection is 6.7. People really need to get off these fractions.

Are Bears Really a Toughest Game?

The really interesting aspect of this article comes from their easiest and hardest game projections listed for each team.

For the Bears, the hardest is obviously Kansas City in Week 3. The easiest is probably as predictable but it's interesting. It's the Week 10 home game with Carolina.

Facing rookie quarterback Bryce Young at home should be easier but the game is also a fascinating matchup for a couple of other reasons.

For one, it's a Thursday night game. Facing a rookie quarterback with shorter preparation time, with a new coaching staff, a rebuilding team at that, is going to be much easier than having a Tom Brady come in on a Thursday night like the Bears had in 2020, or even last year when Washington's dominant defensive line came to Soldier Field.

All of this is nice but the best part about the game for the Bears is not a rookie QB exposed to no preparation time or the fact it's a chance for DJ Moore and possibly D'Onta Foreman to exact revenge on their old team in a game pitting offseason trading partners.

Instead, it's how the Bears can contribute to their own future assets. The Panthers being their easiest opponent could mean Carolina rates right there as possibly the league's worst team. The Bears would love for Carolina to finish with the worst record because it obviously means the first pick in the NFL draft would again belong to Chicago based on the trade from earlier this year.

Would GM Ryan Poles trade it away again? It's less likely if there are pass rushers of higher quality available. It's less likely if Justin Fields fails to live up to standards the coaching staff holds for him because USC's Caleb Williams would be available. It's less likely because the best receiver since Justin Jefferson could be available to them at No. 1, Marvin Harrison Jr.

So the Bears could have a real opportunity to influence their future in the draft by winning this game.

While all of this is intriguing, the best part of this story from the Bears' standpoint is in the analysis of the first team, the one rated to have the easiest schedule in the league.

It's the New Orleans Saints.

Saints Alive!

The hardest game on the schedule for the Saints this year? PFF says it's the Chicago Bears.

PFF must really think the Bears are going to improve drastically if they're going to be the toughest game on anyone's schedule. These are the same Bears the Saints have beaten seven straight times.

The Saints have to play Jacksonville. They play Tampa Bay twice and the Buccaneers won the NFC South last year. They play the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions and they also play the New York Giants, a team seemingly on the rise and in possession of a playoff win from last year.

Yet, PFF regards the game against the Bears Nov. 5 at Soldier Field at noon as the toughest for New Orleans.

For the Bears, it's a shorter work week, too. They have a game on Sunday night at Los Angeles against the Chargers right before the New Orleans game, so they'll be on the red-eye back home and pretty much lose Monday as any sort of day of preparation for the Saints.

After last year's 3-14 debacle, it has to fire up Bears fans to know their team is regarded as the toughest opponent for anyone.

It's even more encouraging than knowing they can help influence whether they get the top pick in the draft next year, but can do it this time by winning a game instead of tanking.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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