Bears Capable of Surprising

Every team has X-factors, unknowns or players facing lower expectations who can suddenly step up and make a difference.

They can become major factors in their team's success as surprise players.

There are other types of X-factors, such as a player who is being counted on but delivers far above all reasonable expectations. Usually rookies can't be included in this group because every rookie is an unknown entity to a large extent.

The Bears could have several different players who make major impacts, either when little is expected or far beyond already high expectations.

5. Andrew Billings: The Bears talk until they are more blue in the face than those new helmets the Detroit Lions are going to wear this year about three technique and edge rusher.

The position few talk about is nose tackle, yet the Bears were next to last in run defense last season and did not have a steady, reliable nose all season. Billings is supposed to be this, although his career has hardly taken off. He is coming off a good season, though.

The one technique or nose in this Bears defensive scheme has as part of his responsibility making sure the center doesn't double-team the three technique. They didn't get the job done last year with Armon Watts, Angelo Blackson and Mike Pennel manning the spot. All Bears defensive tackles were in the bottom third last year in Pro Football Focus grades, but Billings wasn't while playing for the Raiders last year. In fact, he was the NFL's 16th-highest graded player as an interior line defender.

Billings seemed on course for this type of production in his second year in 2019, but opted out in the pandemic season of 2020 and didn't regain that overal consistency in 2021.

"He's another nose tackle for us that's going to play that position and handle the A-gaps, make sure he takes care of some of the inside runs, but also the runs away from the tight end that he's in charge of," defensive line coach Travis Smith said. "For him, he's played in a similar system—not the same—back when he was in Cincinnati under (Mike) Zimmer where he was playing that nose, what we call the 'cocknose' here, where he's in charge of making sure that center never reaches (three technique Justin Jones).

"The techniques and the things we're asking of him are familiar. He played a little bit different system last year in Vegas and Cleveland before that, but now we're getting back to what he did for 3-4 years in Cincinnati."

As much as the Bears pass rush is a problem, if they don't solve the run defense's deficiencies then their pass rush doesn't even matter. Billings combined with Jones can be factors in helping make their new linebackers factors, as well.

If the Bears have the run stopped then Billings will be a major reason why, and as a player who gets little notoriety at nose tackle he certainly qualifies as an X-factor.

4. Velus Jones Jr.: Considering all the different directions defenses could be looking due to players the Bears assembled around Fields on offense, the opportunity for big plays could be right in front of Jones' face.

No Bears receiver is as flat-out fast as Jones at 4.31 seconds, a time from the combine and not a slanted pro day. He has the power at 6-foot, 200, to run through tackles and showed it a few times, like on a 42-yard rushing TD against Minnesota or a 44-yard reception he had against Buffalo. Jones displayed this speed/power more and more on kick returns as the season went along, finishing third in average per return (27.6) for players with at least 20 returns last season.

What Jones seemed to lack was a good comprehension of the offense or understanding the nuances of NFL route running.

Eberflus said there are signs he has improved in game knowledge and in other ways.

"Him knowing what to do and how to do it," coach Matt Eberflus said. "He's more consistent that way. And his work ethic has always been good. He's continued to do that.

"And he's been working on catching the punts, which is really good. Gonna be a big part for us if he can work that and be consistent going through camp and show he can do that on a full-time basis. So we're excited where that is."

Considering where Jones was as a punt returner last year with two muffs and poor decisions on other attempts, just catching the ball would be a huge step forward. The other areas he has been said to have improved are the big reasons he could be come an X-factor in opening up the Bears offense and return game.

3. Chase Claypool: Third receivers are not necessarily expected to be major impact players, but Claypool has the ingredients to do this. He actually did it already as the third receiver for a team in his rookie year with Pittsburgh. If he can take advantage of defenses shifting much of their attention in coverage to both DJ Moore and Darnell Mooney, the opportunity for Claypool is huge to do it again.

NFL observers tend to forget players quickly if they stop producing for a time. There's no doubt last year was an unproductive season for Claypool. With the new team, a chance to turn things around rapidly and his natural skill set, surrounded by the skepticism about his abilities that built up over a year when he wasn't in favorable situations to make plays, Claypool now has the opportunity to make an unexpected huge impact.

"He's a big target, as we know," receivers coach Tyke Tolbert said. "People forget that he's 230 pounds but he ran a 4.42. He's really fast. He was out here and he was getting behind the defense a few times (at OTAs). We're excited to have him."

The contract year and the critcism Claypool has received for last year's unimpressive effort after coming to Chicago at midseason alone could be enough to spark a turnaround.

2. Trevis Gipson: Concern over lack of a Bears edge rusher is entirely warranted. However, they do have someone on the roster who might not even be a starter at the moment and showed great promise as a rush man just two seasons ago. Gipson's 2022 season will be largely forgotten because of three sacks made but in 2021 he started nine games and came away with seven sacks as a replacment for injured Khalil Mack. He caused five fumbles. Gipson went through a similar unproductive season in terms of sacks in his rookie year as he adjusted to the league and playing a new position.

The difference last year was he was in an entirely new system and he actually didn't play poorly—he just didn't finish plays with sacks. Gipson had career highs of 11 quarterback hits, seven QB knockdowns and 18 pressures while making only three sacks. Although his tackles for loss dropped to four as he tried to master a one-gap front after playing in a two-gap, Gipson came out sixth in the NFL for run defense win rate among defensive ends according to ESPN.

The pass rush is where he can have the biggest impact on the team's success if he returns to the level he was at in his second year in 2021.

"You know sometimes it's not there," Eberflus said about Gipson. "The production is not there, you know? But he has the skillset to get it done, so we're always encouraging him. I mean we're always letting him do his thing.

"I think he has got to learn really how to deliver that counter move that he has."

Toss in the fact it's a contract year for him.

If Gipson puts all of what he learned together with the potential shown in Year 2, he could emerge as that player on the defensive front no one expected and help to create the edge rush they lacked last year.

1. Justin Fields: There's no other way to put Fields heading into this season. No one can really be certain what to expect from him, although there is heightened anticipation. However, he is in position to go far beyond what those expectations are, much like in Year 3 with Jalen Hurts. After Year 2, there wasn't a national consensus Hurts would ever ascend the way he did, so he was a real X-factor for the NFC champs when he went from an 87.2 passer rating to a 101.5.

Fields has flashed greatness but hasn't put it all together well enough even to lead the team to a .500 winning percentage in his starts. His big running plays last year made for an 1,100-yard rushing season. He has had singular success with big pass plays but not consistency on plays for shorter gains.

In Fields' case, the key is getting the ball out of his hands faster.

In offseason work when media was allowed to watch, improvement at this was noticeable but was it actually impactful enough? There were many times when he had the hitch or held the ball and balked after initially seeing his primary receiver wasn't open. It wasn't to the same degree as in the past, but it did happen.

"I think we're on track," Eberflus said. "I really do. I really feel good where we are. We have spent a lot of time and attention on that as well, and we're going to continue doing that during training camp."

It doesn't happen as easily as snapping their fingers or willing it to be done. It's going to require work all through training camp.

"It's just repetition," Eberflus said. "Coaching repetition, execution. Just go back and reset and say, 'Hey, what was the situation that caused that?' Work on it, refine and keep going forward. That's what you do."

Of course, the quarterback impacts a team more than any other position.

If Fields finds the consistency he has lacked for two seasons with two different offenses and coaching staffs, there's no telling where he can end up individually and as the team leader.

The team improvement might go off the chart, the way it did for Hurts. In that way, Fields can be their truly biggest X-factor.

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