Cashing in on the Bears and Patriots

The connection is an easy one to make for fantasy owners who might think Justin Fields is in for a breakout game, the kind of big fantasy production to make them go away from a starter to a backup for at least this week.

Fields would be a backup for any fantasy owner who would have him at this point, but this isn't the week to suddenly elevate his status.

The idea that the Bears are facing a team that plays predominantly man-to-man defense and it's a situation not entirely unlike last year's Pittsburgh game could get some to expect a big night from Fields.

Fields did burn the Steelers repeatedly last year buy these are two different situations.

The Steelers defense Fields torched last year was the worst run defense in the NFL. They had to overprotect against the run and it left opportunities in the passing game.

This Patriots defense is fairly balanced between being able to stop the run and the pass. They're especially effective despite lacking a real pedigree player for pass coverage in their secondary aside from Devin McCourty, who is older than some teams' assistant coaches.

New England's passer rating against of 81.1 is ninth in the league, right there behind the Bears' 79.9. They're third in passing yards allowed, tied for seventh with sixth interceptions and most important of all are 12th overall and the seventh-best scoring defense.

They also put proper amounts of heat on the quarterback with 17 sacks, six more than the Bears.

That was a Steelers team with many faults defensively and Fields' big game came at the expense of an average opponent, even if they played a lot of the same types of coverages as New England.

Some similarities exist but not enough to think Fields would have a huge breakthrough on MNF this week.

Here are more appropriate suggestions for fantasy football involving the Patriots and Bears.

Fantasy Football Forecast

Play 'Em

1. Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson

With a 5.1-yard average, there's plenty to like and he has 227 pounds to leverage against a run defense that has held only one opponent below 100 team yards rushing. Topping his career best of 161 yards against the Lions two weeks ago might be difficult to achieve because the Patriots will likely go to a couple runners. They're likely to have great success on the ground whatever back they put on the field, and this could take away some carries from Stevenson. Still a 100-plus yards with a touchdown or two doesn't seem unrealistic at all.

2. Patriots TE Hunter Henry

The Bears want to play cover-2 and when they do one obvious target under the umbrella coverage is always the tight end. The Vikings hurt the Bears with Irv Smith Jr. in the second half of their game when the Bears went back to playing a great deal more cover-2 because they play that coverage well. New England uses both Henry and Jonnu Smith well as receivers and Henry in particular has been able to pile up bigger yardage considering his position. He averages 12 yards a catch and has 13 receptions on the year. A five- or six-catch night isn't out of the question considering the Patriots love the multiple tight end packages.

3. Patriots WR Jakobi Meyers

An impressive producer despite being undrafted out of North Carolina State, Meyers is a player for the Bears to watch in free agency next year. His 24 receptions have come despite playing only in four games due to injuries, and also has had the handicap of chasing passes from two different quarterbacks for 321 yards and a TD. It's safe to assume whatever QB they put on the field, the Patriots will have several opportunities for big plays to their best target at 6-foot-2, 200 pounds. If the Bears put Jaylon Jones on him, it could reduce his impact somewhat. But with DeVante Parker, Tyquan Thornton and Kendrick bourne also available, it's unlikely the Bears would want to make any particular pass catcher the focal point of their coverage and go away from basic cover-2. Particularly after their running game has been working, they'll look to him in play-action.

4. Patriots WR DeVante Parker

Rather than multitudes of catches, a few really big plays seem more likely for Parker as the Bears defense scrambles about trying to plug holes.

5. Bears RB David Montgomery

Montgomery has had a few weeks since his injury now and is fully healthy, and he could be a bit more motivated after seeing Khalil Herbert piling up big yardage. Also, more than anything else, he is important in the passing game as their best receiver out of the backfield. The Bears figure to be trailing much of the night in a game as an underdog of more than a touchdown. They'll be dumping it down to Montgomery for yardage and catches.

6. Bears TE Cole Kmet

They will look to Kmet more in this one, partly because he'll be open more on short routes later in the game when trailing but also because it makes sense. When the Patriots defense had real problems early in the year, it gave up five touchdown passes in four games to tight ends.

7. Patriots RB Damien Harris

He's an excellent back in his own right and will get plenty of carries in this one despite being regarded as the backup to Stevenson.

At Your Own Risk

8. QB Bailey Zappe

The degree of certainty that he'll start is less than last week but more importantly they are facing a defense that will be playing plenty of zone and disguising looks to try and take advantage of a rookie. Zappe would be more likely to play it safer with shorter passes but the Patriots are even more likely to turn to the running game considering how weak the Bears are at stopping it.

9. QB Justin Fields

He could pile up some yards running against man-to-man coverage and even hit a strike in a blown man-to-man coverage. But expecting him to beat a Bill Belichick defense on the road in prime time is a bit much. Inexperienced QBs have problems figuring out what Belichick is up to and there's no reason to think otherwise with Fields.

Sit 'Em

10. Bears RB Khalil Herbert

One thing the Patriots pride themselves on is avoiding big plays on defense even if they play a lot of man-to-man coverage. The man-to-man lets them focus as much energy as possible on the line of scrimmage and stopping the running game. It also lets them bring a safety up in the box to stop the run. Herbert will find busting a long one extremely tough in this one. Ball security should be the real goal considering how good the Patriots are at stripping the football.

11. Bears WR N'Keal Harry

Better not to rush out and buy into the N'Keal Harry experience before it's apparent what they have planned for him. The Patriots know what his weaknesses are. Combine this with the lack of practice time with Fields to date and even in the red zone this is a risky play. And as for that, talk in the offseason that the Bears were getting a 6-foot-4, 225-pound receiver is way off. Harry can't be taller than 6-2.

12. Bears WR Darnell Mooney

One thing Belichick is known for above all else is making teams play "left-handed," or taking away what an opponent wants to do or does best. Mooney has been targeted 33 times by Fields and all five other Bears wide receivers only 35 times. So obviously New England will be focused on taking away Mooney.

13. Patriots WR Nelson Agholor

He's injured. It's a hamstring and he is a speed receiver. So that's about all you need to know.

14. Patriots QB Mac Jones

They're not throwing a quarterback coming off a high ankle sprain onto the field without seeing him go through full practice and he hasn't had one of those in weeks. If it was desperation time, it's possible they would do this. But against the Bears, at home in October? It doesn't make sense to risk Jones at all until he's fully operational and that means full practices.

Defense

Of course you play the Patriots as a team defense. This might be the biggest lock on the board for fantasy, and also on the betting line. The Browns managed 15 points at home against them and the league's highest scoring team at the time, the Lions, had nothing on the scoreboard to show for a full game. The Patriots are figuring it out on defense and this is bad news for the AFC. Besides, the Bears scored seven points at home against the Commanders. What are they going to do in prime time on the road against New England and Bill Belichick?

In IDP leagues, Matt Judon is a logical play considering his edge rushing for New England is producing a sack a game with one forced fumble.

Best Bears Bets

Point Spread and Total

The Line: Patriots by 8. Over/under 39 1/2.

The Patriots look solid, as does the under and both plays are preferable to any of the possible prop bets in this. The secretive ways of Bill Belichick make props tough to determine in their games. The line on this game started at 6 or 6 1/2 and it took about a day for it to shoot up to eight.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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